Quick NFL Thoughts

The 49ers play at the Vikings today. And I was told that Shaun Hill, the San Francisco QB, was the back up at Minnesota for three or four years. That means he will be very, very familiar with the stadium and surroundings, plus a number of the players who are still with the team. Of course, the coaching staff will be somewhat familiar with him, as well as members of the D, but I think overall the balance favors the QB over the defense. Plus, there has been a coaching change in Minnesota since he left.

And I think the 49ers are truly better than they have been, in terms of physicality and desire to win. They've already beaten last years NFC Champion and the Seahawks. So I think the spread of 7 points is too high.

Lastly, Favre has only been on the team two weeks, and didn't even spend all of training camp with the team. He simply can't know everything about the team that well.

So an official prediction is the 49ers will cover the spread.

Thoughts on the weekend

First thought is that we decided to make no picks regarding the Pac-10 challenge.

So our record stands at 2-4-0. Essentially, worse that .500

Other thoughts regard the big Pac-10 news, the upset of USC at Washington. All one needs to know is that they were starting a substitute QB and Washington's coach was USC's offensive coordinator. What was it I told myself about this stuff last season? That coaches tend to do above average against their old teams. They know the team, the staff, the playbook, the signals, the audibles, etc. So it shouldn't be a surprise that this happened.

The second is regarding the Jets-Patriots game this weekend. That PATS were three point favorites. In the game preview, I read that a defensive player said that this game was their "superbowl". They had lost seven straight at home to New England. They had a new coach, and had failed to make the playoffs last year.

A true regular season "superbowl game" can't be had by a team with legitimate superbowl aspirations. If they made the playoffs the previous season, or are looking like they will make them this year, then its tough to have a regular season "Super bowl" game.

Anyways, "Superbowl" games, as labeled by the players, usually mean a big performance by the underdog. And of course, it happened again this time. Nice work by the Jets.

Lastly, earlier posts by me predicted that Mike Singletary would lead the 49ers to new heights (relatively). I wrote that his physical style of play would increase the level of play of the 49ers and bump them up to the 6 to 12 win range. It won't get them higher than that, and even 12 is a stretch. What is most likely is 10 wins as the ceiling. The team will struggle against teams with sophisticated attacks and physical defenses. But they will defeat less physical teams and teams with simple schemes.

The Mike Singletary Era: Part II

Mike Singletary, the new coach of the 49ers, has been preaching effort. He wants his team to trust their teammates, play as hard as they can, and be ferocious.

And it has paid off. Since he took over, the 49ers are 3-3. Their record prior to his taking over was 2-5. And more importantly, two of their losses have been very close games, with San Francisco hanging in there until the last minute.

Another indicator of the effect of effort can be seen in San Francisco's performance relative to the spread. The spread, or betting line, is an indication of (essentially) a consensus on whether San Francisco will win or lose, and by how many points.

Prior to Singletary's takeover, which I'd call the "poor effort" era, a team demoralized by losing and a quarterback controversy, was 2-5 against the spread. There were high expectations for the team the year before, and this year they stumbled through the season.

After Singletary's takeover, the personnel remained the same, except for a quarterback switch. The difference was how much effort he was getting from his players. He is big, black, a former linebacker ( I think) who looks tough, talks tough, and was known for his intensity while he was in the league.

The team is now 5-2 against the spread.

5-2 is quite a good winning percentage. 71% to be exact. The 49ers are having a period of sustained superior effort. They are playing hard, getting results, and believing again. They also have a staff and coach that knows there is a lot of money and prestige to be made by signing a contract extension at the end of the season. So everyone is putting in a ton of effort to make sure everyone plays their heart out.

So among the factors contributing to this new effort are a new coach known for his intensity and the uncertainty of cuts or extensions at the end of the season.

The two questions are: can this uptake be anticipated? A coach with credibility both in the league at large and with the 49ers in general, and a team perhaps underperforming?

The second is: how long will this sustained superior effort last? What are the limits on a human's ability to have sustained superior effort? There are two games left in the regular season. Can San Francisco keep it up? Especially now that their next opponent is a repeat opponent they already played and beat upon during the new era? I would think they would have trouble getting up for the Rams like last time. But Singletary is a great motivator.

Interesting questions to ponder.

The Mike Singletary Era

The Mike Singletary era is upon us for 49er fans.  He preaches physicality, effort, motivation, physicality, and physicality.  The best example of this can be seen in their drive at the end of the first half, when the  49ers faced 3rd and 12 in their own territory.  They called a designed run for the quarterback.  J.T. Hill was hit a few yards short, had his helmet ripped off, and then dove for the first down.  Later in the drive he connected with Vernon Davis (#85) for a touchdown.  San Francisco led 21-13 at the half.  

They ended up losing to the better team (the cardinals) but the statement was made.  And Singletary's philosophy is one of physicality, which resonates in the NFL.  There are enough athletes all around to supply every team.  There are so many college athletes, semi-pros, practice team players, NFL Europe, etc., that the difference between players is small.  

So what makes the difference?  Motivation and effort.  Which manifests itself mostly through physical play and practice preparation/weight room time.  

But mostly through inspired physical play.  Its also in San Francisco's favor that his message is hitting the troops half way through the season, renewing his emphasis at a time when other teams are lagging as they get burned out.  Like the Browns, who allegedly quit on their own team during the loss to the Broncos.  

There was also the question of poor time management at the end of the game.  Well, you win some you lose some.  Only the most elite coaches can do everything.