Bill Belichick's 4th down call

I like his call. It was aggressive, and determined to go for the win, not just avoid losing! I haven't been blogging lately, I just haven't had the urge to. Not sure why.

"This is our playoffs"

I've heard this phrase many a time.  Athletes on a losing team refer to some upcoming game as "their superbowl" or "their playoffs".  Just off the top of my head I can remember Ray Lewis talking about the Patriots when the Patriots were undefeated; he said that his team was not making the playoffs and that this game (which was on MNF) was their Superbowl.  They were crushed when they lost on a controversial referee call.  

I heard Raja Bell refer to their upcoming game against the Lakers as it being a playoff game for them.  And I heard Gilbert Arenas refer to their game against Cleveland this year as their playoff game.  It happens a few times a year, when a team with a losing record plays a rival or big-time team that they match up well against and they play as hard as they can.  They really believe they can win.  

And they usually do.  And if not, they at least cover the spread. In the NBA especially, certain teams just match up well against superior teams.  Not every team, obviously, but against that one special team they match up well.  Like the Warriors and Mavericks in the 2007 playoffs.  

But this is usually a rare occurance and I don't think it is ever reflected in the spread for games.  Nevertheless, this is a major factor in the outcome of the game. It is a gametype I need to look out for.  Its not necessarily a cognitive bias but it is definitely a game type.  

I call it "the playoff".  

The Cavs were 12 point road favorites to the Wizards.  The Wizards arena was sold-out.  Considering they have less than twenty wins this season, that is indicative of how much it was rocking.  Also, when the Lakers visited Charlotte this year, the stadium had its largest crowd....ever.

Book review: Moving the Chains

I recently read "Moving the chains: Tom Brady and the pursuit of everything" by Charles P. Pierce.  

It focuses primarily on Tom Brady and his personality, values, and demeanor.  It gives extensive detail about his Catholic upbringing, his relationship with his father, mother, and sisters, and the role football and baseball played in his youth.  

It is low on details of football; the author apparently decided to write the book based on the 2005 season, which was when they were coming off of two straight super bowl wins and struggled throughout the season before losing to Denver in the playoffs.  

It doesn't discuss much except focus on his relationships with different mentors and personalities. 

Don't read it unless you and deeply interested in his personality and relationships.

Arizona at New England: The Curse of Cold Weather

This past weekend New England hosted the Arizona Cardinals.  A summation of the conditions leading up to the game is this:

Arizona had locked up its playoff spot and could not gain a higher seed.

New England was still fighting for its playoff spot; this was a must-win game.

Arizona is a warm weather team playing in a snow storm.

Arizona is a West-coast team traveling to the East coast.  

It is also a southern team traveling to the north.  

New England is coached by Bill Belichick, one of the best game-planners in the league.

The Cardinals were being quarterbacked by Kirk Warner, a passer already game-planned against successfully in the Patriots first Super Bowl victory.  

The Patriots were favored by 4.5 points.

They lead 47-0 with five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter.  Final score 47-7.  

The Cardinals were trailing the previous week 28-0 at half time.  This is an NFC West team that is very weak, but in charge of an even weaker division.  So they are getting blown out and should continue to do so until the merciful end of their regular season.  

This was a really golden opportunity.  Too bad I missed out.  But there will be more opportunities.  

The strength of the Patriots

I've read several books now about the Patriots and the gist of their success has been that they don't splurge on high-profile athletes so that they can strengthen the middle and bottom parts of their line-up.  

Bill Belichick even commented that players from their practice squad are better than people on other team's rosters.   

The Patriots essentially try to recruit tough, savvy veterans who are smart and can handle their coach.  An interesting point was whether the people they were drafting/signing could "handle their coach", i.e. handle the way he coaches.  

Thats very interesting as I read about lots of player/coach conflicts, which obviously hurt morale, team unity, player focus, etc.  The Patriots put an emphasis on making sure that everything works smoothly so they can focus on working football games.  

