Insights in Economics and Sports

A couple of key concepts

2011-10-26T19:40:00.000-04:00

A couple of concepts that have been rattling around in my head is the idea of a "non-working owner". How can a person who has never worked for a company and never invested any money be entitled to a portion of the profits?

That is the definition of a non-working owner or "NWO".

The "stockholders" as these are known, then pressure to the CEO to increase revenue and depress expenses (read: wages) to maximize their dividend and stock price (unworked for profit).

Steve Jobs has died, but will Apple live forever?

2011-10-26T13:23:00.000-04:00

Steve Jobs passed away on October 5th, 2011. His passing deeply affected many people, myself among them. But many years before this, Steve Jobs said that Death is a natural part of Life and should not be feared; nay, we should contemplate it every day and live our lives in harmony with the knowledge that we will one day die.

He concludes that Death is just and proper, as it clears out the old to make room for the new and that every young person eventually becomes old, and is then moved aside to make room for the "new" new people. Although Steve Jobs passed away, the company he founded is thriving robustly and is by some measures the largest company in the world with a brand positioning at the forefront of technology and communication.

Apple, with a market capitalization of over $400 Billion dollars and thousands of patents, will surely survive for a while. One year? Ten years? 100 years? If it lives 100 years from today, it will live longer than me. Even if it eventually goes bankrupt, some portion of its assets/patents/human talent will be bought up by another company, consumed and assimilated.

It is likely that Apple, Steve Jobs creation, will be functionally immortal. It will never die.

It defies the natural cycle of life and death that Steve Jobs embraced psychologically. And that is not a good thing.

Allen Iverson vs. Kobe Bryant

2011-10-02T23:43:00.000-04:00

There is a great video on Youtube of Allen Iverson saying he doesn't understand how he could make his teammates better by practice. What matters is games. His presence on practice doesn't effect what his teammates work on or develop.

Contrast that with Kobe Bryant, who said he thinks the only reason they didn't win the championship in the 2010-2011 NBA season was that he wasn't able to practice with the team and keep the intensity level high. He wasn't able to "crack heads together" to get people up to the level they need to be at.

Allen Iverson: 0 Championships
Kobe Bryant: 5 Championships

NFL Draft Remix by DJ Steve Porter

2011-09-30T13:17:00.000-04:00

I've been listening to an awesome draft remix by DJ Steve Porter, which you can find here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7i624aWIIwI

On of my favorite parts is 0:43 part, where everyone is chanting J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS, and then when repeated, the JETS chorus is replaced by a bullhorn timed to sound just like JETS. It adds a nice feeling of chaos to the chant, similar to the Matrix theme song.

Amazing Bears Trick Play

2011-09-26T00:50:00.000-04:00

I watched an amazing trick punt return by the Bears, where Devin Hester ran left to return a punt, when actually the ball was kicked to his right, and another Bears player was running back and caught it over his shoulder, then started returning it for the touchdown. It worked brilliantly. I also saw that Hester (the Decoy) ran left towards his own sideline, and the punt was towards the Packers sideline. This was because if Devin Hester was faking towards the Packers side, the players on the Packers sideline would clearly see what was happening and yell to their teammates on the field. Instead, all the Packers players were fifty yards away from their teammates on the other side of the field.

Amazing.

Chris Bosh is already over the NBA finals...and thats a bad thing

2011-09-04T14:52:00.000-04:00

Chris Bosh said in a recent interview that he was over the NBA Finals loss and was ready to move on. That is the response of an emotionally mature person with a large world view and a good perspective. After all, its just sports and his self-actualization as a player.

But its bad news for the Miami Heat. It means they'll be getting the same Chris Bosh they had last year, except a year older and a year closer to retirement. He won't have been lifting all summer, upset over the way things ended like a Michael Jordan or Larry Bird type would have been. He hasn't been pushed all summer by the humiliating defeat he experienced.

After all, it is emotion which separates people out. I get the feel that if Chris Bosh were 6'2" instead of 6'10", he wouldn't even be in the NBA. A guy like Kevin Garnett or Chris Paul would be in the NBA no matter what height they are.

The Romney Campaign

2011-08-30T17:20:00.000-04:00

I just read a very interesting article on the Romney campaign and their recent attacks on Governor Perry from Texas. It was a very interesting and well written article on the Huffington Post. The impression I got was that Romney was running a very disciplined, well thought out campaign that was planned in advance with much thought and historical knowledge going in to it. They planned things out based not on what they wanted to happen, but on historically what happens, and they are ready for many occassions.

Will Romney ultimately win the Republican nomination and the Presidency? I don't know. I can't see the future.

But its very interesting to read about a campaign that is essentially the opposite of McCain's campaign.

Romney is a very, very intelligent and educated person. That doesn't mean he's a great politician or can get people "riled up" and to the voting booths, or that he will make a great leaeder, but it means he would do an amazing job as a high level administrator like Secretary of State at the very least.

I'll continue to follow his campaign now that I know more about him.

Ultimately, it comes down to fundraising. Romney has to be very thorough and well-planned to compete with Obama's thorough and well-planned campaign.

Remembering someone's face but not one's name

2011-08-19T12:58:00.001-04:00

I used to know a man who professed that he couldn't remember people's names well, but he always remembered someone's face. And he was so proud of this accomplishment, like he had a supernatural ability to remember them. And being young, I believed him and was impressed.

After reading Moonwalking With Einstein, I understand that humans have evolved to remember people's faces with great clarity, and to be able to detect even the slightest change in expression. Everyone can remember faces, because as humans we've been doing that for thousands and thousands of years. Even before language and names existed, people had to remember faces. It would be critical to early humans survival to know as they approached another human if they had seen them before and what their relationship was. To think you recognize someone, only to have never seen them before, could be deadly. Strangers can be brutal to eachother, but friendships are valued.

My old mentor bragged about his ability, but it was reality an innate gift passed to him by our common ancestors over the millenia preceding us. He no more worked on his ability to remember faces than I worked on my ability to breathe oxygen through the air. We are just born with it.

Its like a fish bragging about how well he can swim through water. Of course he can swim, he's a fish!

Don't Worry About Tiger

2011-08-09T01:39:00.002-04:00

I read that Tiger Woods recently switched putters...in the middle of a tournament. Blaming the putter and not himself is a sign of weakness, something the old Tiger would never do. Prior to the tournament he said that his "goal was to win, as always" and he wouldn't be playing if he didn't think he could win.

That doesn't sound like the Tiger we know and love.

The Problem With Memory

2011-08-08T17:04:00.000-04:00

I picked up a copy of Ender's Game recently at the book store and read the first page again. I couldn't remember any of it, which is a surprise to me because I have read the book previously and have a great memory. I flipped through a few more pages and was reading it again like the first time. Same great author. Same excellent plot. I know the ending, but I could easily re-read the book again and enjoy it just as much, maybe even more so because I will be able to pay closer attention to the plot development and less time surprised by every twist and turn of the plot.

Why is that? Why can I remember the basic outcome and emotions I felt but nothing else from a book I read when I was 16?

The mechanics of the human memory system mean that I don't have a photographic or absolute memory of anything, and memories slowly erode over time, so that a once sharply contoured design becomes a smooth surfaced rock after enough washings.

In many respects, that is what mars the entire human experience. We simply don't have a perfect memory, and memories get distorted over time. Eventually, only the general facts are remembered, or an emotional impression. Nothing else.

The problem of predicting the future is most possible through a keen understanding of human nature. The details of history are soon forgotten even by those who experienced them. Those who did not experience them, how could they possibly be expected to understand the future if they can't even understand the past.

As regards to the financial crisis, I think that an accurate prediction could have been easily made by people with a strong understanding of human nature and human history. Those two are equally intertwined.

Another problem is that human history has no beginning. It is a continuum, with each action echoing down through eternity. The root causes of major actions are never discreetly definable because each of those causes has its own separate causes, which could be said to have made the major action inevitable.

It is a very Tolstoy perspective on human history to believe that everything is virtually inevitable and all the talking heads and political leaders are no more guiders of history as they are the victims of it, the illusion of control something we all share because to admit that we have no control over our environment is a solipsist perspective, which we all (hopefully) grew out of.

Setting Goals

2011-08-07T22:41:00.003-04:00

Goalsetting is an individual activity, a family activity, a group activity, a corporate activity, and a national activity.

The problem is goals often produce undesired, unexpected, and unanticipated results. Look at the mess and cheating scandal in the Washington D.C. school system, where it has been discovered that teachers systematically improved their students standardized test scores by erasing incorrect answers and writing in correct ones. They were threatened with being fired if their students underperformed and not surprisingly, when they discovered they could not raise the test scores fast enough, resorted to cheating.

This shouldn't be a surprise. Anyone who has lived through enough challenges in life knows that people will resort to nearly anything when threatened with the loss of their lives, their possessions, or even their jobs. In fact for many people, those three things are wound up like the Gordian Knot.

So don't be surprised when you set goals for another person and then pressure them to do it, that quality goes down or is faked to get the desired results.

Sometimes pressure doesn't make diamonds, it just gives you crushed coal.

Achieving a hole in one in golf

2011-08-04T13:25:00.000-04:00

I've been golfing for about four years now, and am still waiting on my first hole in one.

A hole in one is dependent on the following number of factors:

1) Total number of par-3 holes played
2) Total number of greens landed
3) Distance that each ball rolls on the green (six inches of roll versus 13 feet of roll)
4) Ability to select the right club (for distance (controlling the y axis))
5) Ability to hit the ball straight and at the pin (controlling the x axis).

Therefore, to increase my chances of getting a hole in one, I need to work on all five factors, although factor two is related to factors 4 and 5 for obvious reasons.

I need to play more short courses, and increase the number of par-3 holes played per round. For example, at Pruneridge it is a nine hole course and six of the holes are par-3s. That is a ratio of 6:3, or 6:9, depending on the metrics.

The shorter the hole, the better chance I have of landing the green.

The more pure the swing I have, (high shot with back swing) the more roll I will get.

The more I can accurately judge the wind and distance of each hole (accounting for pin placement) the better chance I have of landing the green.

And the more I work on my technique, the more I can shoot the ball straight at the pin.

Rah!

Tesla

2011-08-02T12:48:00.000-04:00

I work across the street from Tesla's Fremont factory, and see the enormous factory each morning as I drive to work.

I read a recent report that said:

Morgan Stanley provided color on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA). In a research report published today, Morgan Stanley stressed that the company's outlook will probably remain grim until the launch of its Model S.

In the report, Morgan Stanley states, “Tesla is within one year of its targeted commercial launch of Model S. Until that time, sales volumes and quarterly EPS will likely be poor indicators of future success.”

At the moment, the rating agency has an Overweight rating and a price target of $70 placed on the company's stock. On Monday, TSLA added 2.13% to its value to finish the day at $28.77.

