Random thoughts

I was thinking about the movie Two for the Money, a 2 hour film about sports betting and the crazy inhabitants that make up the commercial side of pick-selling.  And the climactic scene is where the main characters have bet all their money and their reputation on one game.  

And it hit me that if that ever happens, you're doing it wrong.  In fact, a successful bettor should never be nervous about the outcome of a game, viewing it instead as a single action of a string of many decisions that make up his portfolio.  

Also, the amount of money bet should never make one uncomfortable.  

The Celtics and Suns have also lost big men.  Should they be watched for upticks and downticks in energy levels?

I think the Celtics are a hard working team as it is.  However, when KG returns, there could be a "relaxation" amongst the players.  

The Suns simply aren't good enough to have high expectations.

A lot of these tricks or patterns can be most easily be measured against the backdrop of high expectations.  It isolates a variable and allows for easier pattern detection.  

Emotions.  Emotions are the lubricants of the brain. They drive decision making and frequently trump logical thought.  

So why are athletes so emotional?  Its because their performance and actions are the most extreme; and the most extreme results require the most extreme motivations.  So don't be surprised when athletes fight each other, blow up, and act completely erratically.  They are more emotional than 99% of the people out there.

They will be prone to higher highs and lower lows.  And a low for a professional athlete can be a very crappy performance and season.  It is these de-motivated athletes who provide the best opportunties.  

When two good teams try hard against each other, the outcome can be decided by the random bounce of the ball or a referee's judgement.  But when a good team plays an unmotivated team, a lot of stuff can happen poorly for the good team and they will still win.  They can overcome more mistakes.  

Patterns

I just had a very interesting conversation about patterns.  The human brain is a neural network; it excels at picking out patterns.  Musical patterns, visual patterns (think facial recognition), tactile sensations, and abstract numerical patterns.  

But could there be more patterns?  

The hammerhead shark has all the normal senses we do.  However, hammerheads have electroreceptory sensory pores called ampullae of Lorenzin (wikipedia).  ns.  Think about that.  Hammerheads can also detect electrical patterns through pores in their skin.  Through pores in the freaking skin!  

So if I had a conversation with a hammerhead (stay with me) and we discussed patterns, how could he explain an electrical pattern?  I'd have no idea about all these patterns because I didn't have the sensors to detect them.  

Its a common cognitive bias for us humans to think that if we can't see something or feel something, it doesn't exist.  But for a hammerhead, the world is filled with electrical patterns that we can't see or feel.  

There are doubtless patterns out there which we aren't equipped to detect or sense.  

Some patterns, emotional level patterns, psychological patterns, etc., don't readily show up.  

Anything relating to brain chemistry will be nearly invisible by all normal detection methods.  It isn't easy to detect and leaves no physical trace.  But coaches are good at detecting the emotional levels of their players and the best are going to be good at manipulating it.  

So a lot of these things like Laker Watch are simply trying to monitor and detect an emotional pattern in real life that is spread out over weeks.  That is a very difficult thing to track.  

Lakers Watch: Game 2

Tonight the Lakers played game two of Laker Watch at Minnesota.  They were favored to win by ten points and only won by three.  

Notably, they were losing at the end of the third quarter and it was close the whole way.

The question is:  how long will this continue?  

Also: when will this predictably happen?  What was the exact trigger?

I just happened to start Laker watch at game 1.  I saw that the two previous games they had failed to cover the spread.  So since the break they are 2-2 ATS but since I started watching, they are 0-2.  

still, I would suspect they will have trouble on this road trip and for a few more games fail to cover the spread, perhaps even losing a game or two. 

Kobe Bryant and a *statement* game at MSG

When Andrew Bynum went down with a torn MCL on January 31st, the Lakers were shocked and disappointed with the news.  Their emerging star center was hurt and it was a serious blow to their playoff hopes.  

The next game Kobe Bryant turned on the power and scored 61 points at New York, setting the single-game record at the modern Madison Square Garden.  They played hard and played well throughout the road trip.  

Now they are back home.  The question is this: when will the sense of urgency wear off?  Has their play been boosted by a temporary feeling of nervousness and a need to prove that they are an elite team even without Bynum?

An injury to a player or being short handed can often spur greater effort from everyone else; but that will wear off as fatigue sets in and players return to their normal level of effort and play, perhaps even dipping lower than normal.  

So as we go forward with the next week or two, can we expect an extra lakers loss or two?  Or at least see them not cover the spread?  

Are the NY Giants peaking too early?

The NY Giants have been in Super Bowl form for nine games now. And dating back to last season, its up to about 17 games. They're approaching the limit for a group of humans to perform at their peak. So as the season winds down we should see the Giants stumble down the stretch and then burn out during the playoffs. We've seen this before with the Colts, Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, etc. So thats a prediction for these playoffs.

That the Giants have peaked too early, and the reason I think so is that they've been strong for too long, and they are approaching a limit innate in humanity.

Thats a topic I want to expound upon. Not only cognitive biases, but the ability of humans to exert sustained physical effort superior to peers.