Week #4 Recap and 49ers info

I was unable to watch the game but the aftermath is helpful. The 49ers cover the spread but lost the game on a last second play. Shaun Hill was 15-25 for 188 yards. He scored two touchdowns through the air and had a good game. So although I can't assume causality, I can definitely suppose that the factors I previously listed played a role in the 49ers performance.

Vis a vis college football, not much to report. I will do a prediction rundown.

Cal was blown out on the road, totally contrary to my pick. I believed the 'Hype" and Cal was blown out of the stadium. Terrible. That game led to my post earlier about the fallibility of pre-season rankings.

USC won 27-6, meaning this pick was a win! More importantly, it means that USC's offense is mediocre at best and the reason they will lose games. Their defense is very stout but they simply can't run up the score on opponents like they used to. Also, my analysis about them scoring somewhere in the fifties was flawed. They haven't played well offensively yet except against San Jose and have shown their offense is definitely lacking something this season.

And the Washington/Stanford pick was a success as well. Washington didn't perform well on the road against a team that they DIDN'T have the past offensive and defensive coordinators from. What a surprise!

This weeks record was 2-1-0

Total record of 4-5-0

Bringing the team to nearly .500!

Quick NFL Thoughts

The 49ers play at the Vikings today. And I was told that Shaun Hill, the San Francisco QB, was the back up at Minnesota for three or four years. That means he will be very, very familiar with the stadium and surroundings, plus a number of the players who are still with the team. Of course, the coaching staff will be somewhat familiar with him, as well as members of the D, but I think overall the balance favors the QB over the defense. Plus, there has been a coaching change in Minnesota since he left.

And I think the 49ers are truly better than they have been, in terms of physicality and desire to win. They've already beaten last years NFC Champion and the Seahawks. So I think the spread of 7 points is too high.

Lastly, Favre has only been on the team two weeks, and didn't even spend all of training camp with the team. He simply can't know everything about the team that well.

So an official prediction is the 49ers will cover the spread.

Thoughts on the weekend

First thought is that we decided to make no picks regarding the Pac-10 challenge.

So our record stands at 2-4-0. Essentially, worse that .500

Other thoughts regard the big Pac-10 news, the upset of USC at Washington. All one needs to know is that they were starting a substitute QB and Washington's coach was USC's offensive coordinator. What was it I told myself about this stuff last season? That coaches tend to do above average against their old teams. They know the team, the staff, the playbook, the signals, the audibles, etc. So it shouldn't be a surprise that this happened.

The second is regarding the Jets-Patriots game this weekend. That PATS were three point favorites. In the game preview, I read that a defensive player said that this game was their "superbowl". They had lost seven straight at home to New England. They had a new coach, and had failed to make the playoffs last year.

A true regular season "superbowl game" can't be had by a team with legitimate superbowl aspirations. If they made the playoffs the previous season, or are looking like they will make them this year, then its tough to have a regular season "Super bowl" game.

Anyways, "Superbowl" games, as labeled by the players, usually mean a big performance by the underdog. And of course, it happened again this time. Nice work by the Jets.

Lastly, earlier posts by me predicted that Mike Singletary would lead the 49ers to new heights (relatively). I wrote that his physical style of play would increase the level of play of the 49ers and bump them up to the 6 to 12 win range. It won't get them higher than that, and even 12 is a stretch. What is most likely is 10 wins as the ceiling. The team will struggle against teams with sophisticated attacks and physical defenses. But they will defeat less physical teams and teams with simple schemes.

The Genius: How Bill Walsh Reinvented Football and Created an NFL Dynasty Chapters 11-20

Chapter 11 describes the 49ers as they started the season in which they would win the season.  

"What matters most is what you expect from yourself.  The players who do the best are those who expect the most.  The Forty Niners didn't play down or up tot he level of their opposition.  They played to meet their own standards and they expected nothing less from all of their teammates" (89).  This quote is a great quote and is most helpful when viewed side-by-side with its antithesis, a back-handed compliment given out to players who can "play up to the level of their competition".  

So when you hear of a player who plays better when he's playing good opponents, if he plays better when matching Kobe Bryant than Scruff McGruff, it should be viewed as a negative.  He's a slacker, not a competitor.  What it means is that player is more suspectible to losing games to average or below average teams because he won't be playing seriously or trying hard.  