** end of the report.

There are a couple things going on here. Morgan Stanley releases a news report which probably affected the stock price to some degree. Surprisingly, the stock went up 2.13% despite the report of a grim future until the launch of the Model S, so there must be something going on here that I'm not understanding, which is no surprise, because I don't know anything about stock price valuations and the way the world really works.

There is a target price of $70, which is pretty high. Hopefully I can learn more about what these reports mean. True value is found when I can more accurately assess the reality and predict the future than competitors.

Just like the Black Swan, that will likely be painful and require going against conventional wisdom and what everyone else is doing.

The Miami Heat Lose to the Dallas Mavericks

2011-07-11T13:42:00.000-04:00

What an incredible ending to the NBA season. After Game 3 it really looked like the best team in the series was the Miami Heat, but incredibly they choked away the NBA finals and have made LeBron James look like a complete head case. I don't know what was going on with him but he really turned down his aggressiveness and didn't seem confident with anything. It was really strange.

More importantly is the historical view of what happened. It is important to record thoughts during the moment because there is a lot of mental re-writing that occurs going forward. The Miami Heat were ultra close to winning the championship but this could easily be re-written as to why teams without a center don't win championships, etc.

So during the finals my thoughts revolved around the superior defense of the Miami Heat. They seemed to have the lead in every game but their offense stagnated late in the fourth quarter. It devolved in to them just hoisting up long shots because they couldn't pass it inside. There was no interior passing going on. LeBron has long been lambasted for not being willing to post up or to start out in the post. It really shows now. They did the same thing that worked against Chicago, hoisting up long three pointers off the dribble, but now they weren't going in.

live by the three, die by the three.

"Se la guerre"

-Daniel

Miami will win the NBA Finals

2011-06-07T01:40:00.000-04:00

At this point, with Miami up 2-1, and watching the last three games, I'm convinced they will win the NBA finals. They won a tough game on the road, and if it weren't for a melt down in game 2, would be up 3-0.

We'll see what happens as the series unfolds.

The Lakers had a leadership problem

2011-05-26T00:39:00.000-04:00

I've been digesting the Lakers' defeat at the hands of the Mavericks, a team they shouldn't have been swept by, and one common theme is that fact that Kobe didn't practice during the regular season so he wasn't able to keep everyone as sharp and intense as they need to be.

The problem was that he wasn't practicing and thus able to be as intense as need be, but also that he lacked the moral authority to yell at his teammates and really impose discipline on them. Its just a fact of leadership that he has to be "one of the troops" and sometimes even a 5-time champion like Kobe loses credibility when he can't practice. When he gets to receive treatment and lift weights while everyone else is sprinting around, banging bodies and hurting out on the practice court. It adds up and takes a toll on his leadership ability.

All about physicality in the NBA

2011-04-29T17:27:00.000-04:00

This quote from the Hawks center Collins ties in with what I've read elsewhere, but is worth repeating here:

"Just being in better shape," Collins said, "but also coach [Larry] Drew starting me against him. The refs, if you start off the game being physical, it's a difference, than if you come into the game and there's a change in the way that Dwight's being guarded."

Essentially, being physical pays off and allows a team to continue to be physical the entire game.

Re-reading good books

2011-04-28T11:33:00.002-04:00

I'm strongly considering going through the process of re-reading certain books that I've read in the past, mainly because there simply aren't that many great new books coming out during any given year, and many of the ones I've read that are really good have been partially or wholly forgotten by me now. Re-reading would allow me to re-learn some of the text and pick and choose what I want to read without having to read an entire book again.

Media Watch

2011-04-28T11:31:00.000-04:00

The BP oil spill has been renamed the "Deepwater Horizon" oil spill, thus removing the association between BP and the oil spill. The media is now referring to it as the Deepwater Horizon spill, which I think is kind of smarmy.

Mr. Sokol was Berkshire Hathaway's #2 man but has now been accused of illicitly gaining $3M by duping Warren Buffet; the two issues here are 1) why did he feel compelled to try to gain 3M when he already had tens of millions and an amazing job and 2) his lawyer, who called Sokol "a man of uncommon rectitude and probity" has previously defended the would-be assassin of Ronald Reagan; not exactly a great character reference for one's lawyer if the lawyer previously defended RR's attempted assassin.

Poker

2011-03-07T14:59:00.000-05:00

A realization I made with poker is that if I am doing well, I need to keep playing. This sounds obvious but when I played at GardenCity casino I was doing well and after success I decided to "lock in" my earnings and leave. This was great and I did well, but in reality if I am winning then I need to keep playing against the same people and trust that success means I will have further success.

If I am losing, on the other hand, I should leave immediately and cut my losses rather than keep going and trying to make each session a winning one.

Its a bit like the old "taxi-driver" conundrum. If cab drivers set a pre-set goal of earnings each day, then some days they will finish early because there is a lot of business, and other days they will work long hours to make that goal. But the most profitable thing to do is the opposite: quit on slow days, but work long hours on days that are busy because it is the busy days that they can make the most money.

Likewise, if and when I'm doing well at poker is when I need to stay at the table for a few extra hours playing against weaker opponents, but when I am doing poorly and playing against better people, I need to have the awareness to get up and leave and not stay indefinitely.

Laker's loss to Cleveland

2011-02-17T01:05:00.000-05:00

In the words of Umberto Eco, everything is connected to everything. So how do we explain the Laker's loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers?

It ties in to their 60 point beat down of the Cavs earlier this season. The Lakers will have let their guard down.
The Cavaliers will be nervous about it happening again and probably prepare extra hard for them. It is the 7th game of a road trip by the Lakers, and the Cavs are at home.

This is a unique situation and poses an interesting research question: how do teams that suffer huge road blowouts fare against that team the next time they play them at home?

I.e. the NBA embarrassment factor?

NBA All-star game

2011-02-15T18:30:00.002-05:00

I'm picking the EAST to win the NBA All-Star game. This has a lot of similarities to the year the Pistons had four backups on the All-Star team on a team that had lost the Championship the previous year (in a game 7) and were motivated to take on the West.

Also, it is in LA so Kobe/Gasol have a lot of stuff on their minds. Kobe will want to win the game so he can be the obvious MVP of the game but honestly, the Celtics starting line-up plus Dwight Howard or whoever will be better than five random West Stars all gunning together.

Also, Fedor looked a LOT smaller than his opponent in weigh-ins and I didn't think he would do well. Now I'm trying to put my thoughts on my blog BEFORE the game/fight/event.

Cherry-picking Data

2011-02-09T10:41:00.000-05:00

One of the biggest challenges for this blog is avoiding the cherry-picking of data. Am I cherry-picking data? Yes. Most of my examples thus far have been anecdotal. The Steelers lost their Pro-Bowl Center for the super bowl and lost. The Raiders lost their Pro-Bowl center for the Super Bowl back in the early 2000s and lost. Its tough to strike a balance between my need to track certain "black swan" events but still avoid cherry-picking, although that is what I'm doing with such low-occurrence events.

The Cavalier's epic losing streak

2011-02-08T15:28:00.000-05:00

The Cavaliers have now lost 24 games in a row, the longest losing streak in NBA history and are only two or three losses shy of the all-time professional sports losing streak (of the NBA, NFL, MLB, and NHL). They averaged losing games by 13 ppg during the streak, but over the last four games they were only losing by 5 ppg. And that got me thinking about how they were likely trying desperately hard to avoid losing and setting the streak, ratcheting up their practice intensity, pre-game preparation and in-game effort. All in all though, it didn't help them win games. But relative to the spread, I bet they were doing better.

An astronaut goes to space

2011-02-04T11:09:00.000-05:00

Representative Giffords has a husband, who is an astronaut. She is in a coma after being attacked by a madman. He is scheduled to go on a flight mission in April. Will he go, or remain with her as she tries to recover from a senseless attack?

I remember reading that and thinking about two things. First, what I know about people in the Navy. Second, what I think a marriage between an Astronaut and a Congresswoman would be like. How often do they get to even see each other? On her end, she much campaign across her district, has professional obligations in Washington D.C., on top of travel, political events, etc., etc. He is an astronaut stationed in Cape Canaveral, Florida, with his own demanding professional obligations. He must train, remain under the watchful eye of Nasa, and spend a lot of time flying to prepare.

Basically, they are probably never together. It is kind of like a paper marriage. Probably not even a real sense of togetherness. Here are a few quotes from the article:

"If he does choose, and NASA management chooses, for him to fly this mission ... I am absolutely 100 percent confident that he will have no problem fulfilling his responsibilities the same way as if this incident would have never occurred."

Wow. And he is being praised for that. If my wife were in a coma and trying to recover from a terrorist attack, I wouldn't be going on a two-week trip to outer space when someone else would jump at the chance to do the job.

District 9

2011-02-02T14:06:00.000-05:00

I watched District 9 last night at home. It is a really really cool movie, produced by Peter Jackson and shot in South Africa. It is a science fiction with a lot of undertones about xenophobia, fear, war crimes, etc.

The last third of the movie became kind of ridiculous, with bullets flying everywhere and never seeming to hit anyone, which detracts from it. The movie did a great job with a documentary-style realism that made a pretty fantastical scenario seem plausible, but threw it all away to make a "good" action scene with thousands of bullets shot everywhere and the main characters escaping unharmed. It felt more like a James Bond movie at the end than a good sci-fi film. There are a number of narrative holes that I would hope to have filled in with a sequel, such as why the aliens appeared so disorganized and dumb despite having such great technology. Why did the "smart" alien with the red vest seem so much smarter than the other aliens. Why was he able to work to make a ship while the rest did nothing but goof off all day?

Also, I'm currently reading Guns, Germs, and Steel by Jared Diamond, so I'm surprised there were no interspecies diseases being passed about that would have either wiped out the aliens or wiped out the humans. All in all there is a lot to be answered.

I was a big fan though of the whole "discovery" process where the two species are learning about each other and the various stages of human excitement and wonder at the aliens, to eventual frustration and hatred.

Also the acting was for the most part very good and believable. I love watching good actors, they really nail the facial expressions and body language of the person they are portraying.

UFC Lesnar vs. Velasquez

2011-01-27T12:48:00.000-05:00

I remember watching the post-fight celebration when Brock Lesnar defeated Shane Carwin. He looked relieved. That was the first thing I noticed about his facial expressions. He didn't look like he was on a mission, or confident, or anything. He honestly looked like a kid who just had a shot from the doctor and realized it wasn't as bad as he thought it was going to be. And his next fight, he lost to Cain Velasquez. I don't know if the two are related at all, but it was certainly a weird facial expression to have.

Also, a couple years ago before Kimbo Slice was defeated in a Strikeforce X fight (I may be wrong about the brand) I noticed his facial expressions were really weird pre-fight. He looked in the camera and and was frowning as though he was angry, but it looked like a fake frown. Like he actually wasn't upset or angry at all. It was very strange. He lost his fight too and is now out of UFC entirely.

