I haven't been studying economics or heuristics. I haven't been doing much of anything these last few months. Besides blogging and writing the occasional B/R article, I've been playing Halo and golfing.
Why did I begin this blog? To categorize things; to remember things; to do some writing. And I want to continue but there simply isn't that much to write about.
When I think about making a prediction, I typically think about doing the opposite of what my gut tells me. That seems like it is more likely to be right. When I'm right it feels good but when I'm wrong it seems like more details emerge. We know everything relevant about a team; in a football game or a seven game basketball series we already know all the stats, the information, everyone is a known quantity.
So why is it so tough to determine the outcome? And more importantly, to be right when everyone else is wrong. To go against the crowd. That is where the money lies. Where the value is. Is it valuable to be a contrarian? To expose onself to black swans? Black swans that can benefit rather than harm?
Something that is 10,000 to 1 odds is inaccurately listed. We get sloppy. Our minds shrink in the face of large numbers. Is the underdog not so much of an underdog?
I don't know the answers to these questions. I don't know if I ever will. So much is unknown, cloudy.