We are all guilty witnesses

I like LeBron James a lot. I rooted for him against the Pistons all those years he battled them in the E.C. I've been a game to watch him play and he was everything he is said to be. The only thing he's ever done that I disliked was "the Decision". And what makes me dislike it is not the actual decision or the way he did it, but that I was excited for the decision and so incredibly let down by it.

That is why so many people are disappointed by "The Decision". It sucked. The show was a piece of crap and afterwards, every single person watching had an epiphany and realized how deluded we had all become over this process. I am the first to admit how excited I was about "the Decision" and I spent hours thinking over the possibilities, reading about the different choices, day dreaming and discussing, and was ultimately disappointed.

I realized as I watched it that 29 cities and literally millions of people had been kicked in the stomach and were turning off their TVs, thousands of TVs every second until the only people left watching were Miami Heat fans and gluttons for punishment.

There was no way everyone could have been happy or satisfied but somehow, everyone convinced themselves that they both knew what he would do and that it would turn out favorably for them.

It was an impossible mixture of hope, willful ignorance, and vicarious living. And when LeBron said the words "South Beach" we all realized how foolish we had been. No one is actually mad at LeBron. We are simply mad at ourselves.

LeBron goes to Miami

Wow.

Thats all I have to say. What a terrible way to punch Cleveland in the stomach, btw. If Bill Simmons is right about this entire drama being a charade, and that those three planned it ahead of time, even more wow.

The interview was very, very bizarre. I'll watch it again but LeBron had a very strange expression when talking about his Mom.

And to be honest, I don't think they'll win the Championship. They are like a donut, with a giant hole in the middle. That said, they will be a beast in the regular season, and could very well challenge 70 wins as they steamroll all the weak teams in the league. Biggest games of the year will be versus the Celtics, Magic, and Lakers, and possibly the Thunder as well. That team is going to be strong, strong, strong in the years to come. Durant is becoming a natural leader; leading by example is the strongest method of leadership and he seems like a very honest and hard working man. As his personal expectations grow, he will become more demanding of his teammates.

But I digress. KD would make a great article for Bleacher Report.

LeBron is going to Cleveland, and I'm honestly not sure of their dominance. But its super impressive for Pat Riley to have swung this set up when it was least expected a month ago.

I also feel terrible for Cleveland and the way this all went down. LeBron quite possibly knew all along that he was leaving. Numerous people have mentioned that his facial expressions seemed off or disjointed at times. Now I found out that after Game 6 he didn't return a single call or text to Cleveland. Thats a terrible way to end a relationship that his (at least publicly) been so loving and supportive.

LeBron and the Cavs: How Good Are They?

I was reading an article about the Cavs today.  It was obviously designed to hype the Cavaliers and LeBron.  He is the media's darling du jour.  Speaking of which, that is a great term.  

Anyways, the article spoke about their focus and commitment to defense.  

Focus and commitment are great things.  They help one maximize one's potential.  Always a good thing.  

I also think long-term focus and commitment can improve a teams cohesiveness.  They can learn and practice more defensive schemes and perhaps  impove their offensive schemes. 

Basketball is also a game of one-on-one situations.  One-on-one defense and one-on-one offense.  In a seven game series what happens?  Well I think in a seven game series (if it is evenly matched) it comes down to role players contributing more.  

In the playoffs teams can scheme and practice consistently to stop one player or one method of attack.  In an 82 game season teams can get blindsided or be unfocused.  

So I think in an evenly matched seven games series bench and role players come up bigger.  For example, in the Houston/Portland series, Yao Ming beat the Blazers so badly (9-9 from the field) that they had to resort to double teaming him the rest of the series.  

The result now is that Luis Scola is shooting a lot of outside shots (and making them) because his defender is rotating off of him.  

But that fact is that Luis Scola is not even close to the best player in the series.  Its funny how a series can hinge (they've had three very close games) on the skills of someone who didn't even make the Spurs (he was cut by San Antonio).

And when I think of some of the San Antonio Spurs vs Phoenix Suns series' that I've seen, I keep thinking about Bruce Bowen.  He wasn't nearly the best player on his own team (maybe fourth best?) but it was his ability to add that extra bit of performance that brought them over the top.  He was always there when Duncan was covered, Tony Parker couldn't get in the lane, and Manu was immediately covered.  Waiting in the corner, patiently preparing to take his one shot.

Reflecting on this, it shows that the Suns could cover up to three really good players.  Three great players, all potential hall of fame players, and that was good enough.  If Bruce Bowen were worse than he was they wouldn't have won.  

So my point is who wins the one-on-one matchups at all five positions?

That was quite a tangent.  My reaction to reading the article on ESPN, found here, was that focus and commitment don't make you better.  They make you play harder, which gets you more wins, but it doesn't make you better.  

Does that make sense?

If I play harder, and really sprint around and play till I'm out of breath, I'll win more pickup basketball games.  But it doesn't mean I'm better.  I can't shoot more accurately, I can't jump higher, I don't have more basketball IQ.  

So the article brags about how good the Cavs are.  They have a superb record against bad teams.  They had an incredible record at home.  The quote they use is "they beat the teams they were supposed to beat".  

This is the same group of guys who won only forty five games last year.  FORTY FIVE games!  

And this year, against the Lakers, Celtics, and Magic (the other good teams in the league) they were three and six.  Three and six?  They aren't the best team in the league.  And one of those wins was against a Celtics team in disarray and without Garnett.  

Garnett won't be back this season.  But Orlando should really worry Cleveland.  And so should one other team.

Consider this thought experiment:  which of the following teams is better?  And by that I mean, when the chips are down and they had to play, who would win?  Who would win a playoff matchup?  

Team A has .750 winning percentage for the season.  They occasionally take nights off, losing to bad teams.  They have a winning record against the other division leaders in the league, and have won on the road at Team B's arena.

Team B has a .795 winning percentage.  They have the higher +/- differential.  They play tough, tenacious D, never take a game or opponent for granted.  They lost close games both at home and on the road to other division leaders.  There home record is great but their road record is mediocre for such a good team.  

I think it is Team A.  Team A looks like a good team that is slacking off.  Team B looks like a good team that is dialed in.  

Team B may be more fatigued for the playoffs.  Also, Team A will not be slacking off during a playoff meeting.  They'll be coming full-force.  However their defense sets may not be as good as needed.  

Wizards Cavs Part II

I read about how the Wizards were really flying around last night and really wanted a win.  The Cavs kept firing up three points and the Wizards kept driving to the rim to make contact.  The result:  the Wizards ekeing out a win.  The sports writer commented on how much more energetic the Wizards were compared to the Cavs.  This just shows that energy always trumps talent in the NBA.  At this level, whoever wants it more can still win the game if the other team is slacking off enough.  I suppose thats true at any level really.  

This definitely plays into the Effort Model.