Upcoming Ohio State versus Arkansas bowl game

2011-01-03T16:51:00.000-05:00

Based on the performance of SEC teams versus other Big Ten teams, my thinking is that Ohio State will be beaten soundly by Arkansas, despite being the higher seed. I haven't watched a single game of Arkansas's this year, I'm simply looking at how common opponents are fairing against each other.

Lakers vs Heat

2010-12-25T15:47:00.000-05:00

The Lakers were blown out at home by the Milwaukee Bucks for the game preceding today's game between the Lakers and Heat. That should definitely help their performance against Miami, as it will refocus them. I'll watch the game today but it should definitely have had a positive effect overall.

We'll see the results shortly.

The other side of the coin is that today the Lakers will give their best effort, and I'm sure the Heat will too. So taking into account home court advantage, it should be a good indicator of where each team is relative to each other.

If the Lakers lose today, thats a bad sign.

The match-ups will be interesting

Different types of humor

2010-12-23T10:56:00.000-05:00

I was thinking about the different types of humor and the ways they are expressed in movies and books and tv shows.

The most common way is the clueless person who is expected to be smart. For example, a person in a position of authority who is actually a doofus, but must be taken seriously by everyone. Kind of like Michael Scott.

Another is when two people are talking about different things, but are assuming they are both talking about the same thing. I remember watching The Ladies Man and a Catholic Nun was talking about the Yalu River in China and he was talking about the Yellow River.

People taking trivial things seriously. This happens a lot, basically actors being too serious for a given situation.

Often times it is a merging of the person watching the joke and his/her expectations with the expectations of the actors or characters in the show. That mismatch can create humor.

Also, in LOTR a big theme is people making a decision about an issue or idea, and trying to act on it, only to find it is a moot point. There are many examples of this. Gandalf dies fighting the balrog, giving up his life to protect it, only to be granted another life by the Gods. Aragorn, after taking Gondor, takes his army on a suicide mission to attack Mordor and draw out their forces, only to have Frodo destroy the ring at the last possible second, saving his life. In Tolkien's book, it is often more important what people decided to do rather than what was actually done, as external forces conspire to change the reality of the situation after characters decide to act, but before they can actually do so.

NBA topics

2010-12-20T03:24:00.000-05:00

What causes a team to quit? When has a team quit? How can one tell when a team has quit? When a professional or college team fails to meet expectations, do they quit? Are our perceptions of the team drawn up afterwards?

Blah blah blah.

This blog is nearly dead. I simply don't have the motivation to write any more.

Lakers vs Kings

2010-12-04T18:50:00.000-05:00

The Lakers won by 30 at home in a laugher to stop their four game losing streak. Rah.

I'll try to continue keeping track of losing streaks during the NBA season.

NBA Martingale Part II

2010-12-02T16:14:00.000-05:00

I was thinking more about the NBA martingale system. Really every team in the NBA will eventually win games. The important part is getting a large enough sample size and controlling the size of the bet made.

What about looking at road trips, say 5 games in length or more. What are the odds of a team winning all five in a row? Could a reverse martingale system be done to bet on a team to lose, i.e. picking the whichever team the subject is playing against? There is probably huge levels of attrition on road trips, in the sense that teams get more and more fatigued with each effort required to win games on the road. What about a bad team on the road? The worst teams in the league have long road trips too. The odds of them sweeping a road trip must be unfathomable.

Now that is a research subject.

I think the main reason I haven't tried to research it more is not a lack of time but a lack of opportunity to bet the games and a small amount of disinterest.

Lakes versus Kings Dec 3rd

2010-12-02T12:48:00.000-05:00

The Lakers have lost four in a row despite being the defending champions. On Friday they play the Kings, at home no less. I'm sure Kobe Bryant is furious about their longest losing streak in years, and they have the same team (minus Bynum) that won the championship last year. Although I'm sure they are tired from busy summers, they are still a good team.

What are the odds the Lakers will win on Friday? I don't know, but I would feel comfortable betting a lot of money on the Lakers to win, at home, against a 4-15 team, to snap a four game losing streak for them.

Situations like this remind me of why an NBA Martingale system based on the one or two best teams in the league could be very profitable.

Heat vs Lakers

2010-10-28T17:34:00.000-04:00

In analyzing which team would win a seven game match up (NBA Finals) I have to consider the three out of five method. Essentially, which team has better players at more positions?

Center: Bynum/Odom vs Joel Anthony
Advantage Lakers

Power Forward: Gasol vs. Bosh
Advantage Lakers

Shooting Forward: James vs Artest
Advantage Heat

Shooting Guard: Bryant vs. Wade
Undecided

Point Guard: Fisher vs Arroyo
Tie

So the issue is who is better, Wade or Bryant? If it is Wade (and I'm inclined to believe it is) then the match is a push, with possibly the Lakers winning because size beats perimeter players. If Bryant can match Wade for a series, great, but I have serious doubts he could guard Dwayne Wade for a seven game series. Dwayne is really fast and really strong, and Kobe Bryant is coming off a knee surgery and is now in his early thirties.

Brett Favre and the Vikings

2010-10-25T11:35:00.000-04:00

The Vikings are currently 2-4 and barring a major turnaround, will miss the playoffs and finish the season with a wimper.

Brett Favre was brought in for $10,000,000 to play this year and has mired himself into a sex scandal with a NY Reporter and is also playing quite poorly. He has tendinitis in his elbow and appears to be missing throws, probably due to the fact that he missed all of training camp and obviously did not stick to his off-season conditioning program, if he even had one.

Its too bad to see, but the guy obviously didn't prepare as much for this season and is also not as focused due to the NFL investigation plus the obvious problems his wife will have with his behavior.

It just seems like there is a lack of focus on behalf of the Favre and a lack of dedication, which is affecting the entire team. Also, based on some of Brad Childress's comments, it appears that there are lots of disagreements between Favre and Childress, with Favre thinking he knows more than Childress and wanting to make the decisions. Overall its not a recipe for success.

TV Timeouts during NFL Games

2010-10-20T12:21:00.000-04:00

The NFL showed why it is the premiere sports league in America with the highest value of its franchises: blatantly injecting as much commercialism as the American viewers can handle. With two minutes to go in a blowout game between the Tennessee Titans and the Jacksonville Jaguars, the referees asked the Coach of the Titans to call timeouts simply to show ads to the viewers.

Its depressing. And lame. And shows why NFL teams make so much money.

Now the NFL is addressing concussion concerns and is threatening to suspend players who make violent helmet-to-helmet concerns and is attempting to address the culture of carelessness to physical violence in the NFL. This is all a result of external pressures and none of it comes from any desire to decrease the occurrence of injuries in the most violent sport around by the NFL.

What lessons are to be learned from this ? Perhaps it is best to come up with something intriguing so people want to watch, them sell lots of advertisements to generate revenue.

The other thought I've had is how difficult it is to break into the NFL's monopoly on football. Simply put, no one else could make a league that can really compete with them for violent outdoor sports. The only other option to really consider is soccer, which is also an outdoor sport and caters to the same type of fans.

The T.Ocho Show

2010-10-19T10:15:00.000-04:00

I just saw an ad for the T.Ocho show, a sports radio talk show featuring Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco (formerly Chad Johnson). I also noticed that the Cincinnati Bengals have a record of 2-3. Stuff like this never seems to help the team win games.

I also have been thinking about Shaq's attempts at media relevancy like his show "Shaq versus" and his blatant attempts the past few years to hop onto a good team in the hopes of winning an easy championship. Then I read a comment from Doc Rivers about Shaq's terrible freethrow shooting form doesn't bother Doc Rivers and immediately decided the Celtics won't win another championship.

Doc Rivers' coaching style is not one to push and prod youngsters but instead to get maximum effort and concentration out of veterans. Doc is just not going to get any production out of Shaq and Shaq will instead sap the teams concentration and effort throughout the season.

Celtics = done.

Destroyed by Shaq.

Bleacher Report Articles

2010-10-11T01:40:00.000-04:00

I'm trying to think up a couple of topical articles for BR about college football and the disparity between perception and reality. One is the concept of preseason rankings and what contributes to a team being over-rated to start the pre-season. Another is what causes good teams to lose (like Alabama did recently). Another good topic is the concept of drive.

I want to do some serious college football writing and get the feedback from the community to sharpen my knowledge and give me more evidence. Rely upon the memory and passion of the whole community to broaden my knowledge.

Yes!

Face reading

2010-10-10T16:17:00.000-04:00

Just had another flash of inspiration.

Perhaps data analysis and whatnot is too crowded of a scene. Perhaps a better tack is the path less taken, the concept of focusing solely on emotional aspects of a team. Trying to find a few people who are good at reading facial expressions and unleashing them on college football.

I don't know.

Too big of a problem to wrap my head around.

College Football

2010-10-10T16:12:00.000-04:00

I had a wide ranging discussion last night with one of the foremost authorities on college football, and we discussed misconceptions in college football and the absurd amount of data and time required to do a proper job of understanding college football and why stuff happens the way it does.

The biggest issues currently are:
1) Data collection
2) Time to make analysis decisions

These are both time consuming, especially data collection. There is just so much information out there.

College Football Season gets Underway...

2010-09-27T14:16:00.000-04:00

Another season of College Football is underway. Another season where I think of the possibilities out there but am just unable to pursue any of my own research, which is too bad. The biggest problem is data research and accumulation. I.e. data mining.

Just as generals of old won battles not through tactics but through logistics, so does a modern analyst get information and power through the proper collection of data instead of just "sensing" or "predicting". Unfortunately, both logistics and data mining are tedious, boring, and time-intensive. A real triple threat that I am powerless against.

More importantly, I would want to study what drives perceptions and assumptions and look for recurring weaknesses. Once I start working full time I should set aside a small portion of my budget for this new project. Perhaps a few hundred dollars to pay some college kid or high-school fan to find all this data for me and sort it out on excel sheets.

Hope springs eternal!

New Posts will be forthcoming!

2010-09-27T11:54:00.000-04:00

I've switched my blogger account to my current email address, so I'll be posting on here more often. Previously, I had to switch google accounts to even see my blog so I've done away with that.

Also, on BR I'm up to 11,500 reads and 20 articles written.

Cincinnati Bengals

2010-09-23T15:45:00.000-04:00

The Cincinnati Bengals recently signed a player to a four year deal with 8 million dollars guaranteed, and then cut him four weeks later.

Pathetic.

You wonder why a franchise like the Bengals has had such limited success in the NFL over the years, its plays like that which are a symptom of the underlying problems they face.

Is Isiah Thomas being paid by James Dolan to keep a secret?

2010-08-09T23:45:00.002-04:00

After hearing that James Dolan was determined to keep giving Isiah Thomas free money, this time as a "consultant" to the Knicks with an unverified list of responsibilities while still being a college coach, a position which is most certainly illegal with respect to the NBA, I concluded he must, absolutely must, be paying him "hush money".

