TV Timeouts during NFL Games

The NFL showed why it is the premiere sports league in America with the highest value of its franchises: blatantly injecting as much commercialism as the American viewers can handle.  With two minutes to go in a blowout game between the Tennessee Titans and the Jacksonville Jaguars, the referees asked the Coach of the Titans to call timeouts simply to show ads to the viewers.

Its depressing.  And lame.  And shows why NFL teams make so much money.

Now the NFL is addressing concussion concerns and is threatening to suspend players who make violent helmet-to-helmet concerns and is attempting to address the culture of carelessness to physical violence in the NFL.   This is all a result of external pressures and none of it comes from any desire to decrease the occurrence of injuries in the most violent sport around by the NFL.

What lessons are to be learned from this ? Perhaps it is best to come up with something intriguing so people want to watch, them sell lots of advertisements to generate revenue.

The other thought I've had is how difficult it is to break into the NFL's monopoly on football.  Simply put, no one else could make a league that can really compete with them for violent outdoor sports.  The only other option to really consider is soccer, which is also an outdoor sport and caters to the same type of fans.

Conference Championship Games wrap-up

I thought the two games last weekend were great to watch. I enjoyed watching the Jets play the Colts. When the Jets led 17-6 I still thought it wasn't a big enough lead. I've rooted for teams to beat Peyton many a time and seen them build up a big lead, only to have it disappear. And I was amazed at how fast they scored their first touchdown, at the end of the first half.

The Jets were simply outmatched.

The NFC game was a whole other story. I think the Vikings were clearly the better team that day; if they hadn't had 5 turnovers, they would have won. Its that simple. I also felt like I was watching a primitive sport in overtime when a random coin flip was decided to basically determine who won the game. The Saints won the coin flip, marched down the field aid by a fortuitous play, and kicked a field goal to set off a celebration all over Louisiana.

The Colts will likely win the superbowl. It was a great game to watch. I'll start covering the NBA soon after the NFL season ends.

Conference Championship Games

A few quick thoughts on the games about to start:

The Saint's safety used to play with Favre (or against him regularly, I'm not sure). Anyways, having a safety and QB who are very familiar with each other will benefit one team more than the other. My guess is its the safety who can tell his teammates about Favre and make better reads.

Brett Favre is 40 and playing very well behind an excellent offensive line. What does that mean? A good offensive line means even a 40 year old can make the playoffs and pro bowl. A bad offensive line and no QB, no matter how talented, could make the playoffs.

Did the Colts create a monster by laying down against the Jets?

Only time will tell!

Bill Belichick's 4th down call

I like his call. It was aggressive, and determined to go for the win, not just avoid losing! I haven't been blogging lately, I just haven't had the urge to. Not sure why.

NFL Thought

When Favre went against the Packers at Minnesota, I was pretty darn sure he would have a good night. He was going against his old team, knew a lot of the players and personnel, and would chirp into the ears of his coaches everything he knew about the offense and defense of the whole team.

He finished with three TDs and the Vikings won easily.

Another example of a QB going against his old team.

NFL Week 4

NFL
Sunday, Oct. 4
HOUSTON	8½	Oakland	42½
Tennessee	3	JACKSONVILLE	41½
NEW ENGLAND	2	Baltimore	44½
Cincinnati	6	CLEVELAND	37½
N.Y. Giants	8½	KANSAS CITY	42
CHICAGO	10	Detroit	40½
WASHINGTON	7½	Tampa Bay	37
INDIANAPOLIS	10	Seattle	44
NEW ORLEANS	7	N.Y. Jets	45
Buffalo	0	MIAMI	37½
SAN FRANCISCO	9½	ST Louis	37
Dallas	3	DENVER	42
PITTSBURGH	6½	San Diego	42½

NFL
Monday, Oct. 5
MINNESOTA	3½	Green Bay+C38	45½

Quick NFL Thoughts

The 49ers play at the Vikings today. And I was told that Shaun Hill, the San Francisco QB, was the back up at Minnesota for three or four years. That means he will be very, very familiar with the stadium and surroundings, plus a number of the players who are still with the team. Of course, the coaching staff will be somewhat familiar with him, as well as members of the D, but I think overall the balance favors the QB over the defense. Plus, there has been a coaching change in Minnesota since he left.

