Friday, December 18, 2009

NBA Notes

I was reading about Andrew Bynums rebounding woes, and how they have coincided with Pau Gasol's extraordinary rebounding performance. And people have been studying film, trying to figure out why Bynum can't be more like Pau Gasol.

And it seems clear to me that the two are related. With two seven footers on the team, if one is getting 22 rebounds in a game, the other simply can't be getting that many. Of the rebounds that fall near the rim and in the key (the ones a big man will collect), there can't be more than 30 or so a game per team.

A typical game has about 50 missed shots. Most fall within the key (where big men on both teams fight for the rebounds) and 15 or so rebound long and the guards and small forwards fight over them.

So if Gasol is hogging all the rebounds (and getting all the accolades) Bynum can't be blamed too much.

Also, the Hawks are this year's "overachieving" team, running up the score at every opportunity and enjoying the ride and their performances. They should handily cover the spread the majority of the time this season. This prediction is based on the data I did last year by watching teams' performances versus the spread for the entire 2008-2009 season.

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