Too predictable?

I just read an article on Truehoop, found here, stating the Spurs were all business and getting ready for Oklahoma City.  If you hadn't heard, Manu Ginobili is out for the rest of the season with an ankle stress fracture.  

When a player goes down with injury on a sports team, it focuses everyone else.  They are all aware of how they have to step up and perform.  Media and friends say they have lost the season and can't compete anymore.  But when Manu goes down, there are still talented professional NBA-level players ready to take his place.  Its not that bad!

So it was a surprise to notice that the Spurs were only two point favorites against Oklahoma City tonight.  Oklahoma, the third worst team in the Western Conference!  I mean lets get serious here.  The Spurs lose Ginobili and they are only two point favorites?

Add this to the fact that the Spurs already lost once in OKC this year.  The result is the Spurs won by ten.  There is a pattern here with one supporting factor.   Team loses a key player to a surprise injury and focus and step up their game.  Supporting fact is the Spurs already lost once to Oklahoma and went through that embarassment once.  Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, ..... don't get fooled again. 

Especially consider that the Spurs were blown out at Cleveland and Tim Duncan had a horrible game.  I don't know how often he has back to back bad games, but he is a proven winner so it is doubtful.  Champions can bounce back from a bad performance.  

Another interesting thing to notice and observe in the coming days is the duration of their overachieving versus the spread.  There is a human limit to over-exertion and human tendencies to relax (as already discussed).  How long will the Spurs over-achieve?  Two games?  Three I'd assume at most before they return to their ways.  

Thoughts on Spurs-Cavs game

The Cavs dominated the whole game today.  From start to finish it was never close and never really out of control.  I read in the game notes that LeBron arrived to the stadium three hours ahead of tip-off to prepare, which is what he does to prepare for big games.  He scored 28 in the first half and 38 overall.  Interestingly this is coming after a close loss to the Wizards (a rivalry game) and a blow-out loss at the Orlando Magic (playoff competitor).  

So the team came out focused, fired-up, etc.  The spread was six points and they won by twenty.  Easily won by twenty.  They are also the best home team in the league at this point.  Games like this are definitely predictable.  

It would be great to get information about if/when LeBron shows up three hours early to games.  What their winning percentage is?

Bleacher Report, Brief Recap

I've posted four articles on bleacherreport.com .   I wrote one article each about the Lakers, Clippers, Mavericks, and Steelers.  Combined they have been read 1,723.  This is very exciting and cool.  Bleacher Report allows me to practice my writing skills and spread my ideas out to a community of people. I hope to ideally find a few other people who are interested in researching, cognitive biases and prediction.  

Also, earlier I predicted the Mavs would be the Spurs.  They were two point underdogs, and they won.  Niiiiiice.

Last night's game and win streaks

A couple of thoughts today.  One is the game last night.  The Mavericks were at home and beat the Spurs 107-102.  They were two point underdogs and the Spurs are a good team.  

A few factors in their favor I knew about:

They had lost to the Spurs at San Antonio a few games before.

Mark Cuban had called out the team publicly and was demanding greater effort.

Effort trumps talent in the NBA.

One I didn't know about:

Joey Crawford was one of the referees. He has feuded with Duncan several times before and that would surely get in Duncans head.  It may have focused him more or less, I don't know, but he responded poorly this game.  

Selected quotes:

"I put it on my shoulders," Duncan said. "I really played an awful game on both ends. I've got to clean that up. ... They were real physical and I felt I got fouled on a couple things. But everybody feels like they get fouled sometimes. I tried to play through it, then started compounding by missing layups and missing shots. Frustrating night."

Critical phrase:  "they were real physical". that is the sign of a team that is playing hard, with sustained superior effort for the duration of the game.  Thats all one needs to know.  In fact, at the NBA level, it seems like one just needs to know who is going to play harder.  

Another thought:

I talked with my Dad last night and we talked about win streaks.  And I thought about how tough it would be to test win streaks for significance.  Essentially, if a team is winning games, are they more probable to continue winning games?  Are they on a "roll".  

And more critically, when do teams let up?  After how many games in a row will a team "ease off" or have a bad night with increasing probability?  How do I even go about testing these things?

Spurs Watch? Why not!

I read the comments in the Spurs loss to Cleveland and Portland and found some interesting nuggets.

"That's the best thing about the NBA," James said. "In the NBA you can play as bad as you ever played one night and the NBA schedule allows you to make up for it the next night."

A great quote by Tony Parker:  "I wanted Timmy to play," Parker said. "I was worried in a game like that everybody would run out of gas because the last two games we spent so much energy in a back-to-back, especially coming off a long road trip. I was just scared we didn't have enough in the tank, and it showed tonight."

Shorthanded all week, Parker scored a combined 76 points to carry the Spurs in victories over Dallas and Portland. But Cleveland wasn't a one-man job.

Portland game:

The Spurs didn't even play Duncan in the fourth quarter after Portland led by as many as 29 points. 

"To start the game that way against a team we had beaten pretty good quite recently was disappointing. It shows possibly a laissez-faire sort of attitude," Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said. "I would have expected us to come out knowing we were in for a heck of a battle. I'm not sure we came with the approach or respect we needed."

So what can be concluded from this?  The Spurs went on a road trip, played hard and focused.  They came home and played back to backs without Tim Duncan- they won both, showing they played hard and were focused.  Then they played another game at home with Duncan a late scratch.  They weren't emotionally or energetically ready to play without T.D. and were flat.  They lost badly.  

Then they went to Portland and played a team they beat badly only now it was at home.  Portland ran them out of the building.  Also, Parker scored a bunch of points in the back to backs, so he was drained.  Its a classic case of a player stepping up his game during an injury to a team mate.  But with every step up comes a step down.  No one can exceed their normal efforts for too long without requiring rest.