Trying to be like the CIA

  More good information from the CIA book:

There are several modes of analysis by which one might infer cause and effect. In more formal analysis, inferences are made through procedures that collectively comprise the scientific method. The scientist advances a hypothesis, then tests this hypothesis by the collection and statistical analysis of data on many instances of the phenomenon in question. Even then, causality cannot be proved beyond all possible doubt. The scientist seeks to disprove a hypothesis, not to confirm it. A hypothesis is accepted only when it cannot be rejected.

Essentially I need to become more like the CIA when I develop a hypothesis and check it.  Also consider that in my case I'm never going to be able to find absolute rules.  The situation and factors I am judging will always be obscured because I will never have all the information available, and the information I do have will always be gathered second-hand, through a media report.  Actually, if I watch video directly then I could.  Either watching games or you-tube clips of players.  

First-hand information and observations would definitely help.  If I watch the games myself and receive little second-hand information (filtered) then I could study my own patterns of observation and see what I bias.  

What I don't want to do is get into the business of constructing narratives.  Narratives, I'm learning, are the cause of many cognitive biases and much confusion of the part of people everywhere.  They assume causality and order in what is generally a chaotic world and unruly world.  I need to get more scientific in my research, my formulation of hypotheses, and my testing to look for significicance. 

Phoenix vs SacTown

Phoenix played the Kings in the second of a Home and home (with a few other games in between).  The Kings upset Phoenix at Sacramento.  The result was a major blowout of the Kings at home for Phoenix.  I've seen this many times before.  If a good team gets upset on the road, and they play that team at home soon after, it very requently results in a blow-out win for the superior team, now playing at home.  These little sequences occur frequently in the NBA season and are a nifty little opportunity.  

The Intelligence Analysts Toolkit

I need to create a formal "toolkit" for analyzing games, schedules, and circumstances.  I'm reading a book that my friend sent me, that is one of the CIA's reference books for intelligence analysts.  That is essentially what a sports bettor is: an intelligence analyst.   It is titled Psychology of Intelligence Analysis and can be found here.

A theory is a generalization based on the study of many examples of some phenomenon. It specifies that when a given set of conditions arises, certain other conditions will follow either with certainty or with some degree of probability. In other words, conclusions are judged to follow from a set of conditions and a finding that these conditions apply in the specific case being analyzed.

An analyst seeks understanding of current events by comparing them with historical precedents in the same country, or with similar events in other countries

Objectivity is gained by making assumptions explicit so that they may be examined and challenged, not by vain efforts to eliminate them from analysis.

Failure To Consider Diagnosticity of Evidence. In the absence of a complete set of alternative hypotheses, it is not possible to evaluate the "diagnosticity" of evidence. Unfortunately, many analysts are unfamiliar with the concept of diagnosticity of evidence. It refers to the extent to which any item of evidence helps the analyst determine the relative likelihood of alternative hypotheses.  Evidence is diagnostic when it influences an analyst's judgment on the relativelikelihood of the various hypotheses

Scientific method is based on the principle of rejecting hypotheses, while tentatively accepting only those hypotheses that cannot be refuted. Intuitive analysis, by comparison, generally concentrates on confirming a hypothesis and commonly accords more weight to evidence supporting a hypothesis than to evidence that weakens it.  (I think I do this (although I am in the formative stage of hypothesizing)).

Stech notes that in each of these highly successful efforts, the analysts employed procedures that "... facilitated the formulation and testing against each other of alternative hypothetical estimates of enemy intentions. Each of the three accounts stressed this pitting of competing hypotheses against the evidence."

This is basically the summary from Chapter four.  Some very interesting material, for sure.  

A Formal Thesis

What is the thesis of my research?  What is the purpose, the point, the grand scheme?

I believe that certain situations and factors are repeated on an annual basis that lead to significant investment opportunities for the astute fan of sports. Without getting too specific, groups of humans suffer from cognitive biases when judging likely outcomes and assigning probabilities to those outcomes. These errors are frequently repeated and lead to significant reward opportunties with relatively low risk.  These biases are magnified in both long term (season predictions) and short term (in game trading).  

I believe that effort trumps talent in professional sports leagues.  I can look at teams with added motivation, and I can look for teams with less motivation than their opponents.  Essentially, a demotivated team is as un-effective as a motivated team is effective.  Both disparities, if unnoticed by the general population, create investment opportunities.  This also manifests itself in "mini-playoff" games between good teams and bad teams.  

