Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Where do I go from here?

I need to get serious and rigorous in my hypothesizing and testing.  I have no database.  I have no knowledge of data-searching programs.  I have limited skills.  I have limited knowledge of NBA history and all the data I get is from secondary sources.  I can review blogs, websites, and watch videos all I want.  I have no primary source information.  There are many reasons why I will fail.  

I've studied football (both Pro and College) for several seasons and watched closely this year's NBA season.  I've been following point spreads closely for some time now.  So where do I go from here?  I have ideas that seem to be right.  I'm able (I think) to identify factors after the fact.  I need to make a database.  And I have no idea how to do that.  

Come to think of it, do I even need a statistical database?  The book Black Swan says that with more information I will be more confident in my picks but no less accurate.  Maybe I just need to keep observing and let my brain and its neural network do the work?

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