The so-called "80/20" rule, where coaches spend eighty percent of their time worry about twenty percent of their players, doesn't really apply to the Patriots because they put effort into making sure all the players can "handle" their coach and don't cause the problems that become distractions.  

Book review: Patriot Reign

Patriot Reign by Michael Holey.  I read this book in about a day and a half.  It essentially details their first Superbowl campaign and a surface look at Belichick's management philosophy.  I can't say I was impressed with the depth of it but I think I was hoping for more X's and O's, more terminology.  Half the book is spent just detailing what happened, which I already knew all about.  

Nevertheless it had a lot of good points and illustrated his methods.  After being in the Navy I am surprised that Belichicks method is considered unique in the NFL because it seems very straigtforward and logical.  But then again, it is an illogical world we live in.

Bill Belichick is all buisness.  He felt Parcells was unfocused and disrespectful to the team by searching for a new job the night before the Super Bowl in 1996.

They felt Pete Carroll was a good teacher but not a good manager of people.  That has translated well for him to USC, where he has had a lot of succcess.  But as I've said before, not as much as be could have.  

The old Patriots system had a culture of entitlement and preferential treatment.  The new Patriots are much more of a meritocracy.  Constantly searching for who can play the best now, not who played the best a year ago, and factoring in the price of the player.  

Belichick on the Bledsoe-Brady controversy "You don't take a player who hasn't played in two months and then just stick him back in there like nothing had happened".

Great quote "Now there's not one person in this room- not one- who can't improve.  And it starts wit me.  I'll sit down with any of you and show you where you can improve.  Any of you.  Okay?  So all of us can be better and need to be better.  There's not oging to be any toleration for 'I'm doing my job, someone else can do their's better' " (p. 99).

Some things can't be corrected until the off season.  Attitude and communication can be fixed at any time.

Lastly, Bill Belichick wanted to work for an owner with whom he could communicate, and not someone who was easily swayed by the outside opinin of the day. (p 191)

The learning curve of the NFL

How fast is the NFL? Whats the speed of their learning? How quickly do they adapt to a new beast?

Conversely, how long can someone really rise above their peers at such an elite level?

I think the answer to all of those questions lies in the Patriots 2007-2008 season. Their season was the most interesting -and informative- season I've ever seen. They started out very strong and were routinely beating opponents by three or four touchdowns. Their dominance extended through nine games. It culminated in a 56-10 drubbing of the Buffalo Bills.

Interestingly, the Patriots were booed by the fans. They were "too good".

Just one game later they barely won by three points against an inferior Ravens team. Then they began an impressive winning streak until the Super Bowl, where they lost by three points. However, the second half of the season was highlighted by close calls, narrow victories, and Tom Brady's out-of-this-world play which kept them ahead of the curve.

However, the season shows that no system of players and coaches, plays and training, can peak for longer than about 11 weeks.

In World War I combat doctors realized that after 200 days of intense combat men became so melancholy from "battle fatigue" that they were no longer effective fighters. I am definitely not comparing World War I to football, but there is a common theme that humans can only endure so much sustained, superior effort before they either fall back or are caught from behind. There is only so much willpower stored in the human soul.

Tom Brady: The value of one man

How valuable is one man to the success of a team?  Apparently, pretty valuable.

The Patriots had a record setting offense last season, and peaked in a 52-7 win over the Redskins.  Now Tom Brady is gone and they scored only ten points in a game last week against  the San Diego Chargers.  They were losing 30-3 in the closing minutes.  

So what has changed?  They have all the receivers back.  Their QB Tom Brady is gone with a torn ACL.  And their offensive line (I think) has had injury troubles. 

This team is a perfect example of the "skill" players outside of quarterback not really effecting the outcome of the game.  Its the offensive line that matters first.  They struggled in the Super Bowl because of their offensive line, and are now basically a second or third rate team because their offense has been decimated.