Research Topic: Blowout wins

It would be interesting to look at the worst defeat each team suffered each season, and then compare the score and spread of the next time they played that same opponent which handed them that bad loss.

That would bump up a teams effort for the Effort Model.

Performance = Skill*Effort

Thoughts on Yao Ming's injury and the next game

This is so far shaping up to be a classic motivational game.  A star player is injured for the home team.  The team is down and struggling in the playoffs.  

The other team has a strong offense and mediocre defense.  

And everyone thinks that because the star is injured the series is over.  And it probably is.  

But the next game?  The home team has started ferociously and is winning by 16.  It hasn't been close the entire game.  

The First Game of a Series

Monitoring the second round of the NBA post-season has continued to get me thinking about the different forms that NBA play-off rounds take.  I think there are patterns that evolve and the preliminary results can tell you a lot about the different strengths of the teams involved and what is going to happen in the long term.

For instance, the Rockets game in and played physical and won game one.  In the second game the teams matched physicality and LA won.  What will happen in game three?  Well only time will tell, but history is a good place to start looking if you want to know the outcome.  Unfortunately, I'm completely ignorant of the history of the NBA.  

Like most everyone else.  A good sports bettor and analyst needs to be known as a historian of the game.  And not just knowing box scores and numbers and statistical data on "which teams win a series which percentage of the time depending on which game they won" but also keeping into context how  the game was won, if it was a blowout, etc.  

Another note is that I think Dwight Howard might be the next Shaq in one critical area: motivation.  While he lacks the physical tools and passing ability of Shaq in his prime, he does bring that lack of motivation and killer instinct that is typical of guys who have the physical greatness to show up and don't have to practice a thousand jumpers a day to stay in the league.  

While Ray Allen's game requires him to be a great shooter, constantly monitoring his form and percentages, Dwight Howard or Shaq don't have to focus with determination.  It makes them less tough, so to speak.  They don't have the mental toughness of an MJ, a Pipper, or even a Ray Allen.  Why?  Because when Dwight's game is off, he just has to get more physical and emotional.  But for Ray Allen, that won't help.  He has to get more focused, more calm, and more "in the zone".  There's a big difference with those things and how they play out with effort and championship level basketball.

Maybe thats why MJ won so much.  Because he was only 6'6".  And LeBron might not win as much because he is taller and has more physical gifts?  Interesting question.  Could height be a hindrance?

Thoughts on the data I collected on pointspreads

Well I've been mulling the data over in my head for a few days, looking for patterns and causes of said patterns.  The Cavaliers went 53-33 against the spread through the first round of the playoffs.  Detroit went only 40%, or 34-52.  Orlando went 51-35 over the season.  The Wizards went 35-51 for the season.  But the Celtics went 44-42, or .51 for the season.  

What can I conclude from this?  A theory of mine is developing for the NBA regular season.  Take a look at the 1) expectations for a team for the season and 2) their effort level.  

That seems to account for most of the variability in spread-covering percentages for each team.  

Essentially, if a team is expected to be very good and they are very good, and they try at the same level of effort as before, they will go roughly fifty percent.  

But if a team exceeds expectations, then when?  Well they are likely to cover more than their share of spreads.  If a team drops below expectations, they will do less.  

The Cavs tried really hard and got a high level of effort from each player.  Thus they covered more spreads.  Orlando also (seemingly) tried hard this season.  The Pistons?  They didn't try hard at all.  And they failed to cover the spreads because they had an established identity as a hard-working team. 

Interesting that these patterns for season-long betting emerge.  Other research points would include how long into the season do winning percentages and records solidify?  I mean how long into the season, if a team has a record of say, .400, will they finish the season with roughly that record?  Ten games?  Twenty?  Or forty?  

And once that record is roughly locked in, do the betting lines reflect the point spread from the start of the seasons's expectations?  Because what matters is how quickly and accurately the lines can reflect changes.

What I've read about NFL or NCAA football, and NBA basketball, indicates that once people know how good a team is they are very good at predicting point spreads and who will win.  So what matters is when their is a change in a teams skill level whoever can identify it fast enough, and accurately, stands to make the most money.  It doesn't matter if they get better or worse, what matters is accurately detecting change.  And being able to disregard statistical noise.  

Marcus Aurelius

The purpose of this blog is similar to the purpose of Meditations was for Marcus Aurelius.  

Marcus Aurelius was a Roman emperor from 161 to 180 of this era.  He wrote Meditations while on campaign as a source for his own guidance and self-improvement.  The purpose of this blog is my own guidance and improvement in the areas of sports analysis, prediction, investing, etc.   

