Clippers Season Recap

I posted an article on Bleacher Report about the Clippers' remaining games and which games I thought they would be blown-out in.  A blow-out to me is losing by 15 or more points and definitely not covering even the largest NBA point spreads.

The article can be found here.

I made six picks about the Clippers.  

Clippers hosting Cleveland.  Lost 83-87.  DID cover spread.

Clippers playing at Detroit.  Lost 108-90.  DID NOT cover spread.

Clippers playing at Boston.  Lost 90-77.  DID NOT cover spread (was 8.5).

Clippers playing at Denver.  Lost 120-104.  Did not cover spread (was 14).

Clippers playing at Utah.  Lost 106-85.  Did not cover spread.

Clippers hosting Oklahoma City.  Lost 126-85.  Did not cover spread.

So for five of the six games they failed to surpass expectations and lost badly.  

They lost all four road games badly.

The first home game was very close, the last home game was against the fourth-worst team in the league.  

Anyways, I was 5-1 for that article.  The predictability of losers?  

I think that when teams that have quit play good, focused teams they really struggle and will give up, especially against the better defensive teams.  

Lakers at SacTown

As I write this I this the Lakers are winning 86-72 at Sacramento.  They are only two point favorites on the road.  That seems a little silly to me.  Perhaps oddsmakers are thinking their motivation has wavered and they have lost focus.  

However, two nights ago the Lakers nearly lost to the Clippers after blowing a big lead.  The only thing better for tonight would have been if they'd lost to the Clippers.  Then they would have been very focused and vengeful.  

As it is they will still likely blowout the Kings.  The question is why was the spread so low?  

I think it was because of their near defeat to the Clippers.  But remember the lag factor.  By the time everyone has profiled the Lakers as losing focus, they have switched gears and become focused and wary.  By the time everyone thinks they are focused and playing hard, they will be slipping back into mediocre habits.  And so the pendulum swings, back and forth, back and forth.

The important lesson is that one needs to anticipate.  A close loss to a bad team will spur greater effort the next time a bad team is played.  A dominant win over a bad team will encourage less effort and focus the next time it is played.  There is the back and forth between expectations and effort.  Strong effort yields results and overkill which encourages less effort.  Rarely do players play hard for no reason.  A series of dominant wins will usually provoke less effort from the top team, steadily dropping until a bad loss wakes them up and spurs greater effort.  

Quick Update

Last night Denver hosted the Clippers.  In my Bleacher Report article on the Clippers, I predicted the Clippers would get blown out by the Nuggets.  They did, losing by sixteen points.  Also, the spread was fifteen points, so Denver covered despite a huge spread.  This prediction was made on the basis of the Clippers being a recent opponent of the Nuggets; the Clippers having no motivation for the game; and the Nuggets trying to maintain a high seed.  

Prediction Total:  10-6

Clippers at Celtics

Clippers lost by thirteen. Spead was 8.5.   Not the blowout I predicted, but they nevertheless lost and failed to cover the spread.  rah.

The Clippers: Laziest Team Ever?

I just read the Daily Dime on ESPN and they had a scouts message saying the Clippers were the laziest team he had ever seen.  Now that is quite a statement.  The laziest team ever seen in the NBA?  What conspires to create the laziest team ever?

First off, I think it is that they play in the Laker's shadow.  There is usually very little attention and fanfare.  Unfortunately, little attention means little negative press when they suck.  Little attention paid, few fans demanding improvement.  So there is much less pressure to improve.  And the Lakers are doing so well that it has to affect the conscious of the whole organization.  They are the second fiddle, and the first fiddle has the best record in the NBA.

Not only is there little negativity when they lose, but there is little praise when they win?  They beat the Celtics?  Lakers did it twice already.  Everything they do is already surpassed.  It creates a very laissez-faire mentality.  

Of he who little is expected, little is received.  

Here are selected quotes from the Daily Dime's interview with anonymous scouts:

"I think a lot of people would say Toronto. Not me. The Clippers are the laziest team I've ever seen. I know they've had a lot of injuries, but they just don't play hard. Their good players don't play hard.

"They have enough talent to be relevant. But it looks to me like they're trying to become the Oakland Raiders, going out and getting all the guys who are on their last chance.

"So don't be surprised if they go after Iverson in the summer. If there's one place where [signing Iverson as a free agent] can sell tickets, it's there [in Clipperland]."

What does this mean for the rest of the season?  As the focus and attention is focused in on the Lakers and their playoff race for homecourt, people will care less about the Clippers.  

