NBA Finals 2010

The NBA Finals were an amazing series. I am a Laker fan so I'm obviously happy about the way it turned out; however I have a few thoughts on some other angles to the series that I want to write down before I forget them.

Doc Rivers was disparaged as a coach who couldn't get a system in place or get productivity out of the Celtics before the current "Big 3" was assembled in the summer of 2007. Now he is seen as more of a veteran's coach who gets peak performance out of a unit where egos could easily dominate and cause diversity.

I'm going to say he's largely the same person he was before and after the 2008 season. So what gives? Well, contrast that to Avery Johnson, who is a control oriented coach with seemingly perfect technical knowledge and attention to detail. He also oversaw two of the biggest choke jobs in NBA history, squandering a 2-0 lead in the NBA Finals to a Miami Heat team that only won 52 games that year (compared to Dallas' sixty games). The following year, his 67 win team (67!!!) lost to the Golden State Warriors who squeaked into the playoffs on the final day of the regular season, before promptly losing 4-1 to Utah, who lost 4-1 to the Spurs, who finally won the championship.

Meanwhile, Doc Rivers lead a team with a solid starting five to upset victories over the league leading Cavaliers (61 wins) and then the Magic (59 wins) and nearly beat the Lakers, narrowly losing a game 7 in which the lead by 13 points in the third quarter.

Whats the difference? How can one coach who is able to pound and mold a team into a well-oiled regular season machine able to choke in the playoffs while coach Doc Rivers stumbles through home losses to the Nets and Wizards only to pull a five headed rabbit out of the proverbial hat once the playoffs start?

I don't know. I doubt anyone does. But consider a quote from Doc Rivers who said, and I quote "I'm a typical guy. I can point out the problem but I don't have a solution". It takes a big man to say that. Avery Johnson would never say that. Ever.

Ever.

Game 2 Thoughts and Game 3 preview

Game 2 of the NBA Finals featured Ray Allen setting the 3 point shot record in the NBA Finals, with seven consecutive and 8 total three-pointers made. Despite his record performance, the Celtics trailed by 3 with five minutes remaining at a score of 90-87. The Celtics squeaked out a victory with the help of Rajon Rondo's triple double and amazing offensive rebounds.

Lamar Odom played 15 minutes due to over aggressive play; he's probably so amped up after sitting on the bench that he plays with too much energy at the start and ends up collecting fouls. His desire to contribute and play is actually hurting his performance.

Ron Artest had a 1-10 shooting night but is still doing amazing work on Paul Pierce defensively. They are simply letting Ron Artest guard his straight up on the perimeter knowing that Bynum and Gasol are simply camping in the paint waiting for a drive.

Which reminds me: Kendrick Perkins and Bynum are basically having a war in the paint and its working out in the favor of the Lakers as the Lakers perimeter defenders can be up in everyone's jersey, knowing that dribble penetration will be met by a rejuvenated Bynum and the ever-active Gasol.

Kevin Garnett looks so fragile I think I could guard him one on one. He knows that Gasol is taller, stronger, heavier, quicker, and younger. Advantage: Lakers.

If Ray Allen didn't have the GREATEST NIGHT IN FINALS HISTORY the game wouldn't have even been close. If he had shot his season average 40 percent and made four instead of eight, those missing points would have meant they were down 15 with five minutes to go instead of 3. An insurmountable lead.

Nate Robinson comes in cold off the bench and hits a fall away 3 pointer? I'm comfortable letting a castoff from one of the leagues worst teams shooting as many fall away 3-pointers as he wants.

Ray Allen was making catch and shoot 3s all night. Thats an amazing feat and he's legitimately the best shooter in the NBA right now. But thats all he's making. He isn't creating off the dribble or beating them one on one like Kobe can. So how about Shannon Brown quits leaving him to help in the lane and Derek Fisher fights through some screens? I mean get serious here. The Lakers will win Game 3 and they will win the series in 6.

Kevin Garnett dominated Rashard Lewis in the Orlando series? Rashard Lewis, a 6'10" power forward who needed to take HGH to average 5 rebounds a game? Really? Now that he's been suspended and off the juice for a year Kevin Garnett is boasting of his performance over him? Gasol is taller, heavier, stronger, and mentally tougher and most importantly, has faced the KG blitz before. He failed in 2008. He won't again.