As sports investing is a craft, anything can come into play.  I value the scientific method and want to create rules and observations based on real data.  I want my conclusions and predictions to be based on reality and be verifiable when possible.  I always want existing data to support my methods and conclusions.  

I read parts of Meditations in high school and have read further portions of it in college.  He preached stoicism, rationality and clear-mindedness.  

Lakers at SacTown

As I write this I this the Lakers are winning 86-72 at Sacramento.  They are only two point favorites on the road.  That seems a little silly to me.  Perhaps oddsmakers are thinking their motivation has wavered and they have lost focus.  

However, two nights ago the Lakers nearly lost to the Clippers after blowing a big lead.  The only thing better for tonight would have been if they'd lost to the Clippers.  Then they would have been very focused and vengeful.  

As it is they will still likely blowout the Kings.  The question is why was the spread so low?  

I think it was because of their near defeat to the Clippers.  But remember the lag factor.  By the time everyone has profiled the Lakers as losing focus, they have switched gears and become focused and wary.  By the time everyone thinks they are focused and playing hard, they will be slipping back into mediocre habits.  And so the pendulum swings, back and forth, back and forth.

The important lesson is that one needs to anticipate.  A close loss to a bad team will spur greater effort the next time a bad team is played.  A dominant win over a bad team will encourage less effort and focus the next time it is played.  There is the back and forth between expectations and effort.  Strong effort yields results and overkill which encourages less effort.  Rarely do players play hard for no reason.  A series of dominant wins will usually provoke less effort from the top team, steadily dropping until a bad loss wakes them up and spurs greater effort.  

Wizards Cavs Part II

I read about how the Wizards were really flying around last night and really wanted a win.  The Cavs kept firing up three points and the Wizards kept driving to the rim to make contact.  The result:  the Wizards ekeing out a win.  The sports writer commented on how much more energetic the Wizards were compared to the Cavs.  This just shows that energy always trumps talent in the NBA.  At this level, whoever wants it more can still win the game if the other team is slacking off enough.  I suppose thats true at any level really.  

This definitely plays into the Effort Model.  

New Concept: Effort Model

This new concept I just thought up I will name the effort model.  Basically it asserts that if you watch a typical sports game, the athletes are playing at 75% of their maximum effort.  Maximum effort is designated as what?  I haven't decided yet.  It could be game 7 or the NBA finals, but players are usually worn down by then.  It could be the singular game in which they give max effort and are also able to give max effort because they are young, fresh, don't have nagging injuries, etc.  Perhaps then there is also a moving value of how much max effort they can give out.  Effort being hustle, energy, phyiscality, etc.  We all know that physical play wears down opponents, but it also wears down the people playing that way.  Look at Kevin Garnett this season, he has played very hard and very physical and is now suffering from a knee ailment.  So this effort model concept is something I will be developing in the future.  

Ready to blog again

Wow.  I haven't blogged in nearly two weeks and haven't had a meaningful blog post in about three weeks.  Thats the longest stretch since I started the blog.  However, I'm done with Halo and so I should pick up the blogging pace like I did earlier.  I think one contributing factor was that I simply wasn't watching any sports, and its tough to blog when you don't ever watch sports.   

I'm still interested in the same things though and have stored up a few topics in my mind. First off, an article I read on Truehoop: 

EW YORK -- This is how Mike D'Antoni tells me the story the morning after Kobe Bryant came into the Garden and dropped a merciless 61 on his Knicks in early February, with a catalog of spin moves and fadeaways that had the sold-out crowd cheering the visiting Lakers:

D'Antoni passed Bryant near center court, walking onto the floor minutes before the house lights were dimmed for pregame introductions, and said, "Hey, Kobe, what's going on?"

This is a phrase D'Antoni uses the way your mom greets company at the door, asking folks to come in, sit down and talk a spell. It's a West Virginia welcome between friends.

D'Antoni was one of Bryant's idols when the kid was growing up in Italy and D'Antoni was starring in the Italian Professional League. Kobe wore D'Antoni's No. 8 as a young Laker. The two became brothers in arms while spending three years as part of Team USA, too. They won gold together.

"And he won't even look at me," D'Antoni says, raising both eyebrows.

No "Whassup, Mike?" no quick head bob, no raise of the eyebrows, nothing. Pursed lips. Boxer's shoulder wiggle. Steely, faraway stare.

D'Antoni laughs. Shakes his head a little. As if to say, I tell you what, that Kobe Bryant, he's pretty damn good.

"I knew right then we were f---ed."

thats an interesting story.  It shows how Kobe was motivated and picked up his game for the game in MSG.  I think that certain top-caliber players do pick and choose which games to ratchet up their focus and their energy.  As I've written about before, rarely do players give 100% effort.  They start out at around 75% effort and can go up or down depending on associated factors.