Conversely, if one sees a team repeatedly blow out weaker opponents, like the Patriots during the 2007-2008 season or the Celtics in their 2007-2008 season (beating the Knicks by 40 points) one knows that team is a serious contender for playoff performance.  They set their own standards and will be a good pick to cover the spread and also will suprise with a few blowouts of teams that "play up to their opponents". 

A team that doesn't have a problem losing will get beat badly by teams that strive for excellence.  

Bill Walsh also expected precision from his coaches.  He chewed out a coach for saying "nice play" because it wasn't specific enough.  The coach had to complement the player for the specific actions taken.  

"Everyone has a role and every role is essential.  He was still convinced that championships are won with the bottom half of the roster" (89).  I also saw this in a book about the Patriots I read, where Bill Bellichick felt that same players on other teams (the bottom third) couldn't even make the practice squad of the Patriots.  

"You have to be ready to attack the problem and find a way to communicate about it without it being difficult.  We openly talk when tihngs go poorly and initiate a process to reverse adn change the miscalculation.  The Forty Niners are always talking to each other and always listening".  (91).  

Another gem:  "He was convinced that his team would never get better until it knew who it was, and that providing such an identity was the head coach's central function" (92).  

Bill Walsh also placed a premium on character, inspiration, and motivation.  This is a common theme, the idea of a locker room's identity and the people that enforce it.  "Walsh's projection of Young's impact would prove on teh mark, particularly on that last count.  An ordained Baptist preacher, Charle brought character in abundance, leading the team in pregame prayers and offering inspirational sermons to anyone in his vicinity" (107).  

I think this factor is more valuable in football than basketball.  

Bill also emphasized footwork and technique.  "He insisted he could always tell the outcome of the play just by watching the quarterback's feet".    Thats a very interesting point.  The faster the QB throws the ball, the more his play call are open on the first read.  The more the offense is winning the battle against the defensive play-caller.  Thats a very important thing to keep in mind when watching a game (110).  

Another common theme is Bill Walsh spending each off-season trying to bring in more talent.  

"this concentration on defense (in the draft) also reflected Bill's theory that his sy stem of offense could cover for talent shortages but not so with defense, where talent was essential and could not be compensated for" (126).  

Jack "Hacksaw" Reynolds was legendary for his intensity and work ethic and study of the game. 

He really set the example in terms of work ethic and intensity and a lot of young players keyed in on that.  

Joe Montana after the strike of the 81-82 season: "there were grudges and we weren't playing as a team.  We weren't working together and people weren't talking to teach other.  How can you win under those conditions?  A lot of players heads weren't into the game" (175).

After the season was over, "Walsh identified three things that led to their collapse.  1) Complacency  2)  Distractions  3) Drugs".

Drugs aren't a factor in the NFL (as far as I know).  Complaceny occured because "Its just human nature, especially for a team that hasn't been winning before and didn't yet have a legacy or tradition.  Suddenly you're invited to every golf tournament in the off-season.  Its hard to rekindle the same kind of hunger" (176).  

Complacency:  "We had too many guys writing books, or on speaking engagements, or otherwise enjoying the fruits of the Super Bowl.  We just got so distracted our edge disappeared".  

So lastly, signs of teams losing focus would be coaches writing books, players writing books.  Those are the most visible.  

The Genius: How Bill Walsh Reinvented Football and Created an NFL Dynasty. Chapters 1-10.

I'm 142 pages into The Genius, a book about Bill Walsh and his coaching legacy.  As a quick recap of his time with the 49ers, he coached from 1979-1988, winning the Super Bowl in 1981, 1984, and his final season 1988.  

A very impressive record.  Thats as many as Bill Belichick, the most successful coach of the current era.  Its a very fun read and exciting for me because I don't know very much about the Forty Niners history.  I remember watching games but very little about what was actually happening.  

The owner of the 49ers at the time was Eddie DeBartolo, who gave Bill Walsh free rein to both coach and be the GM.  This was unprecedented at the time.  The 49ers were performing horribly and had little to no success in any aspect of the game.  Bill Walsh won the Super Bowl in three years after taking over a team that was 2-14.  