There is no other rational explanation.

Their relationship will assuredly be struck down by the NBA's team of legal experts and lawyers. I can't imagine such an incestuous relationship between an NCAA Coach and an NBA team to be allowed.

But what motivates James Dolan, billionaire and cable TV mogul, to keep giving and giving to a man so vilified by media and basketball experts? There has to be something behind the scenes.

Consider the list of people who have had illicit affairs in recent memory: Bill Clinton, Tiger Woods, Jesse Jackson, Larry Craig, Elliot Spitzer, Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, etc., etc. These men all had impeccable public records prior to their respective scandals.

It is no stretch to imagine another person has succumbed under the bright lights of fame and celebrity. I think its possible that a behind the scenes agreement between James Dolan and Isiah Thomas requires Mr. Dolan to keep giving Isiah Thomas money in perpetuity as a requirement of remaining quiet.

Isiah Thomas joined the Knicks in 2002 as President of Basketball operations. By 2006 the team had the highest payroll and the second worst record in the league. He has been implicated in the $11.6 million sexual harassment lawsuit filed against the Knicks, rumored to have instigated the brawl between the Nuggets and Knicks on December 16th, 2006, and many other actions that lead to a very poor resume.

Yet still he is being brought back in an unspecified role that looks like it is just a way for James Dolan to give Isiah Thomas more money.

I say this because there is no way Isiah Thomas is being recruited for his acumen as a general manager. As a player he was superb; as a front office worker, he has been terrible.

Leadership Series

2010-07-24T14:40:00.002-04:00

I've now profiled Shaq and Kevin Durant. Who next? Among the people I can think of are Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, Derek Fisher, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, etc., etc. There are many player choices. What about coaches? Phil Jackson, Doc Rivers, Greg Popovich, Stan Van Gundy. Front office: Pat Riley is the first that comes to mind.

Owners: Mark Cuban

NBA Leadership: David Stern

Leadership 101: Shaq

2010-07-24T14:39:00.000-04:00

Shaquille O'Neal has been one of the great players in NBA history but his remarkable run of championships (4), All-Star appearances (15), and relevancy (drafted 1992) has come to a startling and regrettable conclusion.

And it's his fault.

The sad part is that despite his greatness on the court and incredible personality off the court, his wounds are self-inflicted and he should be considered a model for hownot to lead a team or organization.

His current basketball status is that of elder statesman. He is the longest-tenured player in the NBA and like all aging players, his abilities have declined.

In his favor, he was the starting center on a team with the NBA's best record last year and still averaged 12 points and 6.7 rebounds Those are good numbers for the oldest man in the league!

As far as aging veterans go who are trying to get one more shot at a championship, they typically have a label applied to them. A label that is intended as a compliment but often has the undertone of a role player who won't be playing many crunch time minutes.

What is that label?

Character guy.

Throughout his career, Shaq has openly mocked character players and veterans who subjugate their egos to win.

Shaq practiced "leadership by performance," which means it doesn't matter what one does off the court as long as one steps up during the game, which is not surprising for a player who relied almost entirely on physical dominance and skills.

He never developed the work ethic or appreciation for teamwork that a less physically gifted but supremely motivated player would have. Consider his early rival David Robinson.

Mr. Robinson, whose amazing skills came with discipline and leadership he undoubtedly learned during his rigorous training at the U.S. Naval Academy, was a character guy. Because of that, later in his career, the Spurs kept him and his eroding skills, and he was able to help them win another championship.

Mr. O'Neal has used "leadership by performance" his entire career, belittling the franchises he left (Orlando, Los Angeles, Miami, and Phoenix) in favor of the new one. He always stated he "makes free throws when it counts" despite missing almost half of them.

And that attitude and method of leadership is not consistent with being a character guy, which will prevent him from winning another title. Ever.

Shaq is done at four, forever behind Kobe.

If you don't believe me, consider the short list of contenders in the NBA: the L.A. Lakers ('09 and '10 champs), the Boston Celtics ('08 champs), Orlando ('09 Eastern champs), Miami Heat (free agent signings put them on the rise), and possibly the Chicago Bulls (same as Miami).

Shaq burned the Lakers, Magic, and Heat.

He mocked Kendrick Perkins, Boston's starting center. He has, in fact, mocked nearly everyone in the league, from Kobe to Dwight to Pat Riley to Stan Van Gundy.

When he was on top of the league and could beat double teams, "leadership by performance" was acceptable. He called players to step up and perform with him and match his level of excellence.

When they failed, he belittled them.

Now that he has failed to match his own standards, no team will give him the time of day.

The most damning evidence: LeBron James, who played with Shaq last year, won't recommend him to Miami. LeBron knows his skill level, accomplishments, and character, but won't play with him anymore.

Shaq has had a great career, but he'll never win another championship and be relevant again. His career is unfortunately over, and sadly, it's his own fault.

The Leadership Series

2010-07-23T23:41:00.002-04:00

I just published my second "Leadership 101" series article about Shaq. I think that articles about the players could be 101 series, articles about coaches could be 201, articles about franchises could be 301, and articles about the NBA overall could be 401. That would be a cute little signature method to tie all the articles together and analyze the different methods/types.

Rah!

Next leadership article and another idea

2010-07-23T15:17:00.003-04:00

I want to write another leadership article first on BR, in order to build some momentum for the leadership evaluation series I'm writing. Shaq? AI? Kobe I will save for last. Should I switch sports an analyze football or baseball? But my heart and passion is with the NBA, so I think I should write about how Shaq's poor leadership is finally catching up with him. Also, I think the best NBA leaders will always be the short guys, as they had to fight hardest to make it in the league.

Also, a great topic would be about determining if the Heat are setting themselves up to be the laziest team in the NBA? LeBron has the personal mentality of "if I want it I can get it" so they may start to coast through the regular season, letting other teams outpace them if they win a championship or two and the everything becomes boring, then try to turn it on after the fact.

How a Conversation Starts....

2010-07-23T13:56:00.003-04:00

I have heard many stories about pro athletes who were spurned on Draft Day, or cut, or were simply drafted lower than projected. They felt insulted, let down, deceived, and mostly just hurt.

Then they put their heads down and that feeling stays with them, through the bus trips, the work outs, the failures, the let downs, and eventually they stop sliding down the hill and start climbing up.

And when they get going, boy do they really get going! Years pass and I've forgotten all about them; but one day I'm watching a highlight on ESPN or YouTube and there he is again, sprinting towards the goal, leading a pack and I just know they won't catch him. Could be a fast break, a fumble return, or simply a player stretching a single into a double and arriving just as the ball arrives. Tie goes to the runner.

He's not the top player or the face of the franchise, but he is the player who makes every hustle play and comes up with something when everyone else thought there was nothing there. In fact, he came up with something for his life, his definition of self, when the 'experts' evaluated him and found nothing there.

Too bad we don't have a word for that. There has to be a word in Spanish, Italian, French, or Swahili (spelling?), that sums up that feeling of determination brought on by how the conversation starts, by that initial rejection in the face of hope and perhaps a touch of expectation.

That is the mentality that is required to achieve one's potential.

When I think of LeBron, I think of the worlds best basketball player. But I also think of a person who has always, and I mean always, had success. With everything he does. He won three state championships in high school, was so far ahead of the pack in the draft that it wasn't even exciting watching the draft but more exciting watching the lottery to see which team won the draft and would draft him. The draft is supposed to be a day where the players see who picks them. LeBron watched a lottery between multi-millionaires to see would get him. He flipped it on his head.

In the NBA he has already won back-to-back MVP awards, been to the NBA finals, all-star game MVP, etc., etc., etc. Everything he has turned his mind to he has done simply by willing it to happen.

Except one thing.

You know what it is. I know what it is. And that thing, which I won't name, has not occurred despite having the best record in the entire league two seasons in a row. And LeBron has definitely willed himself to win it. He has tried and for the first time in his life had failure.

So it shouldn't be a surprise that he turns his attention to another team, with a proven leader that he can team with, to a team completely stacked so they can win the title by simply willing themselves to win, just like LeBron has done with everything else in his life.

Leadership 101 Series

2010-07-21T19:44:00.002-04:00

I want to write a series of articles on Bleacher Report detailing the leadership traits and personalities of various athletes. This will be a great way for me to write about something unique while covering athletes in different areas, and refine my own study of leadership.

Leadership is such a challenging subject and writing about it, analyzing it, and hopefully getting in some good discussion with people about it will expand my knowledge and expand the knowledge of the readers as well.

Future topics to cover include Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant, Doc Rivers, Stan Van Gundy, Phil Jackson, Tom Brady, and many, many more. Leadership and human action is an endlessly challenging field which is open ended and not goal oriented, making it a perfect field of study for my needs.

Full Text of KD Article

2010-07-21T19:43:00.001-04:00

Kevin Durant's leadership style is an important aspect of the Oklahoma City Thunder's development and is the No. 1 reason they improved by a staggering 27 wins over their 2008-2009 season.

To start this article, I want to separate his basketball talents and physical skills from his leadership style. His talents include leading the league in free throw attempts per game and being a prolific scorer; his leadership skills allow him to translate that hard work into motivation for his teammates to accept and improve their own roles for the team.

His leadership primarily affects his teammates and what they do, while his talents affect his impressive nightly stat line and nothing else.

Oklahoma City fans already know what the rest of the world is learning: Kevin Durant is a firm believer in “Leadership by Personal Example.” What is so natural for small families and military units becomes a rare trait in the world of multi-million dollar athletes.

Has anyone seen this hilarious Allen Iverson video? Statistically, they both have regular season scoring titles; for philosophy, they couldn't be farther apart.

Leadership by example is the strongest type of leadership and is actually fairly rare in sports. It is legitimately difficult to demand someone making $15 million dollars a year, worshipped by hundreds of thousands of fans and his own national brand, to accept the same standards as a bench warmer.

LeBron James had his entourage fly with him on the team plane; Barry Bonds had a designated leather seat in the dugout, and we all know many other stories of over-pampered adult men. I know of no such Kevin Durant story and while one may emerge, his example right now is one of hard work, effort, and discipline.

The best example is how many times Kevin gets to the free throw line per game: 10.24, with a 90% success rate.

Besides Dirk Nowitzki, I can't think of a player that tall who makes so many free throws.

More importantly, it takes a strong commitment to aggression and absorbing a relentless physical beating to earn that many free throws in the NBA. He took 840 free throws this past year: that is a lot of NBA-level fouls, fouls from centers and power forwards who weigh in excess of 240 pounds per person.

His personal example is what sets up Thabo Sefolosha to selflessly play defense (and not much else) for every game of the year, similar to Tim Duncan's leadership encouraging Bruce Bowen to work hard for little personal reward and recognition.

It is important to remember that while NBA teams win and lose as a team, they get paid individually, often based on scoring and perception with less emphasis on defense and rebounding.

