Thursday, August 6, 2009

Preseason #1 in College Football

Tomorrow the preseason polls come out. And with that we have the first cause of cognitive biases and perception biases. As the season approaches, writers will write articles supporting the top teams and talking them up and poo-pooing the lower ranked teams. And so the cycle of a small decision by a coach to pick one team over another in a meaningless poll will feed expectations and support poorly formed opinions which will snowball over the coming weeks until the top teams have become once-a-decade goliaths set on a collision course.

If those teams make it six weeks it will turn into a once-a-century battle royale the likes of which we haven't seen since, well, a few years ago.

And a quick prediction I have relates to what I read about OU. Sam Bradford came back after winning a Heisman trophy last year. However, he has lost four starting offensive lineman. And that will hurt him significantly. I simply don't believe that the line will be as good and that will lead to a worse offensive performance on his part and a greater possibility of injury.

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