And I think the 49ers are truly better than they have been, in terms of physicality and desire to win. They've already beaten last years NFC Champion and the Seahawks. So I think the spread of 7 points is too high.

Lastly, Favre has only been on the team two weeks, and didn't even spend all of training camp with the team. He simply can't know everything about the team that well.

So an official prediction is the 49ers will cover the spread.

The Brett Favre Hat Trick

Brett Favre has done it again, coming out of retirement to join a club right before the season begins. And I think that it is a genius - but unintentional- move by Brett. First off he will be in the same division as the Packers, for whom he played for many years.

So he knows his opponents quite well. But with Brett Favre, the added benefit is that he will be joining a team and creating a lot of excitement and motivation. I've written before about events providing a serious energy and motivation jolt for a team. Notably, Mike Singletary becoming the head coach of the 49ers midway through last season and simply preaching effort and hustle.

With Brett Favre joining the team, everything will be amped up and done more energetically. There will be a real sense of hope and optimism. And that helps players practice and perform better.

So while his quarterbacking skills provide an upgrade, the sense of possibility will provide another bonus in terms of improved practice and player energy.

Lastly, I think that this team wide sense of energy helps players come back from injury faster and get sick less often. These are known benefits of people who are happier and more optimistic. It stands to reason that a greater sense of possibility will take players who are marginal and put them firmly on the side of enthusiastic and giving that extra bit of preparation. And in a 60 minute football game, it can often hinge on the most unlikely of players involved in the most unlikely of plays.

Where do I go from here?

I need to get serious and rigorous in my hypothesizing and testing.  I have no database.  I have no knowledge of data-searching programs.  I have limited skills.  I have limited knowledge of NBA history and all the data I get is from secondary sources.  I can review blogs, websites, and watch videos all I want.  I have no primary source information.  There are many reasons why I will fail.  

I've studied football (both Pro and College) for several seasons and watched closely this year's NBA season.  I've been following point spreads closely for some time now.  So where do I go from here?  I have ideas that seem to be right.  I'm able (I think) to identify factors after the fact.  I need to make a database.  And I have no idea how to do that.  

Come to think of it, do I even need a statistical database?  The book Black Swan says that with more information I will be more confident in my picks but no less accurate.  Maybe I just need to keep observing and let my brain and its neural network do the work?

"This is our playoffs"

I've heard this phrase many a time.  Athletes on a losing team refer to some upcoming game as "their superbowl" or "their playoffs".  Just off the top of my head I can remember Ray Lewis talking about the Patriots when the Patriots were undefeated; he said that his team was not making the playoffs and that this game (which was on MNF) was their Superbowl.  They were crushed when they lost on a controversial referee call.  

I heard Raja Bell refer to their upcoming game against the Lakers as it being a playoff game for them.  And I heard Gilbert Arenas refer to their game against Cleveland this year as their playoff game.  It happens a few times a year, when a team with a losing record plays a rival or big-time team that they match up well against and they play as hard as they can.  They really believe they can win.  

And they usually do.  And if not, they at least cover the spread. In the NBA especially, certain teams just match up well against superior teams.  Not every team, obviously, but against that one special team they match up well.  Like the Warriors and Mavericks in the 2007 playoffs.  

But this is usually a rare occurance and I don't think it is ever reflected in the spread for games.  Nevertheless, this is a major factor in the outcome of the game. It is a gametype I need to look out for.  Its not necessarily a cognitive bias but it is definitely a game type.  

I call it "the playoff".  

The Cavs were 12 point road favorites to the Wizards.  The Wizards arena was sold-out.  Considering they have less than twenty wins this season, that is indicative of how much it was rocking.  Also, when the Lakers visited Charlotte this year, the stadium had its largest crowd....ever.

