Preseason #1 in College Football

Tomorrow the preseason polls come out. And with that we have the first cause of cognitive biases and perception biases. As the season approaches, writers will write articles supporting the top teams and talking them up and poo-pooing the lower ranked teams. And so the cycle of a small decision by a coach to pick one team over another in a meaningless poll will feed expectations and support poorly formed opinions which will snowball over the coming weeks until the top teams have become once-a-decade goliaths set on a collision course.

If those teams make it six weeks it will turn into a once-a-century battle royale the likes of which we haven't seen since, well, a few years ago.

And a quick prediction I have relates to what I read about OU. Sam Bradford came back after winning a Heisman trophy last year. However, he has lost four starting offensive lineman. And that will hurt him significantly. I simply don't believe that the line will be as good and that will lead to a worse offensive performance on his part and a greater possibility of injury.

Sports Betting Scandal Update!

I just read the following article on ESPN,  and I will summarize the main points for my lazy readers.

The article is alleging that former Toledo University football and basketball players were recruited into a point-shaving scheme by some local businessmen-turned-crooks.  The amounts bet were interesting and I've listed them below.  

The games involving Toledo

The indictment alleges Ghazi [Gary] Manni and Mitchell Karam used interstate telephone facilities to place bets knowing the games were fixed, including these Toledo basketball games:
• 11/20/05: $42,000 vs. South Carolina
• 11/27/05: $10,000 vs. SMU
• 12/3/05: $10,000 vs. Northern Illinois
• 12/17/05: $44,000 vs. St. Bonaventure
• 12/21/05: $21,000 vs. East Carolina
• 1/4/06: $10,000 vs. Kent State
• 1/7/06: $15,000 vs. Akron
• 1/15/06: $17,000 vs. Bowling Green
• 1/18/06: $21,000 vs. Miami [Ohio]
• 1/24/06: $40,000 vs. Northern Illinois
• 2/1/06: $40,000 vs. Western Michigan
• 2/4/06: $20,500 vs. Central Michigan
• 2/7/06: $20,000 vs. Kent State
• 2/18/06: $30,000 vs. Detroit Mercy
• 11/20/06: $25,000 vs. Va. Commonwealth
• 12/2/06: $21,000 vs. Vanderbilt
• 12/19/06: $21,000 vs. Detroit Mercy

This is a good amount of money.  I'd be very curious to know their winning percentage for that run of games .  The article is interesting as much for what it mentioned as for what it didn't mention.  It didn't mention how many of those bets they won.  But they did bet on roughly 17 games, averaging around $30,000 per game.  If they won 80% of their games, they would have made a profit of roughly $300,000.  Thats a nice profit!

Its too bad the article doesn't go into details of games won or lost.  But I think that if the players are trying to lose a game on purpose then that is definitely possible to win 80% of one's bets.  

Initial Pac-10 research, potential Bias discovered,

Before I forget, the bias that I thought up today is thus: a college football team that plays a majority of its early-schedule games at home will suffer from Home Field Bias.  Essentially, this means that its stats will be inflated because it will have a disproportionate amount of games played at home.  Homefield advantage has been proven to pump up scoring, improve defense, and generally make the team look better than it actually will when it travels.

Now, on to the research results.  I looked at each team in the Pac ten and their points scored in away games and at home.  The results were not surprising, but still important.

For the season

Home team: 2589 points.   Away Team: 2245 points.

A difference of 344 points spread out over 45 games.  That makes it 7.64 points per game!  That is over one touchdown difference per game that you get for playing at home.  In the pros it is a mere three points.  

I also read in Stanford Wong's book Sharp Sports Betting that home field advantage decreases between division rivals.  It would also be interesting to look at inter-conference games.  Perhaps if I picked another conference, say the Mountain West Conference, and also compared the inter-conference games between the two, to look at home field advantage in another conference and also the difference in inter-conference games compared to in-conference games.  

Also, if the implications of this research are correct, then the younger the team, the bigger the discrepancy between homefield advantage and away disadvantage.  Also, my data may be skewed because of certain "neutral" games that are technically listed as home/away, like USC/UCLA.  These rivalry games may have stadiums that are split.  

