The Lakers and Celtics are in the Finals

To prepare for the Finals, which start tomorrow, I'm going to do a player by player comparison to determine which team has the advantage in the series.

Home Court: advantage goes to the Lakers. However, both are veteran teams, and both played well on the road. So I'd have to say that I doubt home court advantage will be a big factor in this series.

Point Guard: Rajon Rondo vs. Derek Fisher. Rajon has had some monster games this season and also led his teams in WP. Derek Fisher is 35 and not much of a dribble penetration kind of guy. The Celtics have a huge advantage in Rondo v Fisher.

Shooting Guard: Kobe Bryant vs. Ray Allen. Obviously, Kobe is Kobe, skilled at everything, and performing really well now that his knee is in better shape. The Celtics have Ray Allen, who is adept at moving without the ball, rolling around multiple screens, and hitting open shots. The problem for the Lakers is that it forces Kobe to spend energy on defense chasing Ray Allen. The problem for the C's is that Ray Allen will probably have to guard Kobe, which is very tough to do.

Small Forward: Paul Pierce versus Ron Artest. PP is a very good player, especially on offense. Ron Artest is a good player, especially on defense. Its a situation of one players strengths going against anothers strengths, which is rare. Most players make it to the NBA based on offense. Ron Artest was brought to the Lakers for defense. Also, Ron Artest has been hitting corners threes very well lately and playing under control. So while the Cs have the advantage when it comes to their best player, its not as much of one as I'd suspect. Ron Artest is happy to play like a pitbull all game against Ron Artest and nothing else.

Power Forward: Keven Garnett versus Pau Gasol. Advantage Lakers. With all due respect to KG and what he's done over the years, Pau is better. Hes much better on offense. However, same situation as the last position. Pau is great on offense, KG is great on defense. Tireless, relentess defense. Also, KG has always been a good outside shooter and has an array of post moves. Over the course of a season, Pau is better. A seven game series? Not as sure. Advantage Lakers, but not a big one.

Center: Two guys who are there for their defense, defending each other. Great. I expect 2.45 ppg for each player! Ha, we'll see. Between Kendrick Perkins technical foul trouble and Bynums knee problems, I expect both players to miss significant playing time this series. Advantage: No one.

6th Man: Lamar Odom vs. Glen Davis/Rasheed Wallace. Neither Cs sub has the combination of mobility and strength to match Lamar. He is also rebounding very well (see his 19 rebound performance against the Suns). Davis and Wallace both have their strengths, also Wallace has had back problems and is as likely to throw up a clunker of a game as he is a good game. Wallace does seem dialed in and focused, however. Advantage Lakers.

Bench: Both benches are erratic. The Lakers PGs may be able to help with Rajon Rondo ( Shannon Brown and Farmar) but beyond that, its a toss up as to which team's bench will have a good game and which one won't. Whoever blinks first losses the championship.

Coaches: Both veterans, both experienced. Doc Rivers had a reputation for being overmatched and incompetent before the Big 3 arrived, and he is now hailed as an amazing coach. Probably somewhere in between. Jackson's main coaching strategy has been to have Jordan, Pippen, Rodman, Shaq, Kobe, and now Gasol, as his players. I thought Stan Van Gundy did a better coaching job last year in the Finals.

Prediction? I don't know.

NBA Finals final thoughts and questions

The Lakers won the championship in five games and Kobe Bryant was named Finals MVP. Its pretty impressive what he has done the last two years: a deep playoff run in 2008, regular season MVP, Olympic Gold Medal play during the 2008 summer, another great season in 2009, followed by a playoff run culminating in a championship. And he apparently hasn't missed a single game due to injury.

Thats damn impressive for a thirty year old.

But there are more things going on. The questions this blog has been trying to answer remain the same. When do teams take a night off? Why did the Lakers lock it on and become one of the elite teams that wins a championship on the road? Did it have something to do with the Pacers/Lakers Game 5 debacle nine years ago?

Can a game nine years ago effect a game played now?

Why did the Magic give up? The fight they showed to rally from big deficits against Cleveland was not seen against LA. Was it just emotion or did they try and get thwarted by LA? When Kobe grabbed Dwight Howard and pulled him to the ground to stop his dunk attempt, was that the play of the series?

