Ariza/Artest and three point efficiency

One thing I’d be curious about with the Ariza/Artest swap is if Ariza can remain as productive when not playing with Kobe and Gasol or players of their caliber. I recall from the playoff run that Ariza had a lot of open threes. I mean it seemed like thats all he was shooting.

So he was very productive but I don’t know if he was doing it with defenses focusing on him or he was getting opportunities because he was playing alongside greatness.

And Artest is definitely older and will not be playing as well or efficiently. But on the Lakers he won’t be the focal point of the offense so depending on how he adjusts his efficiency will either go up (taking advantage of Kobe and Gasol) or decrease if he tries to maintain his previous levels and jacks up shots when he does touch to ball to make up for his decreased touches in general.

All this reminds me of what I read on Forum Blue and Gold, a Lakers blog, which talked about how a lot of players saw their PER increase when playing alongside Kobe. And that is in part because Kobe pushes everyone so much and also in part because his success in one-on-one situations leads him to be double teamed which leads to opportunities for his teammates that are easier to deal with.

Logically it is easier to deal with a defender who is rotating to you on transition and may be out of position (i.e. SG guarding a SF) than one's assigned defender who is locked in and waiting for you to get the ball.

I also read a great but complicated post about three point shooting efficiency, controlled for different positions, corner three versus long three percentage, and age of player.

And the peak shooting age is 29 years old and shooting the corner three. Corner threes are made 10% of the time more than top of the key threes. Interesting information. So I still have four years left till my peak!

Lakers/Rockets game 5 and Streak update

Game 5 of the Lakers/Rockets series was a complete blowout.  The final margin was forty points.  The spread was twelve.  So that is a major, major difference.  And I thought that spread was high but my quick analysis was that it would be a close game.  Boy was I wrong.  I wonder a few things.  Namely, what is home court advantage worth?  These two games occured on different home courts; Houston blew out LA in game 4 only to fly to LA and get blown out over there.  

What happened?  

Well the Yao Ming injury happened, which forced Houston into a smaller lineup and totally changed their style of play.  They also had the home crowd and played extremely motivated, worried about the loss of Yao Ming.  Conversely, the Lakers seemed to think the series was over (it is) and didn't come out with any passion and intensity.  

So those two factors: the energy and effort disparity, plus Houston playing a style that was completely different and unexpected from what the Lakers had seen and prepared for, combined to make them lose the game.  

Also, games happen quickly.  That was one thing that I noticed; there aren't chances for many major in-game adjustments.  If the other team is doing something totally different than expected it can really throw a team off.  The Lakers were ready to play a methodical, slowed-down game tempo;  and that just never happened.  Houston was ready to play fast, had early success, and played even faster, urged on by the home crowd.  

Streak update:  record is 3-3.  I lost my third pick, Orlando to beat Boston, and then lost two random picks trying to get a win so I could start a new streak.  Finally got it on the Dodgers-Phillies game today.  And I don't think its possible to pick 27 baseball games in a row.  

Streak for the Cash

I watched the Lakers/Rockets game yesterday, and Lakers just gave the game away.  From the first possession to the last possession, it really seemed like no one gave a crap.  It was astonishing.  And I don't think they will win the championship.  They almost looked bored with the game.  I've never seen anything like it.  And I haven't spent that much time watching games this season or over the course of my life, but it was really, really bad.  

Contrasted to the Celtics last season in the finals, who were also leading a series 2-1, who were also down by about 20 at half time, and who came roaring back to seal the series with a 3-1 lead.  That was amazing to see the difference.

Also, I'm starting to play the "streak for the cash" on ESPN.  Its a lot of fun.  This is a great way to practice making picks and work on my theories that is free with a small chance at reward. 

And I noticed that the crowd is usually wrong, so no surprise there.  I would have picked Rashard Lewis to outscore Ray Allen (he did) but I picked a minute too late so I randomly picked the Red Sox to beat Tampa Bay at home to start my streak out.  And they won!  So hurray for that!

Thoughts on Yao Ming's injury and the next game

This is so far shaping up to be a classic motivational game.  A star player is injured for the home team.  The team is down and struggling in the playoffs.  

The other team has a strong offense and mediocre defense.  

And everyone thinks that because the star is injured the series is over.  And it probably is.  

But the next game?  The home team has started ferociously and is winning by 16.  It hasn't been close the entire game.