Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Predicting the Winner and the Loser

I just realized that is sports betting, one often tries to determine who will win.  In fact, for as long as I can remember, my Dad and I would always try to guess the winner of a game.

But that is the same as predicting the loser.  Except we never thought of it that way.  If one can figure out what makes teams lose, what makes them collapse, fall apart, and have struggles and internal tension, one can just as easily figure out the winners.  

Its a cognitive bias.  

I've always focused on the winner of game; what one has to do to win and then trying to figure out how to identifiy which team has more of those traits.  

But identifying teams that have collapsed, don't give a shit, aren't trying to win, etc., and doing it faster than everyone else, can lead to major gains and plays.  

1 comment:

Ben said...

Nice post, dude. I think the win/lose bias comes through the idea that most of us see winning as active and losing as passive. It's you "do" that makes you win, and what you "don't do" that makes you lose.

While this attitude can certainly be seen as a bias, I think that it may have some validity. Perhaps its just the bias creeping in again, but I (and probably most people) just can't shake the thought that winning isn't simply "not losing."

Guess that proves you point.

- Ben W.