I believe that macro level trends of energy take course throughout the professional athlete season, most extensively in the NBA.  These macro trends must be studied and analyzed to be properly understood.  I also believe they are not understood or studied currently, and if mastered can lead to significant investment opportunities.  

I believe some factors are not accurately gauged by the betting and watching public.  These factors repeat themselves.

Lastly, I believe that an astute, focused, and educated person can consistently win games and make money betting on sports.  

Summary of All Predictions so Far

With this blog post I want to summarize and categorize all my predictions that I've made in this blog so far.  Its time to be honest and get a little bit of accountability.  I need an accountabilabuddy, if you will.  

In no particular order:

2/19/09, I wrote that Tyson Chandler was back on the Hornets.  They had previously exploded on Orlando for a 32 point win; but then they discovered the trade was cancelled and I predicted they would be flat the next game or two.  Next two games: 111-115 OT loss at LA and a 14 point loss at Utah (second night of back to back).  

Total:  1-1

Lakers Watch series (six games).  They struggled at home against New Orleans and at Minnesota, not covering the spread.  Then they won big at Pheonix and at OKC.  Then they got demolished by Denver and lost at Pheonix.  They went 2-4 against the spread during that period.  I'm not sure hot much of it though is me fitting a curve to the data or the data to the curve.  I sort of arbitrarily picked the starting time.  But its a good observation to make and realize that teams to "step up" their intensity for a while but they have to pay the piper eventually.

Total: I don't know how to score this, so I'll leave it out.

3/4/09. I boldly predicted Dallas would win at San Antonio after being called out by Mark Cuban. They were 2 point underdogs.  They won outright.

Total:  2-1  

March 7th, 2009, Clippers article published on Bleacher Report.  I predict games I thinkt he Clippers will get blown out in.  Predictions in the article:

Clippers hosting Cleveland:  fail

Clippers at Detroit: Lost by 18.  Success. 

Clippers at Celtics: Lost by 13.  Success.  

Total:  4-2

Superbowl: I predicted (and bet 500) that the Cards would cover the spread.  They did.

Total: 5-2

Conference round: Eagles at Cardinals: I thought Cardinals would lose to the Eagles.  Failure!

Total: 5-3.

Divisional round: Ravens at Titans.  Center Mawae was out for Titans.  I thought that would swing it in the Ravens favor.  Result: Ravens win.  

Total: 6-3

Wildcard round: 1/9/09 post.  I thought Ravens would beat Dolphins (they did) and Colts would blow out Chargers.  Success, and failure.  

Total: 7-4

1/1/09: Predicted USC would beat Penn State handily.  They did.

Total: 8-4.  

12/26/08: Three bowl games predicted.  Results: Cal failed to cover spread, CMU lost, FSU covered.  Results:  1-2

Total: 9-6

Thats all the ones off the top of my head.  If I include the results from Lakers watch I'm 13-8.  Otherwise 9-6. 

Its not bad.  I need to continue to refine my theories and get better at detecting certain games that are likely to be predictable.  

Wizards Cavs Part II

I read about how the Wizards were really flying around last night and really wanted a win.  The Cavs kept firing up three points and the Wizards kept driving to the rim to make contact.  The result:  the Wizards ekeing out a win.  The sports writer commented on how much more energetic the Wizards were compared to the Cavs.  This just shows that energy always trumps talent in the NBA.  At this level, whoever wants it more can still win the game if the other team is slacking off enough.  I suppose thats true at any level really.  

This definitely plays into the Effort Model.  

"This is our playoffs"

I've heard this phrase many a time.  Athletes on a losing team refer to some upcoming game as "their superbowl" or "their playoffs".  Just off the top of my head I can remember Ray Lewis talking about the Patriots when the Patriots were undefeated; he said that his team was not making the playoffs and that this game (which was on MNF) was their Superbowl.  They were crushed when they lost on a controversial referee call.  

I heard Raja Bell refer to their upcoming game against the Lakers as it being a playoff game for them.  And I heard Gilbert Arenas refer to their game against Cleveland this year as their playoff game.  It happens a few times a year, when a team with a losing record plays a rival or big-time team that they match up well against and they play as hard as they can.  They really believe they can win.  

