"This is our playoffs"

I've heard this phrase many a time.  Athletes on a losing team refer to some upcoming game as "their superbowl" or "their playoffs".  Just off the top of my head I can remember Ray Lewis talking about the Patriots when the Patriots were undefeated; he said that his team was not making the playoffs and that this game (which was on MNF) was their Superbowl.  They were crushed when they lost on a controversial referee call.  

I heard Raja Bell refer to their upcoming game against the Lakers as it being a playoff game for them.  And I heard Gilbert Arenas refer to their game against Cleveland this year as their playoff game.  It happens a few times a year, when a team with a losing record plays a rival or big-time team that they match up well against and they play as hard as they can.  They really believe they can win.  

And they usually do.  And if not, they at least cover the spread. In the NBA especially, certain teams just match up well against superior teams.  Not every team, obviously, but against that one special team they match up well.  Like the Warriors and Mavericks in the 2007 playoffs.  

But this is usually a rare occurance and I don't think it is ever reflected in the spread for games.  Nevertheless, this is a major factor in the outcome of the game. It is a gametype I need to look out for.  Its not necessarily a cognitive bias but it is definitely a game type.  

I call it "the playoff".  

The Cavs were 12 point road favorites to the Wizards.  The Wizards arena was sold-out.  Considering they have less than twenty wins this season, that is indicative of how much it was rocking.  Also, when the Lakers visited Charlotte this year, the stadium had its largest crowd....ever.

Bleacher Report, Brief Recap

I've posted four articles on bleacherreport.com .   I wrote one article each about the Lakers, Clippers, Mavericks, and Steelers.  Combined they have been read 1,723.  This is very exciting and cool.  Bleacher Report allows me to practice my writing skills and spread my ideas out to a community of people. I hope to ideally find a few other people who are interested in researching, cognitive biases and prediction.  

Also, earlier I predicted the Mavs would be the Spurs.  They were two point underdogs, and they won.  Niiiiiice.

Bleacher Report and Mavs Follow-up

I recently wrote my second article at bleacherreport.com 

Article writing is not my main focus but it is a great community to voice ideas, receive feedback, and generally communicate and learn.  I wrote an article about the Lakers (specifically Andrew Bynum) and one about the Dallas Mavericks (specifically Mark Cuban).  

My first article received over 240 reads and one comment.  

My goal is to use the website as a way to post about various predictions and effort-skewed results.  These are games results which are heavily biased or skewed by either lack of effort or extra effort.  Blogging on here and writing on bleacher report will let me keep abreast of what happens in the NBA and record my observations for future use.  

I also want to reprint my articles here so that I can have a back up copy.  

Lastly, I'm hoping to meet one or two other people who are interested in my effort-based investigations in the NBA and have a similar eye for it.  

Last night's game and win streaks

A couple of thoughts today.  One is the game last night.  The Mavericks were at home and beat the Spurs 107-102.  They were two point underdogs and the Spurs are a good team.  

A few factors in their favor I knew about:

They had lost to the Spurs at San Antonio a few games before.

Mark Cuban had called out the team publicly and was demanding greater effort.

Effort trumps talent in the NBA.

One I didn't know about:

Joey Crawford was one of the referees. He has feuded with Duncan several times before and that would surely get in Duncans head.  It may have focused him more or less, I don't know, but he responded poorly this game.  

Selected quotes:

"I put it on my shoulders," Duncan said. "I really played an awful game on both ends. I've got to clean that up. ... They were real physical and I felt I got fouled on a couple things. But everybody feels like they get fouled sometimes. I tried to play through it, then started compounding by missing layups and missing shots. Frustrating night."

Critical phrase:  "they were real physical". that is the sign of a team that is playing hard, with sustained superior effort for the duration of the game.  Thats all one needs to know.  In fact, at the NBA level, it seems like one just needs to know who is going to play harder.  

Another thought:

I talked with my Dad last night and we talked about win streaks.  And I thought about how tough it would be to test win streaks for significance.  Essentially, if a team is winning games, are they more probable to continue winning games?  Are they on a "roll".  

And more critically, when do teams let up?  After how many games in a row will a team "ease off" or have a bad night with increasing probability?  How do I even go about testing these things?