Monday, February 23, 2009

Random thoughts

I was thinking about the movie Two for the Money, a 2 hour film about sports betting and the crazy inhabitants that make up the commercial side of pick-selling.  And the climactic scene is where the main characters have bet all their money and their reputation on one game.  

And it hit me that if that ever happens, you're doing it wrong.  In fact, a successful bettor should never be nervous about the outcome of a game, viewing it instead as a single action of a string of many decisions that make up his portfolio.  

Also, the amount of money bet should never make one uncomfortable.  

The Celtics and Suns have also lost big men.  Should they be watched for upticks and downticks in energy levels?

I think the Celtics are a hard working team as it is.  However, when KG returns, there could be a "relaxation" amongst the players.  

The Suns simply aren't good enough to have high expectations.

A lot of these tricks or patterns can be most easily be measured against the backdrop of high expectations.  It isolates a variable and allows for easier pattern detection.  

Emotions.  Emotions are the lubricants of the brain. They drive decision making and frequently trump logical thought.  

So why are athletes so emotional?  Its because their performance and actions are the most extreme; and the most extreme results require the most extreme motivations.  So don't be surprised when athletes fight each other, blow up, and act completely erratically.  They are more emotional than 99% of the people out there.

They will be prone to higher highs and lower lows.  And a low for a professional athlete can be a very crappy performance and season.  It is these de-motivated athletes who provide the best opportunties.  

When two good teams try hard against each other, the outcome can be decided by the random bounce of the ball or a referee's judgement.  But when a good team plays an unmotivated team, a lot of stuff can happen poorly for the good team and they will still win.  They can overcome more mistakes.  

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