Lakers Defense Key to Champsionship

These NBA Finals have been quite unusual through four games. The first game was a complete blowout by the Lakers. The second game the Orlando Magic were winning but the Lakers tied it to go into overtime; in overtime they dominated and won. Game three the Magic set an NBA Finals record with 62.5% shooting but barely won. Game four Orlando led late but the Lakers tied at the buzzer. In overtime, the Lakers dominated again.

We've seen two overtime periods. Two five minute stretches with the teams starting tied and beginning with a center court jump ball. And both times the Lakers have dominated the OT.

The Lakers won OT1 by a score of 13-8 and OT2 by a score of 12-4. The score of OT1 looks close but if not for a meaningless three at the end by the Magic it would have been much worse.

And the thing I remember most is how stifling the Lakers defense has been in the overtime periods. It wasn't pretty getting to OT (the Lakers needed big rallies and some missed free throws) but one certainly has to credit their defense for the championship. Their pressure offense hasn't been to amazing, essentially letting Kobe play 1-5. But their defense in OT has been incredible. They let the Magic get four points in five minutes of play AT HOME. Thats amazing.

Also their fourth quarter rallies wouldn't have been possible without great defense. They simply have the ability to lock down the Magic when they want to. They played tough defense in Game 1 and held the Orlando Magic to 29.9% shooting for the game. That is spirited defense.

Everyone focuses on the margin of victory and 100 points scored by LA. But 100 points isn't that many points at all. They put 119 on Denver in game 6. Thats an offensive outburst. But 100 points?

Its the Defense.

I don't think they will win game 5 simply because the defensive effort won't be there. Game 6, however, should see the Lakers energized and locking down the Magic. The spread for game five is Magic by three.

What will the spread be for game 6?

Lakers Magic Game 4

I was thinking about how well the Magic had to shoot (62.5 percent, an NBA Finals Record) to eke out a win in Game 3. I also thought about how a player who starts shooting well will struggle later in the game (and shoot more shots), and think that it will happen on a team wide level for this game.

Plus, the Lakers are a better team anyways.

And they just lost, so the onus is on them.

So thats my prediction: Magic have a bad night shooting, Lakers win handily.

Kobe was outplayed by Hedo Turkoglu

Kobe was outplayed at the end of regulation.  He had his shot blocked from behind and stolen by Hedo.  Then Hedo made a great pass to Courtney Lee but it was missed .  Also Kobe passed up open teammates to take the shot.  It was a bad ending and the Lakers are truly lucky to be up 2-0.  

Its too bad Jameer Nelson isn't playing at full speed as he would definitely give the Lakers problems.  

Halftime thoughts on Game 2

My general prediction for games this series is: Lakers Win, Lakers Win, Magic Win, Lakers Win, Magic Win, Lakers Win.  

Jeff Van Gundy is a very sharp commentator.  He had a smart comment about something which I can't remember!  Haha, I guess that means I'm dumb.  

I think he was mentioning that you have to have team-mentality when coming off the bench.  You can't as a player complain about rhythm or feel, and he contrasted Rafer Alston to Shannon Brown.  

I'd really like to do some analysis on the past ten years of NBA playoff series' and the patterns that they took.  

Also I thought about my Martingale-Expectation system and didn't learn what I was hoping to prove, but it did show a strong correlation between season to season total wins improvement and percentage of spreads covered.  

Also the Cavs had the highest winning percentage and were the hardest working and biggest hustling team.  The Clippers, despite having talented players, were terrible against the spread because of poor effort.  

So I learned from that research that one should bet on whichever team is trying harder.  

Lakers Magic Preview

My 3/5 method used to preview the Finals:

Point Guard:  Alston slightly better (approx. tie?)

Shooting Guard:  Kobe better than Courtney Lee

Shooting Forward: Turkoglu better than Ariza

Power Forward: Gasol better than Rashard Lewis

Center: Howard better than Bynum

6th Man: Odom better than Pietrus

So Lakers win 3-2 with one tie.  Coach?  Van Gundy better than Jackson.

I think whoever wins the first game will win the series.  It will force the other team to adjust.  

There are a bunch of mismatches on the offensive/defensive ends.  Its about who can force the other team to adjust.  I.e. who can outscore the other and force the other team to make adjustments and get out of their preferred set.