Monday, March 9, 2009

Regression to the Mean, East meets West Part II

I was thinking about regression to the mean with regards to football betting.  Specifically, that a team on a losing streak, or playing really poorly, is bound to bounce back to "normal".  And when the team is really looking bad, and everyone is convinced they are in a funk, to the point where it has depressed their rating to produce a large disparity in the spread, is the right time to bet.  Essentially, betting losers.  but they have to be GOOD losers.  

And when people think a team has given up is probably when they are going to bounce back and "surprise" everyone.

Great quote from Deron Williams (courtesy of the Daily Dime):
Williams said it was difficult to prepare for the 12:30 p.m. tip-off after flying two time zones east and losing another hour of sleep after the clocks were moved ahead for the switch to Eastern Daylight Time.

"It's different," Williams said. "I was on the taping table laying down and I fell asleep. That was like 15 minutes before the game, so I was out of it."

The Jazz were also riding a ten game win streak, so I could have blamed them for being overly-fatigued from the win streak and losing badly.  Unfortunately, they covered the spread of 5, winning 109-101.  

Another note: Toronto held its opponent below 50 first-half points for the first time in eight games.

The jazz won the fourth quarter 28-14.  Thats unfortunate.  The Raptors should have won but I guess they aren't that good of a team.  Conversely, this could mean that the Jazz are a really good team now, able to win in those conditions.  it could also mean they are being set up for an energy-dump game coming up.  

Who knows?

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