NBA Finals 2010

The NBA Finals were an amazing series. I am a Laker fan so I'm obviously happy about the way it turned out; however I have a few thoughts on some other angles to the series that I want to write down before I forget them.

Doc Rivers was disparaged as a coach who couldn't get a system in place or get productivity out of the Celtics before the current "Big 3" was assembled in the summer of 2007. Now he is seen as more of a veteran's coach who gets peak performance out of a unit where egos could easily dominate and cause diversity.

I'm going to say he's largely the same person he was before and after the 2008 season. So what gives? Well, contrast that to Avery Johnson, who is a control oriented coach with seemingly perfect technical knowledge and attention to detail. He also oversaw two of the biggest choke jobs in NBA history, squandering a 2-0 lead in the NBA Finals to a Miami Heat team that only won 52 games that year (compared to Dallas' sixty games). The following year, his 67 win team (67!!!) lost to the Golden State Warriors who squeaked into the playoffs on the final day of the regular season, before promptly losing 4-1 to Utah, who lost 4-1 to the Spurs, who finally won the championship.

Meanwhile, Doc Rivers lead a team with a solid starting five to upset victories over the league leading Cavaliers (61 wins) and then the Magic (59 wins) and nearly beat the Lakers, narrowly losing a game 7 in which the lead by 13 points in the third quarter.

Whats the difference? How can one coach who is able to pound and mold a team into a well-oiled regular season machine able to choke in the playoffs while coach Doc Rivers stumbles through home losses to the Nets and Wizards only to pull a five headed rabbit out of the proverbial hat once the playoffs start?

I don't know. I doubt anyone does. But consider a quote from Doc Rivers who said, and I quote "I'm a typical guy. I can point out the problem but I don't have a solution". It takes a big man to say that. Avery Johnson would never say that. Ever.

Ever.

Game 2 Thoughts and Game 3 preview

Game 2 of the NBA Finals featured Ray Allen setting the 3 point shot record in the NBA Finals, with seven consecutive and 8 total three-pointers made. Despite his record performance, the Celtics trailed by 3 with five minutes remaining at a score of 90-87. The Celtics squeaked out a victory with the help of Rajon Rondo's triple double and amazing offensive rebounds.

Lamar Odom played 15 minutes due to over aggressive play; he's probably so amped up after sitting on the bench that he plays with too much energy at the start and ends up collecting fouls. His desire to contribute and play is actually hurting his performance.

Ron Artest had a 1-10 shooting night but is still doing amazing work on Paul Pierce defensively. They are simply letting Ron Artest guard his straight up on the perimeter knowing that Bynum and Gasol are simply camping in the paint waiting for a drive.

Which reminds me: Kendrick Perkins and Bynum are basically having a war in the paint and its working out in the favor of the Lakers as the Lakers perimeter defenders can be up in everyone's jersey, knowing that dribble penetration will be met by a rejuvenated Bynum and the ever-active Gasol.

Kevin Garnett looks so fragile I think I could guard him one on one. He knows that Gasol is taller, stronger, heavier, quicker, and younger. Advantage: Lakers.

If Ray Allen didn't have the GREATEST NIGHT IN FINALS HISTORY the game wouldn't have even been close. If he had shot his season average 40 percent and made four instead of eight, those missing points would have meant they were down 15 with five minutes to go instead of 3. An insurmountable lead.

Nate Robinson comes in cold off the bench and hits a fall away 3 pointer? I'm comfortable letting a castoff from one of the leagues worst teams shooting as many fall away 3-pointers as he wants.

Ray Allen was making catch and shoot 3s all night. Thats an amazing feat and he's legitimately the best shooter in the NBA right now. But thats all he's making. He isn't creating off the dribble or beating them one on one like Kobe can. So how about Shannon Brown quits leaving him to help in the lane and Derek Fisher fights through some screens? I mean get serious here. The Lakers will win Game 3 and they will win the series in 6.