Possibly maximized when a young team is a road favorite over a home team with more experienced players.  

BCS Championship Game Analysis part 2

I've been continuing to think the BCS national championship game and the hype leading up to it.  

The over/under was seventy points and I'm beginning to think that it was ridiculously high for the game.  

To score seventy points in the game, each team would have to score 35 points (average).  The most the gators gave up all season was 31; the second most was 21.

To score so many points (like the 49 they hung on the Georgia Bulldogs, the 56 they hung on South Carolina) you have to not just win, but dominate both sides of the ball.  In the South Carolina game Florida jumped out to a quick 21 point lead.  It took them FOUR OFFENSIVE PLAYS and went for a total of 31 YARDS!  

They returned a pick for a score, a pick to the 1 yard line, and recovered a turnover at the twenty six yard line and then scored one pass later.  

So to rack up so many points you have to have an effective offense (the Gators had a drive of one play, 80 yards rushing for a score) and a dominant defense that not only stops the other team, but takes the ball away to get massive gains in field position.  

Urban Meyer is notorious for emphasizing field position and winning the field position battle.  That means getting maximum yards on kick returns and kickoffs, punts and punt returns, and pinning the opponent back.  Well if you can execute and win those battles but force turnovers, you can score a ton of points, more than is the true difference in skill just because you have such better opportunities.  

OU and Bob Stoops I'm sure do the same thing when they decimated Texas Tech.  

But when two teams like that play each other then everything cancels out.  There is no huge advantage in field position for one team over the other.  No team is getting a big field position advantage and also forcing their opponents into three and outs.  

So why would it be high scoring??

Home Field Advantage in College Football

Just read some of JR Miller's book about beating the Pro Football Pointspread. Football is football is football, and it got me thinking about college football and its relevance to today's topic: home field advantage.

Some JR Miller quotes:
"There are actually wide differences in home field advantages from team to team for extended periods of time" (2-4).

"There is a general tendency for teams to play better on home turf" (2-4).

"For a three year period ending in the early '90s, the Washington Redskins...actually performed 3 points worse at home than on the road" (2-4).

In college football I'm sure the effect is magnified. The players are younger, more emotional, less confident, and less professional (on average) than their professional counterparts.

So how could this study be done and its effects measured?

Well one could look at the difference in average score between home and road, difference in average margin of victory or defeat, and also look at how visitors do at a certain stadium compared to the road and overall average.

The problem of course is not all college teams are made equal. Ohio State's stadium will have given up fewer points than most teams because they traditionally emphasize defense and ball control.

Over the years that will have given them a skewed measurement of how much effect their stadium has because they also have above average defenses. So one would have to look at how opponents do in a given season against common opponents.

This is actually a very tricky question because teams have certain identities over the years. One could look at the difference between consecutive years playing Ohio State on the road or at home to get an idea of the difference that stadiums and home field advantage have.

Or if teams play twice in one season, looking at the difference in scores. Unfortunately I'm dealing with something that has high variability over the course of a season(injuries) and between seasons (player turnover and graduation) and very few instances.

I could look at various statistical measures such as a t-value (for average variability around an unknown value). But that would be getting very complicated very fast.

Lastly, the effect could be measured for young teams (freshman, sophomores) versus teams that are experienced/older (juniors, seniors). Also comparing seasons started per team. I'd think that more experienced teams would perform better.

Also, a three year starter would have played at Ohio State, then hosted them his junior year, and then go back again his senior year to the horseshoe. So that would be a real advantage because he'd already have played their once and seen the kind of debacle he was walking into.

Navy's Inherent Advantage or "economic moat"

Does the Naval Academy's football team have an inherent advantage?  I think so.

In 2000 they became an independent and have since had a serious strategic advantage over their opponents. 

Conference wins and losses are much more important than out-of-conference losses.  A team can have several out-of-conference losses and still win their conference, but more than one or two conference losses all but dooms a team from achieving their goals and any recognition outside the conference.