Many collections of "talented" players under achieve and fail to make waves in the playoffs (think Golden Sate Warriors 2007-2008 or Atlanta Hawks 2009-2010). Neither team had a leader able to inspire selfless acts, merely a collection of scorers focusing on their stat lines.

His personal belief in work hard combined with his physical tools have made him one of the best players in the NBA. A man who will inspire peak performances from his teammates not just on game day, but during off season workouts, off days during the season, and in the film room.

That is why they improved 27 games over the previous season, and while they won't improve by 27 wins again (that would mean 77 wins next season!), they can easily set their sights on earning home court advantage for at least one round of the playoffs, perhaps more.

The best thing to occur during the "Summer of LeBron" for the Thunder was Kevin Durant signing a five-year contract extension worth about $86 million. That will take him to age 26, the age where most players focus on simply maintaining their abilities rather than improving.

Oklahoma City gets to watch one of the preeminent leaders and players of this generation mature, grow, and ultimately create a legacy that will be remembered.

Leadership of Kevin Durant facts and tidbits

2010-07-20T13:57:00.002-04:00

Kevin just signed a On July 7, 2010, Durant announced on his Twitter page that he signed a 5 year contract extension with the Thunder.^[42] The extension is worth about $86 million.^[43]

[edit]Personal

blah blah blah

That was a cut and paste job.

This post is really just a way for me to assemble to some facts about KD. The full article will come later.

He is also on Team USA and the likely leader (in terms of star power) for the team (also in terms of desire and work ethic). A quick look at the potential roster shows he was the regular season scoring leader, but Chauncey Billups (NBA champ '04, Finals MVP '04) and Lamar Odom (NBA Champ '09, '10) are on the team with a lot of credentials. It will be interesting to see if they defer to him, or resent his alleged "arrival".

Chauncey and Lamar have a history of deferring to others, so its possible.

2010 All-NBA 1st team.

I shall talk briefly about the psychology of being skinny, but should keep it brief.

Mention work ethic; find some quotes about KD to use. "quiet leadership".

The Leadership Style of Kevin Durant

2010-07-18T23:08:00.002-04:00

I want to publish a BR article about the leadership style of Kevin Durant and I will start my leadership inquiry here.

First off I think he believes in leadership by example. He is motivated to be the hardest worker on the team, and goes about his training in a logical and forthright manner.

He is skinny, and as a former "skinny kid" myself, I know that it only makes his mental toughness go up to make up for his perceived lack of physical toughness. Contrast with Shaq, who is physically very tough but has been very sensitive to criticism his entire career. So KD followers won't have to worry about his ego getting in the way.

Leadership by example is similar to that of Kevin Garnett, who frequently spoke of his desire to be the first one in the gym and the last to leave.

Contrast with the leadership style of Allen Iverson, which is about on-court performance and nothing else. This is less effective because although it worked for A.I. personally, it never pulls teammates up and indeed, allows him to measure his performance separately from that of others.

KD and Kevin Garnett were more about team results and feel that they can singlehandedly win games by outpracticing and outworking everyone before the game even starts. This is the most effective team-leadership style for the NBA.

While personal performance merits all-star appearances, the last shot as the game expires, and many other accolades, many people are interested in team performance (i.e. making the playoffs, securing home court advantage,

Back to KD. KD has taken some criticism personally, such as when he was attacked on Truehoop and by several statisticians about his poor pick and roll defense. He responded by focusing on that area and showing much improvement this year.

The important thing to note is that by focusing on a weakness, he improved it. That search-and-destroy mentality to weaknesses is reminiscent of an MJ saying "I will take a weakness and make it a strength".

Contrast this with LeBron James, who's back to the basket and post-up game are way below where they should be for someone of his amazing ability and potential. Two straight post-season flame-outs have not convinced him to work on his shortcomings but have instead made him sign with Miami, hoping that better teammates will bring him the championships he desires.

It seems likely that KD will methodically work to improve all areas of his game until injury and age make it more important to maintain his current levels rather than aspire for higher ones.

He is currently twenty one and NBA players max out physically around 26. While the mental game and experience continue to grow day to day, Kevin has about five seasons of the methodical improvement which is so fun to watch as a fan of Oklahoma.

**mention contract length here**

Dwayne Wade Wins the Regular Season MVP Award!

2010-07-16T12:39:00.002-04:00

Dwayne Wade is setting the stage for himself to win the 2010-2011 regular season MVP award with his vocal defense of new teammate LeBron James from accusations that he "quit" during the playoffs the last two years.

The psychology of the team is already set and he is their Leader; the problem is until now the outward signs have been hidden from view. While we pundits wonder who will emerge as the leader, who will have the most points, and who will get the ball in crunch time, the "3Heat" already know the answer: Dwayne Wade.

As an NBA fan, I readily admit LeBron is the best player in the NBA despite living in California and rooting for the Lakers. However, LeBron has admitted in interviews that he doesn't have the "killer mentality" of a Kobe or more importantly, a Michael Jordan.

Problem is, I and everyone else who loves the NBA wouldn't admit it to ourselves. Even with LeBron telling us point blank that he's not like that, we couldn't admit it. How could someone THAT good not be so driven as to isolate himself from everyone, belittle his own teammates, fight with everyone, and eventually win championships?

Although many NBA fans will still debate who the best player is, it is clear that LeBron would be the most fun to have as a teammate. Heck, if I had played for the Cavs he'd still pass me the ball even though I can barely shoot! He did that in the playoffs against the Pistons in 2005 when he passed to Donyell Marshall for a game winning three despite having a clear path for a layup. He's a genuinely honest and loving guy, friendly and easy to laugh with, who happens to be the greatest NBA player alive.

He'll never be caught on video ordering his GM to "ship his ass out" like Kobe was caught talking about Andrew Bynum.

But he'll never push, prod, goad, and fight his own teammates into position to win a championship.

Which brings me to Dwayne Wade.

If anyone watched the 2006 series where he destroyed the Dallas Mavericks and single handedly won a playoff series and a Championship, they know Dwayne Wade will rise (or sink) to any level to win. He will drive the lane over and over, come as close to travelling as possible, push, grab, hold, literally anything to win, and if the entire state of Texas forever hates him, then let them hate.

Now that LeBron is tucked safely under Dwayne Wade's protective (and muscular) arm, he can continue to play the beautiful game of basketball we mortals can only dream of. But when it comes time for the speech to rally his team back from a 2-0 deficit in the playoffs, he will be listening and Dwayne Wade will be furiously barking at his team like a Marine Captain in the middle of a war.

Dwayne Wade will be the leading scorer, be the best player and captain on the team with the best record, the team unlike any from my generation has ever seen. LeBron will have the best highlights, but Mr. Wade will get the awards. And if they are fortunate enough to win four playoff series in a row (and LeBron knows its never guaranteed) then Dwayne Wade will hoist the Bill Russell award, with a literal and metaphorical assist from LeBron.

We are all guilty witnesses

2010-07-12T13:49:00.002-04:00

I like LeBron James a lot. I rooted for him against the Pistons all those years he battled them in the E.C. I've been a game to watch him play and he was everything he is said to be. The only thing he's ever done that I disliked was "the Decision". And what makes me dislike it is not the actual decision or the way he did it, but that I was excited for the decision and so incredibly let down by it.

That is why so many people are disappointed by "The Decision". It sucked. The show was a piece of crap and afterwards, every single person watching had an epiphany and realized how deluded we had all become over this process. I am the first to admit how excited I was about "the Decision" and I spent hours thinking over the possibilities, reading about the different choices, day dreaming and discussing, and was ultimately disappointed.

I realized as I watched it that 29 cities and literally millions of people had been kicked in the stomach and were turning off their TVs, thousands of TVs every second until the only people left watching were Miami Heat fans and gluttons for punishment.

There was no way everyone could have been happy or satisfied but somehow, everyone convinced themselves that they both knew what he would do and that it would turn out favorably for them.

It was an impossible mixture of hope, willful ignorance, and vicarious living. And when LeBron said the words "South Beach" we all realized how foolish we had been. No one is actually mad at LeBron. We are simply mad at ourselves.

Another writing topic

2010-07-12T13:42:00.003-04:00

Doubt and hope are intertwined emotions. Hope is found in a dire situation because of the doubt. The situation may seem hopeless, the enemies plentiful, the options few, but there is hope because of the doubt inside each and every one of us. The doubt that the end will be as bad as we fear it may be; doubt gives us the irrational but necessary hope to push through bad days, dark times, and cloudy skies.

A healthy person has doubt and hope in equal measures.

Wow what a terrible piece of writing I just cranked out.

Writing

2010-07-12T12:31:00.002-04:00

I've been reading this amazing book, "Writing to Change the World", by Mary Pipher, for about a week now. Its incredible. My fiancee was mad at me for underlining in pen last night, so I've switched to pencil, but that doesn't stop me from underlining!

Mary Pipher is a professional therapist and psychologist as well as a writer. Her writing topics have mostly been activist topics and she gives examples of her activism throughout her career. My desire would be to write more fiction topics than anything else. Whats amazing is reading her insight into human emotions and also some observations about linguistics.

I'm going to re-post all the underlined things and write a little about them.

"Whereas writers of propaganda encourage readers to accept certain answers, writers who want to transform their readers encourage the asking of questions". p 23.

That quote is great insight into the difference between the two.

"Once I articulated all these aspects about myself to myself, I tried to write as close to a unified conceptualization of myself as I could". p43.

What is my own tone and voice?

"Our lives are journeys toward a certain kind of wisdom, which is a love and appreciation for all living creatures". p58.

"We experience our lives as lived events, but also as material to be carefully examined later for richness and meaning. Just as meditation makes life more aware and joyous, so writing allows us to live more deeply and fully. Both involve the sanctification of time". P83.

I'm glad I've been writing for some time now and categorizing some things in my life. Must do them all!

"...that the way people enter into a conversation influences its outcome and that true change occurs only in the context of relationships". p 85.

this seems very true, and the first thing that popped into my mind was the Israeli/Palestinian negotiations.

"With our presence and attention, we suggest that honest exploration of issues is healing and that hiding from them is toxic...linguistic determinism that naming determines action and that which is unnamed is ignored". p86.

Some of my own experiences mirror this quote. Its better to figure out what you are feeling and why than keep plugging away at life without asking the questions.

"this nuanced use of words is evidence of a clear thinker" p90.

Perhaps my favorite quote so far.

"never underestimate the reader's intelligence or overestimate his information level" p90.

I should apply this to my classes.

"lets put this in the context of the larger patterns of your life" p91.

Hilarious quote, almost made me laugh out loud.

"Black and white thinking in others is unlikely to be changed if we employ the same thinking ourselves" 91.

George Bust.

"Churchill once defined fanatics as people who won't change their minds and can't change the subject" p91.

Who doesn't know a few fanatics??

"Unacknowledged emotions do not disappear; they fester. Ignoring dark emotions leads to addiction and violence." p95.