The Lakers and Celtics are in the Finals

To prepare for the Finals, which start tomorrow, I'm going to do a player by player comparison to determine which team has the advantage in the series.

Home Court: advantage goes to the Lakers. However, both are veteran teams, and both played well on the road. So I'd have to say that I doubt home court advantage will be a big factor in this series.

Point Guard: Rajon Rondo vs. Derek Fisher. Rajon has had some monster games this season and also led his teams in WP. Derek Fisher is 35 and not much of a dribble penetration kind of guy. The Celtics have a huge advantage in Rondo v Fisher.

Shooting Guard: Kobe Bryant vs. Ray Allen. Obviously, Kobe is Kobe, skilled at everything, and performing really well now that his knee is in better shape. The Celtics have Ray Allen, who is adept at moving without the ball, rolling around multiple screens, and hitting open shots. The problem for the Lakers is that it forces Kobe to spend energy on defense chasing Ray Allen. The problem for the C's is that Ray Allen will probably have to guard Kobe, which is very tough to do.

Small Forward: Paul Pierce versus Ron Artest. PP is a very good player, especially on offense. Ron Artest is a good player, especially on defense. Its a situation of one players strengths going against anothers strengths, which is rare. Most players make it to the NBA based on offense. Ron Artest was brought to the Lakers for defense. Also, Ron Artest has been hitting corners threes very well lately and playing under control. So while the Cs have the advantage when it comes to their best player, its not as much of one as I'd suspect. Ron Artest is happy to play like a pitbull all game against Ron Artest and nothing else.

Power Forward: Keven Garnett versus Pau Gasol. Advantage Lakers. With all due respect to KG and what he's done over the years, Pau is better. Hes much better on offense. However, same situation as the last position. Pau is great on offense, KG is great on defense. Tireless, relentess defense. Also, KG has always been a good outside shooter and has an array of post moves. Over the course of a season, Pau is better. A seven game series? Not as sure. Advantage Lakers, but not a big one.

Center: Two guys who are there for their defense, defending each other. Great. I expect 2.45 ppg for each player! Ha, we'll see. Between Kendrick Perkins technical foul trouble and Bynums knee problems, I expect both players to miss significant playing time this series. Advantage: No one.

6th Man: Lamar Odom vs. Glen Davis/Rasheed Wallace. Neither Cs sub has the combination of mobility and strength to match Lamar. He is also rebounding very well (see his 19 rebound performance against the Suns). Davis and Wallace both have their strengths, also Wallace has had back problems and is as likely to throw up a clunker of a game as he is a good game. Wallace does seem dialed in and focused, however. Advantage Lakers.

Bench: Both benches are erratic. The Lakers PGs may be able to help with Rajon Rondo ( Shannon Brown and Farmar) but beyond that, its a toss up as to which team's bench will have a good game and which one won't. Whoever blinks first losses the championship.

Coaches: Both veterans, both experienced. Doc Rivers had a reputation for being overmatched and incompetent before the Big 3 arrived, and he is now hailed as an amazing coach. Probably somewhere in between. Jackson's main coaching strategy has been to have Jordan, Pippen, Rodman, Shaq, Kobe, and now Gasol, as his players. I thought Stan Van Gundy did a better coaching job last year in the Finals.

Prediction? I don't know.

Streak for the Cash

I watched the Lakers/Rockets game yesterday, and Lakers just gave the game away.  From the first possession to the last possession, it really seemed like no one gave a crap.  It was astonishing.  And I don't think they will win the championship.  They almost looked bored with the game.  I've never seen anything like it.  And I haven't spent that much time watching games this season or over the course of my life, but it was really, really bad.  

Contrasted to the Celtics last season in the finals, who were also leading a series 2-1, who were also down by about 20 at half time, and who came roaring back to seal the series with a 3-1 lead.  That was amazing to see the difference.

Also, I'm starting to play the "streak for the cash" on ESPN.  Its a lot of fun.  This is a great way to practice making picks and work on my theories that is free with a small chance at reward. 