My 100th Post!

Well here is my 100th post on my blog Insights into Sports.  Incredible that I've made so many posts.  I have 210 profile views.  On Bleacher Report I've written four articles with a cumulative 1,886 article reads as of this writing.  Awesome.  I've done a lot but there is so much more that I could do.

The reason for this post though is to note that Jay Cutler has been traded from his team (the Denver Broncos) to the Bears.  The Bears are in the NFC while the Broncos are in the AFC.  This continues the trend of sending coaching talent and quarterbacks to opposing conferences so that they can't come back to haunt them.  To me it indicates a suspicion that someone's detailed knowledge of scheme and personnel could really hurt a former team.  

I've seen this many times and will be curious to see if the Bears play the Broncos.  If so, it is likely that Cutler would tear up the Broncos defense because he has seen them in practice for three years.  

The Genius: How Bill Walsh Reinvented Football and Created an NFL Dynasty Chapters 21 to 32

A major theme in the second half of the book is his separation from his family.  Even though he worked close to home (except when the team travelled) his son said "Essentially, I kind of grew up without a Dad" (193).  This is a theme that I have seen repeatedly.  Tony Dungy's son committed suicide from depression.  What did Tony do?  He kept coaching football.  That is drive.  

Also of note, the 49ers defense, coordinated by George Seifert, was very strong during their success in the 1980s.  They would frequently put the clamps down during important games and the other teams found it impossible to score enough points to win.  

great quotes:  

"As always, his fear of failure and his need for approval would energize his quest and turn it into what felt like a life or death enterprise in which his very existence was at stake" (236).

this shows the personality he had, defining himself by the success or failure of his team.

"to visualize each season as an expedition to conquer Mt. Everest.  Some teams made such assaults from base camps far in the valley below, sometimes rising near the peak but then sliding back down to the place they started, where they would often remain for extended periods before summoning themselves for another assault.  The Niners, by virtue of their accumulated accomplishments, now had a base camp far up the slope, within striking distance of the summit, from which they would sally forth every year" (236-237).  

He also felt that defense requires talent and offensive personnel shortcomings can be made up for with a good system.  

"Better a year too early than a year too late"  (239) when dealing with football players at the end of their career.  Bill also looked for chronic injuries as a sign that the player was getting too old. 

Another theme is how well Bill Walsh drafted.  In the 1986 draft, Walsh drafted eight players.  "All eight would become starters for the Forty Niners - and five would eventually be selected for the Pro Bowl".  

On the comeback in Super Bowl 23:

"In that kind of situation, with the pressure that's on the team, you want to have familiar plays that men are confident they can execute, rather than trying high-risk plays and depending on great individual effort.  In this circumstance, we were going to depend heavily on our "standard of performance'." (337).  They ran "high percentage plays".  

The story of Bill Walsh.  1931-2007

The Genius: How Bill Walsh Reinvented Football and Created an NFL Dynasty Chapters 11-20

Chapter 11 describes the 49ers as they started the season in which they would win the season.  

"What matters most is what you expect from yourself.  The players who do the best are those who expect the most.  The Forty Niners didn't play down or up tot he level of their opposition.  They played to meet their own standards and they expected nothing less from all of their teammates" (89).  This quote is a great quote and is most helpful when viewed side-by-side with its antithesis, a back-handed compliment given out to players who can "play up to the level of their competition".  

So when you hear of a player who plays better when he's playing good opponents, if he plays better when matching Kobe Bryant than Scruff McGruff, it should be viewed as a negative.  He's a slacker, not a competitor.  What it means is that player is more suspectible to losing games to average or below average teams because he won't be playing seriously or trying hard.  

Conversely, if one sees a team repeatedly blow out weaker opponents, like the Patriots during the 2007-2008 season or the Celtics in their 2007-2008 season (beating the Knicks by 40 points) one knows that team is a serious contender for playoff performance.  They set their own standards and will be a good pick to cover the spread and also will suprise with a few blowouts of teams that "play up to their opponents". 