And they usually do.  And if not, they at least cover the spread. In the NBA especially, certain teams just match up well against superior teams.  Not every team, obviously, but against that one special team they match up well.  Like the Warriors and Mavericks in the 2007 playoffs.  

But this is usually a rare occurance and I don't think it is ever reflected in the spread for games.  Nevertheless, this is a major factor in the outcome of the game. It is a gametype I need to look out for.  Its not necessarily a cognitive bias but it is definitely a game type.  

I call it "the playoff".  

The Cavs were 12 point road favorites to the Wizards.  The Wizards arena was sold-out.  Considering they have less than twenty wins this season, that is indicative of how much it was rocking.  Also, when the Lakers visited Charlotte this year, the stadium had its largest crowd....ever.

My 100th Post!

Well here is my 100th post on my blog Insights into Sports.  Incredible that I've made so many posts.  I have 210 profile views.  On Bleacher Report I've written four articles with a cumulative 1,886 article reads as of this writing.  Awesome.  I've done a lot but there is so much more that I could do.

The reason for this post though is to note that Jay Cutler has been traded from his team (the Denver Broncos) to the Bears.  The Bears are in the NFC while the Broncos are in the AFC.  This continues the trend of sending coaching talent and quarterbacks to opposing conferences so that they can't come back to haunt them.  To me it indicates a suspicion that someone's detailed knowledge of scheme and personnel could really hurt a former team.  

I've seen this many times and will be curious to see if the Bears play the Broncos.  If so, it is likely that Cutler would tear up the Broncos defense because he has seen them in practice for three years.  

New Concept: Effort Model

This new concept I just thought up I will name the effort model.  Basically it asserts that if you watch a typical sports game, the athletes are playing at 75% of their maximum effort.  Maximum effort is designated as what?  I haven't decided yet.  It could be game 7 or the NBA finals, but players are usually worn down by then.  It could be the singular game in which they give max effort and are also able to give max effort because they are young, fresh, don't have nagging injuries, etc.  Perhaps then there is also a moving value of how much max effort they can give out.  Effort being hustle, energy, phyiscality, etc.  We all know that physical play wears down opponents, but it also wears down the people playing that way.  Look at Kevin Garnett this season, he has played very hard and very physical and is now suffering from a knee ailment.  So this effort model concept is something I will be developing in the future.  

Ready to blog again

Wow.  I haven't blogged in nearly two weeks and haven't had a meaningful blog post in about three weeks.  Thats the longest stretch since I started the blog.  However, I'm done with Halo and so I should pick up the blogging pace like I did earlier.  I think one contributing factor was that I simply wasn't watching any sports, and its tough to blog when you don't ever watch sports.   

I'm still interested in the same things though and have stored up a few topics in my mind. First off, an article I read on Truehoop: 

EW YORK -- This is how Mike D'Antoni tells me the story the morning after Kobe Bryant came into the Garden and dropped a merciless 61 on his Knicks in early February, with a catalog of spin moves and fadeaways that had the sold-out crowd cheering the visiting Lakers:

D'Antoni passed Bryant near center court, walking onto the floor minutes before the house lights were dimmed for pregame introductions, and said, "Hey, Kobe, what's going on?"

This is a phrase D'Antoni uses the way your mom greets company at the door, asking folks to come in, sit down and talk a spell. It's a West Virginia welcome between friends.

D'Antoni was one of Bryant's idols when the kid was growing up in Italy and D'Antoni was starring in the Italian Professional League. Kobe wore D'Antoni's No. 8 as a young Laker. The two became brothers in arms while spending three years as part of Team USA, too. They won gold together.

"And he won't even look at me," D'Antoni says, raising both eyebrows.

No "Whassup, Mike?" no quick head bob, no raise of the eyebrows, nothing. Pursed lips. Boxer's shoulder wiggle. Steely, faraway stare.

D'Antoni laughs. Shakes his head a little. As if to say, I tell you what, that Kobe Bryant, he's pretty damn good.

"I knew right then we were f---ed."

thats an interesting story.  It shows how Kobe was motivated and picked up his game for the game in MSG.  I think that certain top-caliber players do pick and choose which games to ratchet up their focus and their energy.  As I've written about before, rarely do players give 100% effort.  They start out at around 75% effort and can go up or down depending on associated factors.