And I noticed that the crowd is usually wrong, so no surprise there.  I would have picked Rashard Lewis to outscore Ray Allen (he did) but I picked a minute too late so I randomly picked the Red Sox to beat Tampa Bay at home to start my streak out.  And they won!  So hurray for that!

Thoughts on the Playoffs

My first thought is about Stephon Marbury, the second about Mikki Moore.  I read on Wages of Win that Mikki Moore was not a very good player; he simply played more minutes and his productivity was up because of it.  

Also, Stephon Marbury came out of a one and a half year hiatus to play for the Celtics and is not nearly as productive as he was.  And I don't think that should be surprising.  If you don't play NBA level basketball, or any level basketball, for 18 months, you can't come back and be an impact player as a guard.  Maybe a big man could do it, but not a small player who relies on quickness, speed, and shooting touch/shooting confidence.  

Are there counter examples?  BR article, perhaps?

Could the Magic beat the C's?

Could the Magic beat the Celtics...and the Cavaliers?

The Celtics, without Garnett, are basically a 50-win team.  Thats too bad because with Garnett they were one of the best teams around in a long time.  Or were they?  I don't know!  

Anyways, I think Orlando will beat the Celtics, Cavs will beat the Hawks, Lakers beat the Rockets, and Denver beat Dallas.  

In the next round though?  Orlando could very well beat the Cavs.  They beat them twice in Orlando (both times pretty badly) and almost won in Cleveland.  The Magic are a good team.  They have power forwards of height 6-10 and 6-10, and a 6-11 center.  And one of their forwards is a great three point shooter.  

Cleveland is good and plays very hard; but their undersized guards will be a liability in challenging their perimenter players.  And if the guards penetrate they will have to deal with the Defensive Player of Year Dwight Howard, who is quite good at blocking shots (lead the league this year).  

But they still have to get past the Celtics.  

Clippers at Celtics

Clippers lost by thirteen. Spead was 8.5.   Not the blowout I predicted, but they nevertheless lost and failed to cover the spread.  rah.

Two losses, one cause?

Recently the Lakers and Boston both lost games.  

The Celtics lost 93-91 at the Clippers.

Selected quotes:"I thought we played slow all night, we pouted all night, we just thought we could show up and win a game -- and we didn't. I just didn't think we played with the type of spirit we played with on this entire trip.- Coach Doc Rivers.  

"We looked at their record, and not at their personnel."

The Clippers also had guard Baron Davis back, a player known to play up to the level of his competition...or down, as the case may be.  

The Lakers lost 90-79 at the Denver Nuggets.  

The Lakers, who brought the NBA's best record (48-10) into town when they checked into their hotel at 4 a.m., 

"That was a garbage game, no doubt about it," Lakers coach Phil Jackson said. "I wish we could repay the fans some money for that game. Neither team played very well, but they played better than us."

"Tonight, we [played] as active and as intelligent of a defensive game as I think we've played all year long or maybe ever since I've been here," Karl said. "We challenged a lot of shots, it was a tremendously active defensive game."

Mix this "with our offensive skills, we can be great," Karl said. "This is a playoff type of game for us. I'm not sure they played it that way, but it's going to be a good night and a good sunrise."

Bryant said this was the perfect storm of a fatigued team facing a fired-up team on little rest with little room for error.

"We've got a totally different team, a totally different mind-set."

One he hopes will finally lead to his initial playoff success after five straight first-round flame-outs.

Four nights after suffering a 38-point blowout by Boston at the Pepsi Center, the Nuggets hung tough with the Lakers, leading 66-63 after three quarters before pulling away.

"We really looked forward to playing another team like this after that Boston massacre," Billups said. "They came into town with the best record, best team in basketball, it was a great opportunity for us."

This last quote is especially important.  It shows that after getting embarassed, the Nuggets, a division leader, saw the Lakers as an immediate chance to take on another highpowered team.  And they came out popping while the Lakers were flat.  

Its a quality team rebounding after a bad loss.

I recently read a post on Truehoop about Darius Miles.  He is a player who was coming off knee surgery and was trying to find his way back into the league.  In the process, he tried out for several teams.  One of these teams was the Celtics, and this is what he said:

"So far, Miles' physical condition, coming off major knee surgery, hasn't proved to be a major setback. 'When I went to training camp with the Celtics they established in me that you play hard every time you're in a game and in practice,' Miles said. 'Seeing what a championship team does made me realize that you have to work hard every time and that's what I'm going to do.'"

