Friday, April 3, 2009

Summary of All Predictions so Far

With this blog post I want to summarize and categorize all my predictions that I've made in this blog so far.  Its time to be honest and get a little bit of accountability.  I need an accountabilabuddy, if you will.  

In no particular order:
2/19/09, I wrote that Tyson Chandler was back on the Hornets.  They had previously exploded on Orlando for a 32 point win; but then they discovered the trade was cancelled and I predicted they would be flat the next game or two.  Next two games: 111-115 OT loss at LA and a 14 point loss at Utah (second night of back to back).  
Total:  1-1

Lakers Watch series (six games).  They struggled at home against New Orleans and at Minnesota, not covering the spread.  Then they won big at Pheonix and at OKC.  Then they got demolished by Denver and lost at Pheonix.  They went 2-4 against the spread during that period.  I'm not sure hot much of it though is me fitting a curve to the data or the data to the curve.  I sort of arbitrarily picked the starting time.  But its a good observation to make and realize that teams to "step up" their intensity for a while but they have to pay the piper eventually.
Total: I don't know how to score this, so I'll leave it out.

3/4/09. I boldly predicted Dallas would win at San Antonio after being called out by Mark Cuban. They were 2 point underdogs.  They won outright.
Total:  2-1  

March 7th, 2009, Clippers article published on Bleacher Report.  I predict games I thinkt he Clippers will get blown out in.  Predictions in the article:
Clippers hosting Cleveland:  fail
Clippers at Detroit: Lost by 18.  Success. 
Clippers at Celtics: Lost by 13.  Success.  
Total:  4-2

Superbowl: I predicted (and bet 500) that the Cards would cover the spread.  They did.
Total: 5-2

Conference round: Eagles at Cardinals: I thought Cardinals would lose to the Eagles.  Failure!
Total: 5-3.

Divisional round: Ravens at Titans.  Center Mawae was out for Titans.  I thought that would swing it in the Ravens favor.  Result: Ravens win.  
Total: 6-3

Wildcard round: 1/9/09 post.  I thought Ravens would beat Dolphins (they did) and Colts would blow out Chargers.  Success, and failure.  

Total: 7-4

1/1/09: Predicted USC would beat Penn State handily.  They did.
Total: 8-4.  

12/26/08: Three bowl games predicted.  Results: Cal failed to cover spread, CMU lost, FSU covered.  Results:  1-2
Total: 9-6

Thats all the ones off the top of my head.  If I include the results from Lakers watch I'm 13-8.  Otherwise 9-6. 

Its not bad.  I need to continue to refine my theories and get better at detecting certain games that are likely to be predictable.  

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