Teams in tight playoff races will most likely deliver the worst beatings to the Clippers.  Teams either clearly in or clearly out would seem to take the Clippers most seriously.  Younger teams will try harder than older teams (OKC).  

Looking specifically at their schedule, they have a six game trip.  I predict that two early wins would mean the would lose the rest of their games.  They also play at Boston.  Two factors here:  revenge game for Boston (they lost at LA a few weeks ago) at home, and a tight playoff race.  Boston doesn't let up and their bench is big, strong, and plays extremely hard.  This could be a thirty to forty point loss.  

They also host Cleveland and play at Denver twice.  These two games will probably be one bad loss and one close game.  If first game is close, second will be very bad, likely.  Also, if the Clippers win the first one, they would almost certainly lose the second one.  

They also host Portland and play at Utah.  Those two games could be ugly.  Portland is young and in a playoff race, but it is away.  So that will hurt. However, it is at the end of the season so I don't know how full the stadium will be.  The game at Utah will likely feature Utah in a very tight race for the highest playoff seeding possible.  They are fresh (because of injuries and players finally returning) so they could give a pounding to LA.

I'll have to watch the Clippers as the season finishes to see if these predictions are right.

Two losses, one cause?

Recently the Lakers and Boston both lost games.  

The Celtics lost 93-91 at the Clippers.

Selected quotes:"I thought we played slow all night, we pouted all night, we just thought we could show up and win a game -- and we didn't. I just didn't think we played with the type of spirit we played with on this entire trip.- Coach Doc Rivers.  

"We looked at their record, and not at their personnel."

The Clippers also had guard Baron Davis back, a player known to play up to the level of his competition...or down, as the case may be.  

The Lakers lost 90-79 at the Denver Nuggets.  

The Lakers, who brought the NBA's best record (48-10) into town when they checked into their hotel at 4 a.m., 

"That was a garbage game, no doubt about it," Lakers coach Phil Jackson said. "I wish we could repay the fans some money for that game. Neither team played very well, but they played better than us."

"Tonight, we [played] as active and as intelligent of a defensive game as I think we've played all year long or maybe ever since I've been here," Karl said. "We challenged a lot of shots, it was a tremendously active defensive game."

Mix this "with our offensive skills, we can be great," Karl said. "This is a playoff type of game for us. I'm not sure they played it that way, but it's going to be a good night and a good sunrise."

Bryant said this was the perfect storm of a fatigued team facing a fired-up team on little rest with little room for error.

"We've got a totally different team, a totally different mind-set."

One he hopes will finally lead to his initial playoff success after five straight first-round flame-outs.

Four nights after suffering a 38-point blowout by Boston at the Pepsi Center, the Nuggets hung tough with the Lakers, leading 66-63 after three quarters before pulling away.

"We really looked forward to playing another team like this after that Boston massacre," Billups said. "They came into town with the best record, best team in basketball, it was a great opportunity for us."

This last quote is especially important.  It shows that after getting embarassed, the Nuggets, a division leader, saw the Lakers as an immediate chance to take on another highpowered team.  And they came out popping while the Lakers were flat.  

Its a quality team rebounding after a bad loss.

Responding to injuries in the NBA

Good teams in the NBA respond to an injury or trade of a key player by playing better.

Sound ridiculous?  Maybe better is the wrong word; harder is a better choice.  

Last night the Hornets, after trading (or so they thought) their 26 year old center Tyson Chandler to the Thunder, exploded over the Magic for a 117-85.  When Andrew Bynum went down,  Kobe exploded for 61 points at Madison Square Garden.  

When the Suns replaced their coach with Alvin Gentry, they scored 140 points in regulation on back-to-back nights against the same team.   Thats incredible.  The clippers knew it was coming the next night.  They played at home.  Home court gave the Clippers an additional twenty points against the Suns...but they still lost by twenty.  

These are professional athletes.  They are all very skilled.  Often the only difference in performances night-to-night is intensity and effort.  Look at the Celtics.  They brought together a collection of good players from perennial losing teams.  And they won the championship with a focus on defensive effort and sustained superior effort.  

Certain factors trigger superior effort in players; it is almost a pavlovian response.  When the Hornets lost their center and everyone said their championship hopes were dashed, they played their hearts out.  But now Tyson Chandler is back.  The trade was cancelled because he failed a physical. 

So what will happen?  The Hornets are likely to play flat in one or two of the upcoming games and have the favor returned by an opposing team.