This again emphasizes the effort aspect of play.  If the average level of intensity is 70% for a game, the Celtics are at maybe 90% for a given practice or game.  Or maybe 85%.  Either way, it is sustained superior effort that helps them win games that they might not win ordinarily.  Conversely, some teams will be below 70% effort. 

I think teams that would be giving out minimum effort, or individual players giving minimum effort, would be players with guaranteed contracts, veteran players, and players on losing teams.  

Players with no hope yet.  Younger players with more at stake will tend to give more effort, teams doing better than the year before and with a defineable goal (either making the playoffs or winning a championship are the only two I would consider "major).  Lastly, players in a contract year.

Look at Baron Davis: Last year he played in every game because it was a contract year.  Now he has a 62 million dollar contract on losing team and hasn't played in many games while shooting his lowest percentage from the field ever.  He is giving maybe 50% effort right now.

The 13th man in basketball?

The 13th man in basketball represents the synergy of all the players and how well they play together in close, pressure situations.

Three examples:

1) Mavericks vs Heat in the 2006 basketball finals

Dwayne and Shaq.  Shaq was the focus in the first quarter, Dwayne in the the 4th.  But Wade had trouble with taking over because he was young and Shaq had three championships.  They struggled in the finals until Wade got very aggressive with attacking the basket and creating.  

Conversely the Mavs go-to guy was Nowitzki, who couldn't force the issue against really aggressive defense because his strength is shooting rather than bulling into the lane and forcing the issue.  

2)  Celtics 07-08

Pierce/KG/Allen

They struggled against the Hawks (3 losses) and the Cavs (3 losses), al lin very close games.  By the time they played the Lakers they had decided who their clutch player was, who their playmaker was.  He could fire away at any time.  Essentially the Celtics hadn't been tested, didn't know what to do in close games and it cost them a lot.  KG wanted to defer to PP, PP wanted to defer to KG.  KG knew PP was the better offensive player, but KG was older, more experienced, and former league MVP. 

3) USA Olympic Team 2008

KB24 was the senior citizen and a lot of "the peers" were tentative late in the gold medal game.  Kobe took over and kept up the aggressiveness.  Close games but no losses.  

The "take over" player has to be a slasher with aggressive moves to consistently win close games.  Look at why LeBron has done so well in the playoffs with a crappy team.  They play good defense and he can always, always force the issue by getting to the rim.  

The "takeover" player has to be fast, strong, and good at the rim.  

Celtics as repeat champions? I think not

I'll be honest: I don't think the Celtics will repeat as champions.

There are three factors I can think of that will stop them. The first is their energy-oriented defense. The second is the loss of James Posey. And the third is the learning curve of the other NBA teams.

It is very, very tough to play with the kind of intensity and energy the celtics played with last season. And their three stars are all over thirty. I know Kevin Garnett is apparently Mr. Intensity but it only takes an injury to one of their three stars to really cut back on everyones intensity. Look for any small injury to Pierce, Garnett or Ray Allen to make them think twice about training so hard and playing so hard.

James Posey James Posey James Posey. How are they possibly going to replace him? He is like a rich man's Bruce Bowen: Bigger, stronger, and just as good at shooting threes and focused about defense. The recent NBA champions have had either Bruce Bowen, James Posey, Ben Wallace/Tayshaun Prince, or Kobe as a perimeter defender. I'm not too familiar about the championship lakers from five years ago but I'd assume they had some strong perimenter defenders.

Watching the games with James Posey he was always very strong at committing the "foul after the foul" to stop the continuation basket. He also was generally active on the perimeter and I good three point shooter. Some of his shots were only makeable because of his height, able to release the ball eight feet up and falling back slightly.

And lastly is the speed of learning for NBA coaches and players. Defensive schemes can be figured out. Tendencies set it. Players come back ready for the physicality, the intimidation.

I'm not saying the Celtics won't be good this year, but the Cavs, Pistons, Lakers, Hornets, and potentially Jazz will all be gunning for top status this year and will be gearing up for the Celtics. Thats what happens when teams win in sports. Everyone else gets ready to beat them specifically.