Bleacher Report Part 2....

I'm going to make my second attempt at writing on Bleacher Report. The articles will focus on my NBA Effort Model, statistical examples of it, and creating dialogue about it. Using the community I can hopefully vet my ideas. I might also mention the Martingale Idea, and try to test losing streaks for significance.

Research Topic: Blowout wins

It would be interesting to look at the worst defeat each team suffered each season, and then compare the score and spread of the next time they played that same opponent which handed them that bad loss.

That would bump up a teams effort for the Effort Model.

Performance = Skill*Effort

Payback in the NBA

Two recent upsets occurred in the NBA.

The first was the Knicks beating of the Mavs by a score of 128-94. This most unlikely of scores was apparently due to the Knicks wanting "payback" for the 50 point home loss they endured at the hands of the Mavericks on January 24th.

Some quotes from the game: "We felt they'd take us lightly," said Douglas, making his first start since Nov. 18. "A lot of teams look at the schedule and say, 'Oh, that's the Knicks. That's a win.' But we've got to come out and compete every night.

"Revenge is sweet sometimes. That's a really good team over there but we caught them at the right time. They were ripe for the picking," said New York reserve Al Harrington, who had 20 points. "When you're rolling along and the Knicks are coming in, you figure you can score 150 points on 'em in your sleep. But that Knick team didn't show up today. We caught 'em by surprise."

"They remembered [the blowout in New York]," said Dallas' Shawn Marion, who scored 14 points. "They even said something to me about it before the game. They said they were going to give us a spanking."

This appeared to be an easy win for the Mavericks, but the Knicks came out focused and perhaps fearful of what would happen if they didn't.

The second game also involves the Mavericks, this time against Boston.

For this game, Rasheed Wallace vowed payback for the twenty point home loss they suffered. And they were focused and barely won.

These two games support my "energy and skill" theory, that any team on any night plays at a certain level defined by their energy and innate skill. Basically, a teams innate skill at 100% focus and energy, multiplied by whatever percentage of energy a team is playing at for the night. Lets say an average game is played at 75% energy, playoffs close to 95%, etc.

NBA Leader Martingale System 4

The Lakers snapped their three game losing streak with a home win over Toronto, helped by a last second shot by Kobe Bryant. So the small sample of watching the Laker's losing streak while I blogged about losing streaks ended with a win. Infact, every losing streak ends with a win. The next two steps are to 1) create a summary of the final two seasons in NBA archives on ESPN's homepage and 2) start an excel sheet of pointspreads and moneylines to figure out an equation to go from point spread to moneylines. The reason for this is that while pointspread data for the last several seasons is readily available, moneyline data (to the best of my knowledge) is not. So I'll need to analyze that and come up with a model.

Then I can simulate (using excel) the bets I would have made the last couple of seasons on the NBA leaders and see how my bankroll would have done.

And that should be very interesting indeed.

NBA Leader Martingale System 3

Quite coincidentally, the Lakers (with the best record in the West) have now lost three games in a row and play at home against Toronto tonight. If I were using my system, then this would be a must-win game for the Lakers because I would have lost three in a row, doubling my bet each time. I'd be running out of funds!

So it'll be interesting to see the results of this game.

NBA Leader Martingale System

I just looked at the Vegas.com website and found no evidence of moneyline bets on the NBA. That freaked me out! So I went online and googled NBA point spread moneyline bets and was about to find a few websites that allowed it. As always, I'd much rather bet with a casino than a website. Interesting thing to look for the next time I'm in Vegas though.

NBA Leader Martingale System 2

I've already compiled statistics for the NBA seasons of 2008-2009 and 2007-2008. To recap, I'm looking at the statistics of the top four teams in the league (by record) and recording their total wins, record after twenty games, point differential, and their two longest losing streaks. All statistics taken from the ESPN archives.

2006-2007

Dallas, 67-15, +7.2, 4 games, 2 games, 14-6.

Phoenix, 61-21, +7.3, 4 games, 3 games, 14-6.

San Antonio, 58-24, +8.4, 3 games, 2 games, 15-5.

Detroit, 53-29, +4.2, 3 games, 2 games, 13-7.

2005-2006

Detroit, 64-18, +6.7, 2 games, 2 games, 17-3.

San Antonio, 63-19, +6.8, 2 games, 2 games, 16-4.

Dallas, 60-22, +6.1, 3 games, 2 games, 15-5.

Phoenix, 54-28, +5.5, 3 games, 2 games, 13-7.

2004-2005

Phoenix, 62-20, +7.1, 6 games, 2 games, 17-3.

San Antonio, 59-23, +7.8, 3 games, 2 games, 16-4.

Miami, 59-23, +6.5, 4 games, 2 games, 13-7.

Dallas, 58-24, +5.7, 3 games, 3 games, 13-7.

After this season, there are two left on ESPN's archives and I will probably stop there. The 2003-2004 and 2002-2003 seasons are remaining.