Navy runs an unusual offense in the form of the triple option, a running based attack and they rarely throw more than 5 or 6 passes a game.  It requires more practice and game-planning to teach linebackers and corners the new assignments and how to "stay-at-home" in a zone rather than just pursuing the ball as they usually do.  

But a loss to Navy is not nearly as bad for the opponents because they are out-of-conference.  Hence, less game planning, less emphasis in practice, and less year-to-year focus because they are less likely to repeat against opponents more than two or three games.  

Why would a coach spend more than a few practices preparing against Navy when he is more important offenses and intra-conference opponents coming up?

Well, I don't think he would.  And that's why I think Navy has an inherent advantage in college football by being an independent.

Book Review: Urban's Way Part 1

Urban's Way is a very interesting book about Urban Meyer, the coach of the Florida Gator's football team.  He has been there four seasons and already won a national championship and will soon be competing for another one.  

Not suprisingly for someone as educated and successful as him, he is disciplined and has a very well considered approach to the game.  It includes breaking up the season into portions with individual goals, bowl preparation into segments, and counting down the number of days in the season.  A hundred and seven days is the offical count.  

Here is a summary of part one of the book:  Urban Meyer considers himself "one part football coach and one part Father Flanagan, the priest of Boys Town" (p 22.)

The four staples of Urbans program are:

1) Play great defense

2) Turnovers (all coaches are requried to teach ball security the same way)

3) Score in the red zone

4) Win the kicking game

They constantly preach the phrase "four to six seconds of relentless effort"

The core values of the Gator team are:

1) Honesty

2) Respect of Women

3) No stealing

4) No drugs

5) No weapons

"Four and five-star recruits are the lifeblood for the 'culture of winning' " (p 46). 

"he followed [John Wooden's] advice that players shouldn't be treated equally, but rather rewarded for how they contributed to the team" (p 94).  They have the Champions Club to reinforce that those who contribute and invest in the team are rewarded with privileges.  

He also uses "battlefield promotions" by awarding scholarships to people who excel in practice on the spot.  Essentially, a really bad ass play can earn you a scholarship.  

Final thoughts on the game

I listened to the announcers dissect various plays and coverage schemes and was very impressed with the depth and complexity of thought that goes into the Florida plays. They have motions that are designed to get mismatches between their receivers and the defense's players. Receivers vs. safetys. Corners versus running backs.

Very interesting to think of all the things that can happen out there and either Florida's coaches are phenomenal or Tebow really understands the purpose and goal of all the motion and movement and is able to manipulate it to get what he wants. Probably the latter.

Alabama-Florida game

Well the Alabama-Florida SEC championship game was quite a game. It featured two of the best teams in football and two of the best coaches in the college game right now.

In fact, I'd list the top three coaches in college right now, in no particular order: Jim Tressell, Urban Meyer, and Nick Saban.

Of course, I don't even know all the coaches in college football so this is definitely not a complete list. I like these coaches because they seem to embody professionalism, focus, attention to detail, and passion. A lot of coaches have some of these qualities but I think these three coaches have them all.

The Gators eventually covered the spread, which surprised me. I think they were fortunate to do that, but the game was hard fought on both sides. It looked like Alabama was going to pull it out after a dominant third quarter. Finally Florida was driving when Alabama had a three point lead and they were stopped on third down; unfortunately a facemask call was called on an Alabama linebacker. Fifteen yards and a first down.

Watching the replay it didn't look like he actually grabbed his facemask, rather his collar and the runner naturally jerked his head towards the shoulder he was being pulled from.

Alabama did stop the Gators run game though, and held Tebow in check. The x-factor was the Gators passing, and whenever they were forced with third down and long Tebow was able to pull out a great throw to a receiver and get the big gain. Very impressive.

Really the difference in the game was Tebow's clutch passing.

Nick Saban vs. Urban Meyer

This Saturday two of the top coaches in the league will bring their teams to meet in the SEC championship game. Alabama (11-0) versus Florida (10-1??).

