NBA Leader Martingale System 4

The Lakers snapped their three game losing streak with a home win over Toronto, helped by a last second shot by Kobe Bryant. So the small sample of watching the Laker's losing streak while I blogged about losing streaks ended with a win. Infact, every losing streak ends with a win. The next two steps are to 1) create a summary of the final two seasons in NBA archives on ESPN's homepage and 2) start an excel sheet of pointspreads and moneylines to figure out an equation to go from point spread to moneylines. The reason for this is that while pointspread data for the last several seasons is readily available, moneyline data (to the best of my knowledge) is not. So I'll need to analyze that and come up with a model.

Then I can simulate (using excel) the bets I would have made the last couple of seasons on the NBA leaders and see how my bankroll would have done.

And that should be very interesting indeed.

NBA Leader Martingale System 3

Quite coincidentally, the Lakers (with the best record in the West) have now lost three games in a row and play at home against Toronto tonight. If I were using my system, then this would be a must-win game for the Lakers because I would have lost three in a row, doubling my bet each time. I'd be running out of funds!

So it'll be interesting to see the results of this game.

NBA Leader Martingale System

I just looked at the Vegas.com website and found no evidence of moneyline bets on the NBA. That freaked me out! So I went online and googled NBA point spread moneyline bets and was about to find a few websites that allowed it. As always, I'd much rather bet with a casino than a website. Interesting thing to look for the next time I'm in Vegas though.

NBA Leader Martingale System 2

I've already compiled statistics for the NBA seasons of 2008-2009 and 2007-2008. To recap, I'm looking at the statistics of the top four teams in the league (by record) and recording their total wins, record after twenty games, point differential, and their two longest losing streaks. All statistics taken from the ESPN archives.

2006-2007

Dallas, 67-15, +7.2, 4 games, 2 games, 14-6.

Phoenix, 61-21, +7.3, 4 games, 3 games, 14-6.

San Antonio, 58-24, +8.4, 3 games, 2 games, 15-5.

Detroit, 53-29, +4.2, 3 games, 2 games, 13-7.

2005-2006

Detroit, 64-18, +6.7, 2 games, 2 games, 17-3.

San Antonio, 63-19, +6.8, 2 games, 2 games, 16-4.

Dallas, 60-22, +6.1, 3 games, 2 games, 15-5.

Phoenix, 54-28, +5.5, 3 games, 2 games, 13-7.

2004-2005

Phoenix, 62-20, +7.1, 6 games, 2 games, 17-3.

San Antonio, 59-23, +7.8, 3 games, 2 games, 16-4.

Miami, 59-23, +6.5, 4 games, 2 games, 13-7.

Dallas, 58-24, +5.7, 3 games, 3 games, 13-7.

After this season, there are two left on ESPN's archives and I will probably stop there. The 2003-2004 and 2002-2003 seasons are remaining.

NBA Leader Martingale System 1

To start the research for the NBALMS, I will research the top 4 teams (by record), measure total wins, point differential, and duration of their two longest losing streaks, and record after 20 games (or 25% of the season).

2008-2009

Cleveland, 66-16, +8.9, 2 games, 2 games, 17-3.

Lakers, 65-17, +7.7, 2 games, 2 games, 17-3.

Boston, 62-20, +7.5, 4 games, 2 games, 18-2.

Orlando, 59-23, +6.7, 3 games, 2 games, 15-5.

2007-2008

Boston, 66-16, +10.3, 3 games, 2 games, 18-2.

Detroit, 59-23, +7.4, 3 games, 2 games, 14-6.

Lakers, 57-25, +7.3, 3 games, 3 games, 12-8.

New Orleans, 56-26, +5.3, 3 games, 3 games, 13-7.

San Antonio, 56-26, +4.8, 4 games, 3 games, 17-3.

I will go back as far as I can using ESPN's data, but so far, it looks like the longest losing streaks have been 4 games and three games.