The big question is how.  How did he do this?  What did he do differently?  The first trend I've picked up on is his willingness to trust his own judgement.  The corrolary is that his judgement is correct; it does you no good to trust your judgement if you are wrong.  But he also picked up on several inefficencies in the NFL at that time.  He anticipated the success of the "West-Coast Offense" whereby the offense throws lots of short, quick passes underneath the defense and generates significant yards after the catch.  

He was also an excellent judge of talent and was willing to continually cycle through talent to find good players.  

I was not surprised when I found this quote:  "We created an atmosphere in meetings in which a scout or coach was able to express himself completely.  If he overstated or understated in any category, he could change his opinion without being criticized.  We were interested only in results.  They could change their mind without being ridiculed.  Everyone was expected to participate."  This is a common trend among winners.  The simple fact is that one person simply can't be right all the time or know all the important information.  The problem occurs when people don't resolve conflicting views or share information.  Communication is key.

They also stressed positive reinforcement and communication from coaches to players about proper technique.  Bill Walsh stressed technique and would get upset at the assistants during practice if the players weren't displaying proper technique.  That creates a dynamic where the players want to do well because they don't want their assistant coach to be berated by the head coach.

This covers the first ten chapters of the book.  I will cover more later.  Enjoy!

The Mike Singletary Era: Part II

Mike Singletary, the new coach of the 49ers, has been preaching effort. He wants his team to trust their teammates, play as hard as they can, and be ferocious.

And it has paid off. Since he took over, the 49ers are 3-3. Their record prior to his taking over was 2-5. And more importantly, two of their losses have been very close games, with San Francisco hanging in there until the last minute.

Another indicator of the effect of effort can be seen in San Francisco's performance relative to the spread. The spread, or betting line, is an indication of (essentially) a consensus on whether San Francisco will win or lose, and by how many points.

Prior to Singletary's takeover, which I'd call the "poor effort" era, a team demoralized by losing and a quarterback controversy, was 2-5 against the spread. There were high expectations for the team the year before, and this year they stumbled through the season.

After Singletary's takeover, the personnel remained the same, except for a quarterback switch. The difference was how much effort he was getting from his players. He is big, black, a former linebacker ( I think) who looks tough, talks tough, and was known for his intensity while he was in the league.

The team is now 5-2 against the spread.

5-2 is quite a good winning percentage. 71% to be exact. The 49ers are having a period of sustained superior effort. They are playing hard, getting results, and believing again. They also have a staff and coach that knows there is a lot of money and prestige to be made by signing a contract extension at the end of the season. So everyone is putting in a ton of effort to make sure everyone plays their heart out.

So among the factors contributing to this new effort are a new coach known for his intensity and the uncertainty of cuts or extensions at the end of the season.

The two questions are: can this uptake be anticipated? A coach with credibility both in the league at large and with the 49ers in general, and a team perhaps underperforming?

The second is: how long will this sustained superior effort last? What are the limits on a human's ability to have sustained superior effort? There are two games left in the regular season. Can San Francisco keep it up? Especially now that their next opponent is a repeat opponent they already played and beat upon during the new era? I would think they would have trouble getting up for the Rams like last time. But Singletary is a great motivator.

Interesting questions to ponder.

The Mike Singletary Era

The Mike Singletary era is upon us for 49er fans.  He preaches physicality, effort, motivation, physicality, and physicality.  The best example of this can be seen in their drive at the end of the first half, when the  49ers faced 3rd and 12 in their own territory.  They called a designed run for the quarterback.  J.T. Hill was hit a few yards short, had his helmet ripped off, and then dove for the first down.  Later in the drive he connected with Vernon Davis (#85) for a touchdown.  San Francisco led 21-13 at the half.  

They ended up losing to the better team (the cardinals) but the statement was made.  And Singletary's philosophy is one of physicality, which resonates in the NFL.  There are enough athletes all around to supply every team.  There are so many college athletes, semi-pros, practice team players, NFL Europe, etc., that the difference between players is small.  

So what makes the difference?  Motivation and effort.  Which manifests itself mostly through physical play and practice preparation/weight room time.  

But mostly through inspired physical play.  Its also in San Francisco's favor that his message is hitting the troops half way through the season, renewing his emphasis at a time when other teams are lagging as they get burned out.  Like the Browns, who allegedly quit on their own team during the loss to the Broncos.  

There was also the question of poor time management at the end of the game.  Well, you win some you lose some.  Only the most elite coaches can do everything.