Florida is a ten point favorite.  And honestly, I think that is far too high. The logic behind the game is that Florida has a super-speedy offense with lots of tricks that will allow it to run rampant during the game. Their special teams is very good and they should have good field position to start. And their defense is also very strong.

Alabama has a very physical defense and a monster of a Nose Tackle. Their offense is solid, with a great wide receiver in Julie Jones. The rest of their team is good but generally unremarkable.

So who will win? I honestly haven't watched enough games to have a valid opinion.

But I DO know that a good defense will beat a good offense. The only question is whether Alabama's offense is good enough to put up points against Florida's defense. Also, I know that Alabama's nose tackle, who has a Kingly body, will clog up the middle and certainly make it challenging for Florida to have success running the ball. Tim Tebow likes to run straight up the middle. But I doubt he will have much success running against an NFL caliber nose tackle.

The game is always won and lost at the line of scrimmage. It doesn't matter how fast your running backs are if there is a three hundred man bursting through the line of scrimmage every damn play.

So I wouldn't expect them to have a lot of success running the ball. It should be a low scoring affair.

My guess is that Alabama will cover the spread. Who will win will come down to the bounce of the football.

Rich Rodriguez and Michigan

Is the reason Rich Rodriguez is struggling so much because he has a system developed in West Virginia and he is trying to force Michigan to adapt to it? Could it be that his high speed, cutting, juking, sprinting offensive system isn't working because its too damn cold?

Now that I think about it, his team was doing well last year....until they playing in late November at Pitt...which was quite a cold game, and they scored only nine points. Interesting

The effect of last months weather: The butterfly effect

A theory I've been developing with regards to football performances is one of the weather. It has long been known that warm-weather dome teams suffer in the NFL when playing post-season games in the frigid cold. The snow, the freezing rain, the sub-zero temperatures effect their performances in ways that aren't easily quantified, but affect the outcome of the game.

Yet this topic is never discussed in college football. The college football scene is broken up into conferences, each conference representing a geographic area with roughly similiar climes. The Pac-1o and SEC have different weather than the Big Ten, as the biggest contrast.

But when one looks at bowl game performances, especially most recently, the Big Ten has been struggling playing warm weather teams in warm weather stadiums. Especially in deep winter, when the teams have been practicing in the cold and fly down for a bowl game.

OSU has seemed to lack the explosiveness, speed, and physicality necessary to compete. But when they go north and fight their intra-conference rivals they dominate. OSU is a prime example of the weather phenomenon. Because of their success they have travelled to face top opponents in different environments, different seasons. And as such they are a great example of what happens when good teams play in different environments than that which they practice and live in.

I think that living, practicing, and playing in the cold weather conditions the human body and that conditioning is not conducive to athletic success. But when OSU plays their intraconference opponents the effect is cancelled out, and their coaching, strength and recruiting advantages play out and they win. But when they have to play their peers (USC, LSU, Florida, Texas) in the warm weather they can struggle.

This incremental effect on their muscles, their stretching, their balance (mud vs. turf), etc., amplifies over time to create this major difference. Thats why it is amazing OSU beat Miami back in '01.

I hope OSU beats Michigan State

I really hope Ohio State beats Michigan State this week. It will solidify their position as a top team. This in turn will have them as rated closer to Penn State, which will make the point spread closer.

Which will make it easier for Penn State to cover the point spread against OSU. Which they should do. Easily. Make no mistake: Penn State is the best team in the Big Ten by a big margin. Simply look at the scores they have been putting up. That is what a top team does. And OSU, Michigan, etc., don't have the offense to keep up with them.

Compared to the OU-Texas game, OU put up 35 points on a good Texas team, but once their linebacker when out with an ACL injury they couldn't hold Texas, which scored 45.

But who in the Big Ten will challenge Penn State? No one that I can see. They beat a good Illinois team which has played a very tough schedule.

Anyways my hope is that Ohio State wins to set up an easy pick for Penn State. Don't forget OSU's quarterback was playing highschoolers a year ago.

Cognitive Biases: Thinking Ohio State is a top team despite their narrow wins and pathetic scores.