Addiction, the greatest of them all.

"Often, in the real world, people who behave badly or disagree with others are shamed or made to feel guilty. However, shame and guilt are poor motivating tools. They sap energy, and lead to rigid thinking. They may work short-term, but long-term they almost never sustain good behavior" p96.

Can I apply this to my teachings??

"appeal to clients' better selves" p96.

This to my teachings as well?

"Cynicism is a form of resistance, a walling off of the possibilities for transformation. At its core, it is a response to learned helplessness, a defensive strategy. Scratch every cynic and underneath you find a wounded idealist. For therapists and writers alike, the best treatment for cynicism is healing stories" p96.

First thought in my mind was I guy I knew once named Kevin C.

And finally...

"English does not include many words to describe mixed emotions--"poignant" and "bittersweet" are the only two that come to mind. German strings together adjectives to label complicated emotions; Japanese has many words to unsnarl such feelings" p105.

It would be delightful to read a book about the differences between the different languages of the world.

So where do I go from here? I want to start writing some sort of part time fiction stuff. Perhaps a modern day science fiction type novel, based in our society but with larger than life characters.
Thinking about these quotes and the larger context of the book, my first thought is about the moving starring Tom Cruise and his "pre-cog crime unit". The film, Minority Report, felt more like propaganda than a real movie trying to raise questions.

I'm sure Tom Cruise knew this, which raises more questions. Do most people prefer to be told what to think rather than do it themselves?

Contrast this to the success of the Matrix Trilogy, despite having one of the most boring and lame actors ever in Keanu Reeves. Perhaps it was his dead-panning of lines and general emotionlessness that allowed people to push past the human acting and superimpose themselves and their own questions on the movie.

Minority Report felt so contrived and the actors were very one-dimensional. Aside from the super cool graphics and cutting edge ideas, it was basically very limited and ended with a conclusion that felt forced. Most movies of that genre seem to feel forced with no real consideration and the villain always, always loses.

That is another major disappointment of mine with the Bond series. The bad guy always loses. For once I'd like to see a major movie where the bad guy wins, where people root for him despite his evilness, despite his flaws, and he emerges as a hero despite being bad at heart.

Perhaps a villain who at the most crucial part of the movie shows some sort of human side, makes a small concession, lives to fight another day, survives because of a scrap of goodness inside of him. Like Darth Vader versus the Emperor.

LeBron goes to Miami

2010-07-09T01:10:00.003-04:00

Wow.

Thats all I have to say. What a terrible way to punch Cleveland in the stomach, btw. If Bill Simmons is right about this entire drama being a charade, and that those three planned it ahead of time, even more wow.

The interview was very, very bizarre. I'll watch it again but LeBron had a very strange expression when talking about his Mom.

And to be honest, I don't think they'll win the Championship. They are like a donut, with a giant hole in the middle. That said, they will be a beast in the regular season, and could very well challenge 70 wins as they steamroll all the weak teams in the league. Biggest games of the year will be versus the Celtics, Magic, and Lakers, and possibly the Thunder as well. That team is going to be strong, strong, strong in the years to come. Durant is becoming a natural leader; leading by example is the strongest method of leadership and he seems like a very honest and hard working man. As his personal expectations grow, he will become more demanding of his teammates.

But I digress. KD would make a great article for Bleacher Report.

LeBron is going to Cleveland, and I'm honestly not sure of their dominance. But its super impressive for Pat Riley to have swung this set up when it was least expected a month ago.

I also feel terrible for Cleveland and the way this all went down. LeBron quite possibly knew all along that he was leaving. Numerous people have mentioned that his facial expressions seemed off or disjointed at times. Now I found out that after Game 6 he didn't return a single call or text to Cleveland. Thats a terrible way to end a relationship that his (at least publicly) been so loving and supportive.

Facial Expressions II

2010-07-07T11:59:00.004-04:00

A cab driver in Cleveland, Ohio thinks that LeBron is leaving based on a facial expression he briefly shows when asked about his future. I watched a Pro Golfer, who was leading after his round was completed, make what could only be described as a uniquely Scottish facial expression. He drew back his mouth in a half grimace/half smile expression, but also scrunched his eyes. Its not a facial expression I've ever made or really even seen. I made the face a bunch of times but still couldn't figure it out.

It had to be some combination of anxiety, fear, but confidence and a perhaps a bit of superiority.

Very strange.

Facial Expressions

2010-07-07T11:27:00.002-04:00

People make the darndest facial expressions. Often times they are so strange I don't even know what they mean! That is, until I make it myself. Then I know EXACTLY what it means. Facial expressions are funny because they convey what the person is ACTUALLY thinking, at that instance. Often when someone puts up a mask they conceal their facial expression because they know how it can betray their true emotions. But often, when asked to talk, or consider some new fact, the facial expression shines through for a split second, as a ray of sun passes through a patch of clouds before being covered up again.

I watched film of Brock Lesnar's post fight interview, after he had just completed a 12-month comeback from a life-threatening intestinal problem. He had the strangest look on his face for a split second. I watched the interview about five times and tried to make the expression myself. The most conclusive thing I could come up with was that he was worried and a little bit afraid.

That expression acknowledged his concern and the doubts he had about the fight. Will it lead to a more humble Brock? It certainly seemed it did in his post-fight interview.

Will he be humble for longer than a few minutes? We'll see.

Blogging about Blogging

2010-07-01T13:54:00.002-04:00

I've been doing much writing lately. Golf journaling, blogging, personal journaling, formal letters, etc., etc. It really makes me introspective and analytical, but simultaneously enjoy everything in my life and made me more self aware. That concept of mindfulness actually started in golfing, where I frequently realized that I would walk up to the ball, and next thing I know the ball is fifty yards away in the wrong direction. My mind would just blank out over the ball until I was done. With work I became better able to focus on my swing while I was setting up, practicing, and ultimately swinging.

This concept of focusing on what I'm doing while I'm doing it is intriguing and is certainly a great subject to explore.

I choked in golf

2010-07-01T11:49:00.002-04:00

I was golfing yesterday at Sunken Gardens golf course. It is a nice par 29 course, featuring seven par-3s and two par-4s. Through eight holes I was having my best round ever. I had bogeyed the first hole, made three straight pars, a birdie, and then three more pars. That left me with, you guessed it, one hole to play before I could par the course. All I needed was a three on a hole that was playing 118 yards that day.

I'll be the first to say its never easy to land a green from any distance, and a 118 yards is a long ways. Nevertheless, I'd been playing quite well, made a few saves, had some great drives, and was confident. But as I did my preparations I thought I was focused, so I was completely surprised when the ball squirted out at a 45 degree angle, went across my fairway, through trees, and landed not on the green but in another fairway.

A terrible shot.

Not just a bad one, but the worst shot of the day on the most important hole of the day. I play 36 holes yesterday (thats four rounds) and it was easily my worst shot.

So what happened? I obviously choked. I didn't really approach the hole with the mindfulness I needed and didn't really check my backswing during the swing. I'm still surprised at what happened, and its bothersome.

I'm not afraid of becoming a choker or a panic-er. I simply need to get more technical knowledge. The fact is less than half my tee shots landed the greens I played. Some of my pars were tough up and downs. I simply have inconsistencies in my swing that result from not enough practice and not enough technical knowledge and not enough mindfulness. The best thing for me is to be able to monitor my swing and be aware of what I'm doing, as I'm doing it.

Golf is fun, and yesterday I almost made par on my first course. Once I do that, I can start trying to get under par for a round, par more courses, and par my first 18 hole course. It all comes down to focus, knowledge, and mindfulness.

NBA Finals 2010

2010-06-21T12:28:00.003-04:00

The NBA Finals were an amazing series. I am a Laker fan so I'm obviously happy about the way it turned out; however I have a few thoughts on some other angles to the series that I want to write down before I forget them.

Doc Rivers was disparaged as a coach who couldn't get a system in place or get productivity out of the Celtics before the current "Big 3" was assembled in the summer of 2007. Now he is seen as more of a veteran's coach who gets peak performance out of a unit where egos could easily dominate and cause diversity.

I'm going to say he's largely the same person he was before and after the 2008 season. So what gives? Well, contrast that to Avery Johnson, who is a control oriented coach with seemingly perfect technical knowledge and attention to detail. He also oversaw two of the biggest choke jobs in NBA history, squandering a 2-0 lead in the NBA Finals to a Miami Heat team that only won 52 games that year (compared to Dallas' sixty games). The following year, his 67 win team (67!!!) lost to the Golden State Warriors who squeaked into the playoffs on the final day of the regular season, before promptly losing 4-1 to Utah, who lost 4-1 to the Spurs, who finally won the championship.

Meanwhile, Doc Rivers lead a team with a solid starting five to upset victories over the league leading Cavaliers (61 wins) and then the Magic (59 wins) and nearly beat the Lakers, narrowly losing a game 7 in which the lead by 13 points in the third quarter.

Whats the difference? How can one coach who is able to pound and mold a team into a well-oiled regular season machine able to choke in the playoffs while coach Doc Rivers stumbles through home losses to the Nets and Wizards only to pull a five headed rabbit out of the proverbial hat once the playoffs start?

I don't know. I doubt anyone does. But consider a quote from Doc Rivers who said, and I quote "I'm a typical guy. I can point out the problem but I don't have a solution". It takes a big man to say that. Avery Johnson would never say that. Ever.

Ever.

Game 2 Thoughts and Game 3 preview

2010-06-08T11:50:00.002-04:00

Game 2 of the NBA Finals featured Ray Allen setting the 3 point shot record in the NBA Finals, with seven consecutive and 8 total three-pointers made. Despite his record performance, the Celtics trailed by 3 with five minutes remaining at a score of 90-87. The Celtics squeaked out a victory with the help of Rajon Rondo's triple double and amazing offensive rebounds.

Lamar Odom played 15 minutes due to over aggressive play; he's probably so amped up after sitting on the bench that he plays with too much energy at the start and ends up collecting fouls. His desire to contribute and play is actually hurting his performance.

Ron Artest had a 1-10 shooting night but is still doing amazing work on Paul Pierce defensively. They are simply letting Ron Artest guard his straight up on the perimeter knowing that Bynum and Gasol are simply camping in the paint waiting for a drive.

Which reminds me: Kendrick Perkins and Bynum are basically having a war in the paint and its working out in the favor of the Lakers as the Lakers perimeter defenders can be up in everyone's jersey, knowing that dribble penetration will be met by a rejuvenated Bynum and the ever-active Gasol.

Kevin Garnett looks so fragile I think I could guard him one on one. He knows that Gasol is taller, stronger, heavier, quicker, and younger. Advantage: Lakers.

If Ray Allen didn't have the GREATEST NIGHT IN FINALS HISTORY the game wouldn't have even been close. If he had shot his season average 40 percent and made four instead of eight, those missing points would have meant they were down 15 with five minutes to go instead of 3. An insurmountable lead.