Kevin Garnett dominated Rashard Lewis in the Orlando series? Rashard Lewis, a 6'10" power forward who needed to take HGH to average 5 rebounds a game? Really? Now that he's been suspended and off the juice for a year Kevin Garnett is boasting of his performance over him? Gasol is taller, heavier, stronger, and mentally tougher and most importantly, has faced the KG blitz before. He failed in 2008. He won't again.

The Lakers and Celtics are in the Finals

To prepare for the Finals, which start tomorrow, I'm going to do a player by player comparison to determine which team has the advantage in the series.

Home Court: advantage goes to the Lakers. However, both are veteran teams, and both played well on the road. So I'd have to say that I doubt home court advantage will be a big factor in this series.

Point Guard: Rajon Rondo vs. Derek Fisher. Rajon has had some monster games this season and also led his teams in WP. Derek Fisher is 35 and not much of a dribble penetration kind of guy. The Celtics have a huge advantage in Rondo v Fisher.

Shooting Guard: Kobe Bryant vs. Ray Allen. Obviously, Kobe is Kobe, skilled at everything, and performing really well now that his knee is in better shape. The Celtics have Ray Allen, who is adept at moving without the ball, rolling around multiple screens, and hitting open shots. The problem for the Lakers is that it forces Kobe to spend energy on defense chasing Ray Allen. The problem for the C's is that Ray Allen will probably have to guard Kobe, which is very tough to do.

Small Forward: Paul Pierce versus Ron Artest. PP is a very good player, especially on offense. Ron Artest is a good player, especially on defense. Its a situation of one players strengths going against anothers strengths, which is rare. Most players make it to the NBA based on offense. Ron Artest was brought to the Lakers for defense. Also, Ron Artest has been hitting corners threes very well lately and playing under control. So while the Cs have the advantage when it comes to their best player, its not as much of one as I'd suspect. Ron Artest is happy to play like a pitbull all game against Ron Artest and nothing else.

Power Forward: Keven Garnett versus Pau Gasol. Advantage Lakers. With all due respect to KG and what he's done over the years, Pau is better. Hes much better on offense. However, same situation as the last position. Pau is great on offense, KG is great on defense. Tireless, relentess defense. Also, KG has always been a good outside shooter and has an array of post moves. Over the course of a season, Pau is better. A seven game series? Not as sure. Advantage Lakers, but not a big one.

Center: Two guys who are there for their defense, defending each other. Great. I expect 2.45 ppg for each player! Ha, we'll see. Between Kendrick Perkins technical foul trouble and Bynums knee problems, I expect both players to miss significant playing time this series. Advantage: No one.

6th Man: Lamar Odom vs. Glen Davis/Rasheed Wallace. Neither Cs sub has the combination of mobility and strength to match Lamar. He is also rebounding very well (see his 19 rebound performance against the Suns). Davis and Wallace both have their strengths, also Wallace has had back problems and is as likely to throw up a clunker of a game as he is a good game. Wallace does seem dialed in and focused, however. Advantage Lakers.

Bench: Both benches are erratic. The Lakers PGs may be able to help with Rajon Rondo ( Shannon Brown and Farmar) but beyond that, its a toss up as to which team's bench will have a good game and which one won't. Whoever blinks first losses the championship.

Coaches: Both veterans, both experienced. Doc Rivers had a reputation for being overmatched and incompetent before the Big 3 arrived, and he is now hailed as an amazing coach. Probably somewhere in between. Jackson's main coaching strategy has been to have Jordan, Pippen, Rodman, Shaq, Kobe, and now Gasol, as his players. I thought Stan Van Gundy did a better coaching job last year in the Finals.

Prediction? I don't know.

Shaq's injury may have helped the Cavs

I think that Shaq's thumb injury and subsequent surgery, which required him to miss the last two months of the season, was good for him and the Cavs. First off, it allowed Z to get a lot of minutes after his one month lay-off and get back into the Cavs system (although I'm sure he had it down pat after pairing with LeBron and Coach Brown for the last six seasons.

