Friday, December 26, 2008

Bowl Games: Part 1

When analyzing this season's worth of bowl games, a few things must be remembered:

1) Some teams are playing home games, in front of huge crowds.
2) Teams traveling long distance are not likely to have big crowds with them; especially crowds going from the south to the north because of the weather difference.
3) Some teams have lost coaches/coordinators before the bowl games.
4) Some players will be suspended for the bowl game.

FAU v Central Michigan
This is a home game for the Michigan team, and I doubt FAU will have many fans making the trip.
Cold weather could be a factor in practicing and general energy levels.
Sagarin Ratings: Central Michigan is +8.18 Line: CM by seven.

Prediction: CM covers spread.

Cal vs. Miami (Emerald Bowl)
Home game for Cal.
Miami has had 5 players suspended.
Miami relies on a lot of younger players.
Miami is making a huge road trip and is unlikely to bring more than a few thousand fans.
Miami has struggled running and Cal has a great running back/running game.
Cal has a much older team.
This is the Miami coaches first bowl game.

Prediction: Cal covers spread.

Champs Sports Bowl (Wisconsin v FSU)
Florida is +8.72 in Sagarin Ratings, favored by 5
Home game for Florida state
A N/S game because they are playing Wisconsin
blah blah blah.
Speed is more emphasized in the heat.

Prediction: Florida covers

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