But every playoff upset is caused by the same problem: bad match-ups. The biggest upset I've seen was the Warriors over the Mavericks in round one of the 2007 playoffs. And there were matchup problems all over the court. It was like the Warriors had the athletic advantage at nearly every position. When the Pistons beat the Lakers in 2004? They had better players at 3 of 5 positions.
So the key to evaluating a playoff series is to trust your analysis and go with whoever has the 3 of 5 advantage. Or 2 of 1 in case of two ties. Etc.