Wages of Wins

I just finished reading Wages of Wins, by David Berri. The book was a birthday gift and after reading the other books I was given, it was time to crack open Wages of Wins. I've followed his blog for some time and really enjoy the posts and the insights he gives. It was time to read the book and I did.

I don't want to simply summarize the book or give chapter by chapter run down. Instead I'll list a few key points and also extrapolate a bit.

Scoring in the NBA is over valued with respect to paychecks and wins. High volume shooters who score hurt there team by using up so many shots and converting at a low percentage. Rebounding, defense, and assists are undervalue with respect to winning and pay.

This I already knew from his blogging. There is a heavy emphasis on regression analysis and multiple season data collection to come to conclusions. This makes sense. The more data, the more accurate the conclusions can be.

It also got me thinking about the proper place of anecdotal evidence. When I think of teams losing a lineman in football, especially a star lineman, and then losing, is there a way to properly study this? What about occurrences that are rare and so are essentially anecdotal? What about so-called black swans? This data do not necessarily lend themselves to the type of analysis that David Berri does. I noticed a difference between the types of analysis done; while I don't have the knowledge, database, or computing power to do the analysis he does, this blog can be more focused on anecdotal analysis and trying to distill low-frequency data analysis from the mountain of sports data being collected.

I don't have the means to do what David Berri does; but anyone can do what Nicolas Nassim Taleb does.

Rah!

Wins Produced in the NBA

I was reading the recent posts at Wages of Win.  That is a very informative website and I recommend it for anyone who wants to learn more about basketball and basketball analysis. 

These last two days I was in Half Moon Bay at a bed and breakfast.  In the mornings I would read the sports section of the newspaper and was surprised at how limited the coverage was and how uninformed it was.  

The newspaper summarizes the game.  And thats it.

Wages of Wins on the other hand, discusses what happened and how it happened.  That is very important and the statistics that they produce help one understand what is happening in the league throughout the season.  

The statistic wins produced measures how helpful someone is at making his team win.  It doesn't measure how easily he can rain in thirty foot shots, if he can tomahawk jam while driving the lane, or if he can get ten steals a game.  

It measures the "whole player" and if what he is doing on the court helps his team win.  

Wins produced measures the importance of playing good defense, getting offensive rebounds, shooting efficiency, drawing fouls, not fouling, etc.  

Its really a wonderful statistic.  While there is debate over which players are most skilled, fastest, best on-ball defenders, or have the highest combination of all skills possible in the NBA, there is little doubt about who is producing the most wins.  

A good analogy is me playing basketball.  I'm tall (6'4") and can't dribble well or shoot well.  But because of wages of wins, I focus on rebounding, shooting easy shots, and not making mistakes.  

After all, not making a mistake is as valuable as making a good play.  It allows someone else to try to make a play.  

It also clarifies who the Least Productive Players are.  Read this article here.   It is very informative.  You will find a certain type of player here.  The high volume shooter who doesn't play defense very well.  Its really an interesting list of players.  And some of them make MILLIONS of dollars.