A team that doesn't have a problem losing will get beat badly by teams that strive for excellence.  

Bill Walsh also expected precision from his coaches.  He chewed out a coach for saying "nice play" because it wasn't specific enough.  The coach had to complement the player for the specific actions taken.  

"Everyone has a role and every role is essential.  He was still convinced that championships are won with the bottom half of the roster" (89).  I also saw this in a book about the Patriots I read, where Bill Bellichick felt that same players on other teams (the bottom third) couldn't even make the practice squad of the Patriots.  

"You have to be ready to attack the problem and find a way to communicate about it without it being difficult.  We openly talk when tihngs go poorly and initiate a process to reverse adn change the miscalculation.  The Forty Niners are always talking to each other and always listening".  (91).  

Another gem:  "He was convinced that his team would never get better until it knew who it was, and that providing such an identity was the head coach's central function" (92).  

Bill Walsh also placed a premium on character, inspiration, and motivation.  This is a common theme, the idea of a locker room's identity and the people that enforce it.  "Walsh's projection of Young's impact would prove on teh mark, particularly on that last count.  An ordained Baptist preacher, Charle brought character in abundance, leading the team in pregame prayers and offering inspirational sermons to anyone in his vicinity" (107).  

I think this factor is more valuable in football than basketball.  

Bill also emphasized footwork and technique.  "He insisted he could always tell the outcome of the play just by watching the quarterback's feet".    Thats a very interesting point.  The faster the QB throws the ball, the more his play call are open on the first read.  The more the offense is winning the battle against the defensive play-caller.  Thats a very important thing to keep in mind when watching a game (110).  

Another common theme is Bill Walsh spending each off-season trying to bring in more talent.  

"this concentration on defense (in the draft) also reflected Bill's theory that his sy stem of offense could cover for talent shortages but not so with defense, where talent was essential and could not be compensated for" (126).  

Jack "Hacksaw" Reynolds was legendary for his intensity and work ethic and study of the game. 

He really set the example in terms of work ethic and intensity and a lot of young players keyed in on that.  

Joe Montana after the strike of the 81-82 season: "there were grudges and we weren't playing as a team.  We weren't working together and people weren't talking to teach other.  How can you win under those conditions?  A lot of players heads weren't into the game" (175).

After the season was over, "Walsh identified three things that led to their collapse.  1) Complacency  2)  Distractions  3) Drugs".

Drugs aren't a factor in the NFL (as far as I know).  Complaceny occured because "Its just human nature, especially for a team that hasn't been winning before and didn't yet have a legacy or tradition.  Suddenly you're invited to every golf tournament in the off-season.  Its hard to rekindle the same kind of hunger" (176).  

Complacency:  "We had too many guys writing books, or on speaking engagements, or otherwise enjoying the fruits of the Super Bowl.  We just got so distracted our edge disappeared".  

So lastly, signs of teams losing focus would be coaches writing books, players writing books.  Those are the most visible.  

The Genius: How Bill Walsh Reinvented Football and Created an NFL Dynasty. Chapters 1-10.

I'm 142 pages into The Genius, a book about Bill Walsh and his coaching legacy.  As a quick recap of his time with the 49ers, he coached from 1979-1988, winning the Super Bowl in 1981, 1984, and his final season 1988.  

A very impressive record.  Thats as many as Bill Belichick, the most successful coach of the current era.  Its a very fun read and exciting for me because I don't know very much about the Forty Niners history.  I remember watching games but very little about what was actually happening.  

The owner of the 49ers at the time was Eddie DeBartolo, who gave Bill Walsh free rein to both coach and be the GM.  This was unprecedented at the time.  The 49ers were performing horribly and had little to no success in any aspect of the game.  Bill Walsh won the Super Bowl in three years after taking over a team that was 2-14.  