Nate Robinson comes in cold off the bench and hits a fall away 3 pointer? I'm comfortable letting a castoff from one of the leagues worst teams shooting as many fall away 3-pointers as he wants.

Ray Allen was making catch and shoot 3s all night. Thats an amazing feat and he's legitimately the best shooter in the NBA right now. But thats all he's making. He isn't creating off the dribble or beating them one on one like Kobe can. So how about Shannon Brown quits leaving him to help in the lane and Derek Fisher fights through some screens? I mean get serious here. The Lakers will win Game 3 and they will win the series in 6.

Kevin Garnett dominated Rashard Lewis in the Orlando series? Rashard Lewis, a 6'10" power forward who needed to take HGH to average 5 rebounds a game? Really? Now that he's been suspended and off the juice for a year Kevin Garnett is boasting of his performance over him? Gasol is taller, heavier, stronger, and mentally tougher and most importantly, has faced the KG blitz before. He failed in 2008. He won't again.

The Lakers and Celtics are in the Finals

2010-06-02T12:27:00.003-04:00

To prepare for the Finals, which start tomorrow, I'm going to do a player by player comparison to determine which team has the advantage in the series.

Home Court: advantage goes to the Lakers. However, both are veteran teams, and both played well on the road. So I'd have to say that I doubt home court advantage will be a big factor in this series.

Point Guard: Rajon Rondo vs. Derek Fisher. Rajon has had some monster games this season and also led his teams in WP. Derek Fisher is 35 and not much of a dribble penetration kind of guy. The Celtics have a huge advantage in Rondo v Fisher.

Shooting Guard: Kobe Bryant vs. Ray Allen. Obviously, Kobe is Kobe, skilled at everything, and performing really well now that his knee is in better shape. The Celtics have Ray Allen, who is adept at moving without the ball, rolling around multiple screens, and hitting open shots. The problem for the Lakers is that it forces Kobe to spend energy on defense chasing Ray Allen. The problem for the C's is that Ray Allen will probably have to guard Kobe, which is very tough to do.

Small Forward: Paul Pierce versus Ron Artest. PP is a very good player, especially on offense. Ron Artest is a good player, especially on defense. Its a situation of one players strengths going against anothers strengths, which is rare. Most players make it to the NBA based on offense. Ron Artest was brought to the Lakers for defense. Also, Ron Artest has been hitting corners threes very well lately and playing under control. So while the Cs have the advantage when it comes to their best player, its not as much of one as I'd suspect. Ron Artest is happy to play like a pitbull all game against Ron Artest and nothing else.

Power Forward: Keven Garnett versus Pau Gasol. Advantage Lakers. With all due respect to KG and what he's done over the years, Pau is better. Hes much better on offense. However, same situation as the last position. Pau is great on offense, KG is great on defense. Tireless, relentess defense. Also, KG has always been a good outside shooter and has an array of post moves. Over the course of a season, Pau is better. A seven game series? Not as sure. Advantage Lakers, but not a big one.

Center: Two guys who are there for their defense, defending each other. Great. I expect 2.45 ppg for each player! Ha, we'll see. Between Kendrick Perkins technical foul trouble and Bynums knee problems, I expect both players to miss significant playing time this series. Advantage: No one.

6th Man: Lamar Odom vs. Glen Davis/Rasheed Wallace. Neither Cs sub has the combination of mobility and strength to match Lamar. He is also rebounding very well (see his 19 rebound performance against the Suns). Davis and Wallace both have their strengths, also Wallace has had back problems and is as likely to throw up a clunker of a game as he is a good game. Wallace does seem dialed in and focused, however. Advantage Lakers.

Bench: Both benches are erratic. The Lakers PGs may be able to help with Rajon Rondo ( Shannon Brown and Farmar) but beyond that, its a toss up as to which team's bench will have a good game and which one won't. Whoever blinks first losses the championship.

Coaches: Both veterans, both experienced. Doc Rivers had a reputation for being overmatched and incompetent before the Big 3 arrived, and he is now hailed as an amazing coach. Probably somewhere in between. Jackson's main coaching strategy has been to have Jordan, Pippen, Rodman, Shaq, Kobe, and now Gasol, as his players. I thought Stan Van Gundy did a better coaching job last year in the Finals.

Prediction? I don't know.

Shaq's injury may have helped the Cavs

2010-04-25T12:13:00.002-04:00

I think that Shaq's thumb injury and subsequent surgery, which required him to miss the last two months of the season, was good for him and the Cavs. First off, it allowed Z to get a lot of minutes after his one month lay-off and get back into the Cavs system (although I'm sure he had it down pat after pairing with LeBron and Coach Brown for the last six seasons.

Secondly, it simply gave Shaq time to rest his body and get ready for the post season. Since it was just a thumb injury, he could still run and condition himself for games and he apparently spent this time losing twenty pounds. Awesome for him and the Cavs. This reminds me of when he missed the first twenty games of the season the year the Heat won the Championship. Then it was a badly sprained ankle but the fact remains it is a good thing for him to miss time as he was fresher for the playoffs.

Bleacher Report Part 2....

2010-03-22T19:07:00.002-04:00

I'm going to make my second attempt at writing on Bleacher Report. The articles will focus on my NBA Effort Model, statistical examples of it, and creating dialogue about it. Using the community I can hopefully vet my ideas. I might also mention the Martingale Idea, and try to test losing streaks for significance.

Research Topic: Blowout wins

2010-03-22T18:57:00.001-04:00

It would be interesting to look at the worst defeat each team suffered each season, and then compare the score and spread of the next time they played that same opponent which handed them that bad loss.

That would bump up a teams effort for the Effort Model.

Performance = Skill*Effort

Payback in the NBA

2010-03-21T14:22:00.002-04:00

Two recent upsets occurred in the NBA.

The first was the Knicks beating of the Mavs by a score of 128-94. This most unlikely of scores was apparently due to the Knicks wanting "payback" for the 50 point home loss they endured at the hands of the Mavericks on January 24th.

Some quotes from the game: "We felt they'd take us lightly," said Douglas, making his first start since Nov. 18. "A lot of teams look at the schedule and say, 'Oh, that's the Knicks. That's a win.' But we've got to come out and compete every night.

"Revenge is sweet sometimes. That's a really good team over there but we caught them at the right time. They were ripe for the picking," said New York reserve Al Harrington, who had 20 points. "When you're rolling along and the Knicks are coming in, you figure you can score 150 points on 'em in your sleep. But that Knick team didn't show up today. We caught 'em by surprise."

"They remembered [the blowout in New York]," said Dallas' Shawn Marion, who scored 14 points. "They even said something to me about it before the game. They said they were going to give us a spanking."

This appeared to be an easy win for the Mavericks, but the Knicks came out focused and perhaps fearful of what would happen if they didn't.

The second game also involves the Mavericks, this time against Boston.

For this game, Rasheed Wallace vowed payback for the twenty point home loss they suffered. And they were focused and barely won.

These two games support my "energy and skill" theory, that any team on any night plays at a certain level defined by their energy and innate skill. Basically, a teams innate skill at 100% focus and energy, multiplied by whatever percentage of energy a team is playing at for the night. Lets say an average game is played at 75% energy, playoffs close to 95%, etc.

NBA Leader Martingale System 4

2010-03-13T17:36:00.002-05:00

The Lakers snapped their three game losing streak with a home win over Toronto, helped by a last second shot by Kobe Bryant. So the small sample of watching the Laker's losing streak while I blogged about losing streaks ended with a win. Infact, every losing streak ends with a win. The next two steps are to 1) create a summary of the final two seasons in NBA archives on ESPN's homepage and 2) start an excel sheet of pointspreads and moneylines to figure out an equation to go from point spread to moneylines. The reason for this is that while pointspread data for the last several seasons is readily available, moneyline data (to the best of my knowledge) is not. So I'll need to analyze that and come up with a model.

Then I can simulate (using excel) the bets I would have made the last couple of seasons on the NBA leaders and see how my bankroll would have done.

And that should be very interesting indeed.

NBA Leader Martingale System 3

2010-03-09T20:45:00.002-05:00

Quite coincidentally, the Lakers (with the best record in the West) have now lost three games in a row and play at home against Toronto tonight. If I were using my system, then this would be a must-win game for the Lakers because I would have lost three in a row, doubling my bet each time. I'd be running out of funds!

So it'll be interesting to see the results of this game.

NBA Leader Martingale System

2010-03-06T22:22:00.001-05:00

I just looked at the Vegas.com website and found no evidence of moneyline bets on the NBA. That freaked me out! So I went online and googled NBA point spread moneyline bets and was about to find a few websites that allowed it. As always, I'd much rather bet with a casino than a website. Interesting thing to look for the next time I'm in Vegas though.

NBA Leader Martingale System 2

2010-03-06T21:40:00.002-05:00

I've already compiled statistics for the NBA seasons of 2008-2009 and 2007-2008. To recap, I'm looking at the statistics of the top four teams in the league (by record) and recording their total wins, record after twenty games, point differential, and their two longest losing streaks. All statistics taken from the ESPN archives.

2006-2007

Dallas, 67-15, +7.2, 4 games, 2 games, 14-6.

Phoenix, 61-21, +7.3, 4 games, 3 games, 14-6.

San Antonio, 58-24, +8.4, 3 games, 2 games, 15-5.

Detroit, 53-29, +4.2, 3 games, 2 games, 13-7.

2005-2006

Detroit, 64-18, +6.7, 2 games, 2 games, 17-3.

San Antonio, 63-19, +6.8, 2 games, 2 games, 16-4.

Dallas, 60-22, +6.1, 3 games, 2 games, 15-5.

Phoenix, 54-28, +5.5, 3 games, 2 games, 13-7.

2004-2005

Phoenix, 62-20, +7.1, 6 games, 2 games, 17-3.

San Antonio, 59-23, +7.8, 3 games, 2 games, 16-4.

Miami, 59-23, +6.5, 4 games, 2 games, 13-7.

Dallas, 58-24, +5.7, 3 games, 3 games, 13-7.

After this season, there are two left on ESPN's archives and I will probably stop there. The 2003-2004 and 2002-2003 seasons are remaining.

NBA Leader Martingale System 1

2010-02-28T23:38:00.002-05:00

To start the research for the NBALMS, I will research the top 4 teams (by record), measure total wins, point differential, and duration of their two longest losing streaks, and record after 20 games (or 25% of the season).

2008-2009

Cleveland, 66-16, +8.9, 2 games, 2 games, 17-3.

Lakers, 65-17, +7.7, 2 games, 2 games, 17-3.

Boston, 62-20, +7.5, 4 games, 2 games, 18-2.

Orlando, 59-23, +6.7, 3 games, 2 games, 15-5.

2007-2008

Boston, 66-16, +10.3, 3 games, 2 games, 18-2.

Detroit, 59-23, +7.4, 3 games, 2 games, 14-6.

