Thursday, April 9, 2009

Why I Can't take picks from someone else- or give my picks away?

I was reading a stock market analysis paper today.  It was about Elliot Wave theory (my current subject of interest) and the writer seemed so asinine.  He was just parroting what he heard in a re-packaged form. 

It got me thinking about the value of original research and the herd mentality, which is a very powerful human instinct.  And I realized that if I searched long enough, I could fine people betting on both sides of any issue.  People predicting opposite outcomes.  And I realized that taking any advice from anyone meant that I was pre-filtering the advice.  

There is simply so much advice out there.  It is impossible to avoid.  And the over-abundance of advice and re-packaged advice and rumors and parrotings means that it is impossible to determine who the researchers are.  Who the people actually making the picks are.  

And even the people making the predictions aren't insulated from other people making picks.  They have reputations, friends, track records, histories, and critics.  It is one gigantic, incestuous loop.  

So much so, with so many reactions and counteractions, that no data I receive is untainted, is unbiased.  When people get more information, it rarely changes their view.  It simply makes them more certain.  They give less weight to contradicting data and more weight to affirmative data.  

We are all bodily creatures, unable to escape our brain, our chemical dependent hardware, swimming in a sea of chemicals and lights and sounds.  There are too many variables to filter out.  
The solution is to simply not take advice from anyone.  All I can do is take as pure of data as I can and never read a sports column or analysis column again.  Unfortunately that will likely never happen.  

So much of the valuable data out there comes in the form of John Hollinger's numbers, and insights that I pick up from reading articles.  Its all so confusing.  

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