The big question is how.  How did he do this?  What did he do differently?  The first trend I've picked up on is his willingness to trust his own judgement.  The corrolary is that his judgement is correct; it does you no good to trust your judgement if you are wrong.  But he also picked up on several inefficencies in the NFL at that time.  He anticipated the success of the "West-Coast Offense" whereby the offense throws lots of short, quick passes underneath the defense and generates significant yards after the catch.  

He was also an excellent judge of talent and was willing to continually cycle through talent to find good players.  

I was not surprised when I found this quote:  "We created an atmosphere in meetings in which a scout or coach was able to express himself completely.  If he overstated or understated in any category, he could change his opinion without being criticized.  We were interested only in results.  They could change their mind without being ridiculed.  Everyone was expected to participate."  This is a common trend among winners.  The simple fact is that one person simply can't be right all the time or know all the important information.  The problem occurs when people don't resolve conflicting views or share information.  Communication is key.

They also stressed positive reinforcement and communication from coaches to players about proper technique.  Bill Walsh stressed technique and would get upset at the assistants during practice if the players weren't displaying proper technique.  That creates a dynamic where the players want to do well because they don't want their assistant coach to be berated by the head coach.

This covers the first ten chapters of the book.  I will cover more later.  Enjoy!

Thoughts on the Super Bowl

I ended up betting $500 on the Cardinals to cover the spread of -7.  My Father flew to Reno to make the bet as well and bet some moneys that he had brought of his own and some from a few other people.  

I thought the game was very even between the two teams; I never thought the Cardinals were going to get blown out at any point during the game. 

I thought the Cardinals run defense was very impressive.  They Steelers had so many runs for negative yardage it was crazy.  

The Cardinals refused to throw the ball as much as I thought they should; however, they may have just been trying to keep the Steelers from dropping back to much.  Who can tell what chess match was going on  between the playcallers?

Otherwise it was even; I think the warm weather helped the Cardinals: look at their last two drives when Fitzgerald was just running rampant through their secondary.  If its cold slippery he probably wouldn't have made those plays.

I thought Ken Whisenhunt had the team prepared and their passing plays were very effective. 

So two of the three factors I mentioned in an earlier post appear to have worked out.

I thought the Cardinals body language showed they really thought they could beat the Steelers; credit the coaching on that one.  Offensively the Steelers scored twenty points to the Cardinals 23.  It was just that crazy interception that was the difference.  

Ben Roethelisburgers (I don't know how to spell it) scrambling ability is very under-rated.  He is so big and he scrambles but he always looks to pass out of the scramble.  That is a very strong skill in the NFL because defenses will stop the run but they can't cover all the receivers.  

Super Bowl XLIII: we've seen this before (sort of)

In the aftermath of the Cardinals' and the Steelers' victories, I read something very intersting.

Ken Whisenhunt was the tight-ends coach of the Steelers from 2001-2003, and the offensive coordinator from 2004-2006, including their Super Bowl run.  

He interviewed for the Head Coach position but lost to Tomlin; in the aftermath, he left the organization and went to the Cardinals.  So the Steelers thought they had seen the last of their former coach;  he's back, with a strong team.

And the reason I bring this up is because Super Bowl XXXVII (37) was very similar to this situation.  We have a former coach going up against his old team.  

SB 37:  Jon Gruden faces his old team (Raiders).  Gruden was one year removed from the job.  Gruden was head coach of Raiders and Bucs. 

SB 43:  Ken Whisenhunt faces his old team (Steelers).  Whisenhunt is two years removed from the job.  Whisenhunt was offensive coordinator, now is head coach.  

So this is now the third time in recent memory that something like this has happened:  SB 37, when San Francisco hosted Detroit (with Mike Martz, Detroits offensive coordinator from last season, as our new offensive coordinator).  The result both times has been the coach on the new team helping his new team dominate the old one.  

I've seen this twice in the pro-league and both times its been a bad loss for the former team.  Will it happen a third time?  

Remember: the Cardinals are good too.  And the game will be played in warm weather.  The Steelers are a cold-weather team with a great defense travelling to  a warm weather city to play a fast, dome offense.  Sounds just like when the Colts played the Bears.  