Secondly, it simply gave Shaq time to rest his body and get ready for the post season. Since it was just a thumb injury, he could still run and condition himself for games and he apparently spent this time losing twenty pounds. Awesome for him and the Cavs. This reminds me of when he missed the first twenty games of the season the year the Heat won the Championship. Then it was a badly sprained ankle but the fact remains it is a good thing for him to miss time as he was fresher for the playoffs.

Bleacher Report Part 2....

I'm going to make my second attempt at writing on Bleacher Report. The articles will focus on my NBA Effort Model, statistical examples of it, and creating dialogue about it. Using the community I can hopefully vet my ideas. I might also mention the Martingale Idea, and try to test losing streaks for significance.

Research Topic: Blowout wins

It would be interesting to look at the worst defeat each team suffered each season, and then compare the score and spread of the next time they played that same opponent which handed them that bad loss.

That would bump up a teams effort for the Effort Model.

Performance = Skill*Effort

Payback in the NBA

Two recent upsets occurred in the NBA.

The first was the Knicks beating of the Mavs by a score of 128-94. This most unlikely of scores was apparently due to the Knicks wanting "payback" for the 50 point home loss they endured at the hands of the Mavericks on January 24th.

Some quotes from the game: "We felt they'd take us lightly," said Douglas, making his first start since Nov. 18. "A lot of teams look at the schedule and say, 'Oh, that's the Knicks. That's a win.' But we've got to come out and compete every night.

"Revenge is sweet sometimes. That's a really good team over there but we caught them at the right time. They were ripe for the picking," said New York reserve Al Harrington, who had 20 points. "When you're rolling along and the Knicks are coming in, you figure you can score 150 points on 'em in your sleep. But that Knick team didn't show up today. We caught 'em by surprise."

"They remembered [the blowout in New York]," said Dallas' Shawn Marion, who scored 14 points. "They even said something to me about it before the game. They said they were going to give us a spanking."

This appeared to be an easy win for the Mavericks, but the Knicks came out focused and perhaps fearful of what would happen if they didn't.

The second game also involves the Mavericks, this time against Boston.

For this game, Rasheed Wallace vowed payback for the twenty point home loss they suffered. And they were focused and barely won.

These two games support my "energy and skill" theory, that any team on any night plays at a certain level defined by their energy and innate skill. Basically, a teams innate skill at 100% focus and energy, multiplied by whatever percentage of energy a team is playing at for the night. Lets say an average game is played at 75% energy, playoffs close to 95%, etc.

NBA Leader Martingale System 4

The Lakers snapped their three game losing streak with a home win over Toronto, helped by a last second shot by Kobe Bryant. So the small sample of watching the Laker's losing streak while I blogged about losing streaks ended with a win. Infact, every losing streak ends with a win. The next two steps are to 1) create a summary of the final two seasons in NBA archives on ESPN's homepage and 2) start an excel sheet of pointspreads and moneylines to figure out an equation to go from point spread to moneylines. The reason for this is that while pointspread data for the last several seasons is readily available, moneyline data (to the best of my knowledge) is not. So I'll need to analyze that and come up with a model.

Then I can simulate (using excel) the bets I would have made the last couple of seasons on the NBA leaders and see how my bankroll would have done.

And that should be very interesting indeed.

NBA Leader Martingale System 3

Quite coincidentally, the Lakers (with the best record in the West) have now lost three games in a row and play at home against Toronto tonight. If I were using my system, then this would be a must-win game for the Lakers because I would have lost three in a row, doubling my bet each time. I'd be running out of funds!

So it'll be interesting to see the results of this game.

NBA Leader Martingale System

I just looked at the Vegas.com website and found no evidence of moneyline bets on the NBA. That freaked me out! So I went online and googled NBA point spread moneyline bets and was about to find a few websites that allowed it. As always, I'd much rather bet with a casino than a website. Interesting thing to look for the next time I'm in Vegas though.