Random Football Facts

One would think that an intense rivalry game would feature more penalties, specifically personal fouls, maybe offsetting personal fouls, late hits, etc.  

More-penalized games tend to be low scoring because the penalties hurt the offense.  

Also, here is a post by Jim Glass with some interesting data. 

Tom Brady's passing rating when: 
Ahead by 9-16 .... 136 
Ahead ............. 99 
Behind............. 67 
Behind by 9-16 .... 57 

This suggests that when teams are forced to pass, and the defense expects a pass, it gets progressively harder to throw well.  

Conference Championships

Looking at your post about the luckiest teams (and actual games where the Eagles lost at the end of games) its surprising to think that a 12.1 win team (Eagles) would be road underdogs to a 8.2 win team especially win the 8.2 win team is from the NFC West. Concerning the Ravens/Steelers, we saw the Giants lose to Dallas twice in the regular season before finally solving the riddle at Dallas in the playoffs. The Ravens were so close both times and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they won. They have Superbowl experience, great leadership (Ray Lewis), and a good defense. That is a recipe for victory.

Lastly, if you look at how the Cardinals won, it was by intercepting the QB five times. But they only had 13 in the entire regular season. They average less than one per game. So perhaps they defense is playing really well. But its more likely that Carolina's offense was just really bad.

The toughest things to figure out are absolute measures of a team. I think I would have to have a great understanding of a team and watch the game three times at a minimum to figure out how good a team is. If the Cardinals defense is say, a 60 on a 100 point scale, but Carolina and Delhomme play at a 20 level, the Cards will really do well . But if Carolina plays at a 60 but the Cards at a 40, it will look worse for the Cards.

So the two concepts are the *normal skill* or average, median, mean, typical, or baseline, performance level of an a team unit. Then there are certain factors applied to it, for motivation, correct game planning, fatigue, familiarity between teams and players, etc. These factors can boost or reduce a teams number.

As an analyst one has to figure out the baseline level and then the true level. And these concepts can be difficult to discern because there is no easy way to measure them. A defense can only be graded relative to the offense it is playing against, which also has a myriad of its own factors. No home-boosted offense plays a home-boosted defense.

These are the problems I have to solve. The first is just watching a game several times. I've never watched a game more th an once. What if I watched it five times? What if I watched every game that a football team played all season five times?

Then I would have a tremendous understanding of that one team.

Book review: Moving the Chains

I recently read "Moving the chains: Tom Brady and the pursuit of everything" by Charles P. Pierce.  

It focuses primarily on Tom Brady and his personality, values, and demeanor.  It gives extensive detail about his Catholic upbringing, his relationship with his father, mother, and sisters, and the role football and baseball played in his youth.  

It is low on details of football; the author apparently decided to write the book based on the 2005 season, which was when they were coming off of two straight super bowl wins and struggled throughout the season before losing to Denver in the playoffs.  

It doesn't discuss much except focus on his relationships with different mentors and personalities. 

Don't read it unless you and deeply interested in his personality and relationships.

Effort in football and the 100 view mark

Well before I start I'd like to start my one dedicated reader for helping me get to the 100 views mark. Half are mine and the other half yours! Thanks!

Nobody can play at 110%. No one can exceed their potential.

In fact, very few people can even sustain 100% effort or intensity for very long.

Consider this: think of when you were working your hardest, focused on something to complete exclusion of everything else. That is 100%. Competing with desperation. Playing with fear, with an adrenaline rush so intense that it feels like a lion is chasing you. That would be 100%.

So most players are operating in some level between 60 and 90% effort.

100% effort looks almost insane. Its irrational. Its the exclusion of everything else from that persons life.

So maybe most people only give 95% effort at most.

The value of a "motivator" type coach: getting everyone in the organization to raise their effort level by maybe 5 or 10 percent.

And that's all it takes to win a lot of games. Is inspired effort in the weight room, in practice, in film sessions, and lastly on the field.