Lakers, 57-25, +7.3, 3 games, 3 games, 12-8.

New Orleans, 56-26, +5.3, 3 games, 3 games, 13-7.

San Antonio, 56-26, +4.8, 4 games, 3 games, 17-3.

I will go back as far as I can using ESPN's data, but so far, it looks like the longest losing streaks have been 4 games and three games.

The Martingale System revisited

2010-02-28T01:32:00.002-05:00

The Martingale System is a betting system whereby the bettor doubles his bets until he wins. The theory being that the event being bet upon will eventually result in a win, gaining back all the money lost and plus one extra betting unit. The problems will the Martingale system are well documented. The first being that the event being bet upon is independent. This means that a long string of losses does mean that a win is "due up" and more losses are equally probable.

To read more about the Martingale system, click here.

However, the Martingale system could be used on something that is not independent, like the outcomes of sports game. My original research was with respect to the points spread, and unfortunately the results were inconclusive.

However, what if I combined the Martingale system with research done by David Berri and Wayne Winston? David Berri talked about the short supply of tall people. What he means is there aren't enough seven footers who are skilled for each team to have one. Therefore, the competitive balance in the NBA is the worst of all the major sports leagues. Good teams continue to have good teams for a run of years because there are simply not enough talented big men.

Wayne Winston said that an NBA players performance one season is most strongly correlated to his performance the past season; compared to players in other leagues (NFL, MLB, NHL), it is a greater predictor of future performance.

So while Brett Favre or Tom Brady may have a record setting season one season and mediocre one the next, an All-Star NBA player will perform at a high level more consistently year to year.

This research confirms my earlier hunch, that top NBA teams don't lose games to inferior teams because of chance, but because of effort. That a top NBA team (like the Cavs or Lakers this season) wins 75% of the games it plays and most of the losses are when the team is lethargic.

This leads to my version of the Martingale System, whereby bets of increasing amounts are to be bet on a single top NBA team to win a game. If the team loses, they will likely try harder the next night to "avenge" the loss; and two losses in a row brings lots of publicity and media harassment, whereby the top team tries even harder. And a top NBA team, trying hard, is going to win a lot of games.

The NBA team "has money" thereby breaking the "no memory" independent variable weakness of the Martingale System.

I shall now do some analysis of top NBA teams and the lengths of their losing streaks over the past few seasons to determine the length of losing streaks for the top two or three teams in the league.

This could provide me with evidence of a new system that could yield a net positive return over infinite time.

Bingo!

Mathletics

2010-02-28T01:29:00.002-05:00

I finished reading Mathletics, by Wayne Winston, about a week ago. It is a much more technical book than Wages of Wins, which is itself a technical book. Wayne Winston does a lot of linear weights analysis to determine which sports have the most consistent performers, and which sports have the least consistent performers.

He found that basketball players performance are most dependent on how they performed last year. Football players, the least. And baseball, somewhere in between.

He obviously had many other findings, but the basketball section was the most interesting.

Wages of Wins

2010-02-06T14:50:00.003-05:00

I just finished reading Wages of Wins, by David Berri. The book was a birthday gift and after reading the other books I was given, it was time to crack open Wages of Wins. I've followed his blog for some time and really enjoy the posts and the insights he gives. It was time to read the book and I did.

I don't want to simply summarize the book or give chapter by chapter run down. Instead I'll list a few key points and also extrapolate a bit.

Scoring in the NBA is over valued with respect to paychecks and wins. High volume shooters who score hurt there team by using up so many shots and converting at a low percentage. Rebounding, defense, and assists are undervalue with respect to winning and pay.

This I already knew from his blogging. There is a heavy emphasis on regression analysis and multiple season data collection to come to conclusions. This makes sense. The more data, the more accurate the conclusions can be.

It also got me thinking about the proper place of anecdotal evidence. When I think of teams losing a lineman in football, especially a star lineman, and then losing, is there a way to properly study this? What about occurrences that are rare and so are essentially anecdotal? What about so-called black swans? This data do not necessarily lend themselves to the type of analysis that David Berri does. I noticed a difference between the types of analysis done; while I don't have the knowledge, database, or computing power to do the analysis he does, this blog can be more focused on anecdotal analysis and trying to distill low-frequency data analysis from the mountain of sports data being collected.

I don't have the means to do what David Berri does; but anyone can do what Nicolas Nassim Taleb does.

Rah!

Are the Lakers focused enough?

2010-02-06T13:42:00.002-05:00

The latest Laker debacle, a 126-113 defeat at home to the Denver Nuggets (playing without Carmelo Anthony) has made me want to write about the Lakers and there possible lack of focus.

Ron Artest wears shoes from a Chinese shoe company; he complains about foot pains and says that it feels like he is wearing lead boots and it has resulted in a lack of quickness on the court. Why is he doing this? The money. He is sponsored by them and has refused to switch to a better shoe.

Kobe Bryant has suffered many small injuries and has repeatedly refused to rest his body or seek treatment to fix them. He simply tries to play through the pain. But this will have a long-term cumulative effect on his game play and could manifest it self after a sustained period of stress....such as the playoffs.

They continue to take a band-aid approach to their point guard position, continuing to start Derek Fisher despite his defensive struggles and limited offensive creation. Rather than develop a younger talent and hope that he is ready for the playoffs, than are hoping that they won't need a good point guard to win the championship.

All these factors make me think the Lakers simply aren't as focused as they need to be to win a championship. Its not easy, after all.

Conference Championship Games wrap-up

2010-01-30T01:47:00.002-05:00

I thought the two games last weekend were great to watch. I enjoyed watching the Jets play the Colts. When the Jets led 17-6 I still thought it wasn't a big enough lead. I've rooted for teams to beat Peyton many a time and seen them build up a big lead, only to have it disappear. And I was amazed at how fast they scored their first touchdown, at the end of the first half.

The Jets were simply outmatched.

The NFC game was a whole other story. I think the Vikings were clearly the better team that day; if they hadn't had 5 turnovers, they would have won. Its that simple. I also felt like I was watching a primitive sport in overtime when a random coin flip was decided to basically determine who won the game. The Saints won the coin flip, marched down the field aid by a fortuitous play, and kicked a field goal to set off a celebration all over Louisiana.

The Colts will likely win the superbowl. It was a great game to watch. I'll start covering the NBA soon after the NFL season ends.

Conference Championship Games

2010-01-24T14:56:00.003-05:00

A few quick thoughts on the games about to start:

The Saint's safety used to play with Favre (or against him regularly, I'm not sure). Anyways, having a safety and QB who are very familiar with each other will benefit one team more than the other. My guess is its the safety who can tell his teammates about Favre and make better reads.

Brett Favre is 40 and playing very well behind an excellent offensive line. What does that mean? A good offensive line means even a 40 year old can make the playoffs and pro bowl. A bad offensive line and no QB, no matter how talented, could make the playoffs.

Did the Colts create a monster by laying down against the Jets?

Only time will tell!

Urban Meyer's Chest Pains

2010-01-09T19:56:00.002-05:00

I've read the book Urban's Way, an exposition about Urban Meyer and his body of work as a football coach. Throughout the book a few key themes popped up: his endless drive to succeed, the enormous pressure he put on himself, and the incredible hours he put in to achieve that success.

He was bound to be worn down. It is now widely known that he went to the hospital after Florida's loss to Alabama. The strain of Florida's 22 game win streak was literally killing him.

My hope is he will return to coaching with his health stable and not at risk for his life. I'm a big fan of his and wish him the best.

Book Review: When The Game Was Ours

2010-01-09T19:45:00.003-05:00

For my birthday, I was given When The Game Was Ours, authored by Magic Johnson and Larry Bird, with Jackie MacMullan. It is a fun and entertaining read. About 330 pages long, I had it finished within a week.

It details the careers of the two title athletes, beginning with their high school careers, their meeting in the NCAA Championship game, and their intertwined professional careers.

I learned a few key points from the book. The first is that they were both obsessed with winning, and that obsession drove their success, individually and on their respective team.

Also, Magic and Larry were both aware of a certain team mentality that either encouraged or hindered success. During their title winning years, the team was more focused, more engaged, practicing harder, and winning more games.

During their non winning years, they noticed that support players weren't giving their all, and injuries were also a factor. Motivation and effort were noticeable factors. And that hints that some teams are trying to win a championship and some aren't. Even some good teams are simply going through the motions and not actively trying to improve.

A sharp observer could find these details.

All in all, a good read. Thanks Dad!

Final Thoughts on Rose Bowl

2009-12-31T20:44:00.002-05:00

The Rose Bowl is tomorrow. Below are a few updates:

1) Terrelle Pryor is playing with a slight tear in the MCL in one of his knees. Its always possible that he exacerbates the injury or plays less than perfect because of it. This is a plus.

2) The Pac-10 has not been doing well in bowl games.

#21 Stanford lost to Oklahoma (31-27).

#18 Oregon State lost to #14 BYU (44-20).

#20 Arizona lost to #22 Nebraska (33-0).

Cal lost to #23 Utah (37-27).

All in all this is not good. Infact, its a terrible record for the Pac-10. 0-4 in bowl games so far.

However, Oregon also beat Oregon State, Arizona, and Cal. They lost to Stanford (then unranked) the week after demolishing USC at home.

Obviously I would prefer the Pac-10 to be winning its bowl games, meaning the relative strength of the Pac-10 is better.

However, what matters is what happens tomorrow between Oregon and Ohio State. Go Ducks!

Celtics-Clippers

2009-12-29T01:13:00.002-05:00

The Clippers were blown out three games in a row....the Celtics had won 11 straight road games and just beaten Orlando at home...surely this game was ripe to be a blow out, right?

Instead, the Clippers battled the Celtics all night and finally took the lead with Baron Davis' game-winning shot as time expired.

So what happened? Well, the NBA happened, thats what. The league is stacked, even losing teams have veterans and talented players.

But more to the point, the game above highlights the emotional context of the NBA. The Clippers had been beaten badly by teams inferior to the C's. Now they are at home facing the juggernaut Celtics. They were scared, nervous, worried about a blow out, and played with ferocious energy.

They won.

The NBA. Where amazing happens.

OHST vs Oregon Preview

2009-12-27T21:34:00.003-05:00

This article is meant to compare these two teams and make an educated guess about the bowl game.

Coaching: Ohio State's coach is Jim Tressel. His game plan typically emphasizes defense, conservative offensive playcalling, lots of punting, etc. He has been coaching since 1986, has been the Head Coach at Ohio State since 2001, won a national championship, and his job is secure. The Rose Bowl is a BCS bowl but is nothing for the program to be excited about, having been to three national championship games since 2001.

This is Chip Kelly's first season as a head coach. He has been the offensive coordinator at Oregon since 2007. His attack led the Pac-10 in his first season in points scored. This bowl game is seen as a step up for Oregon, and is their first BCS bowl since 2002.

The motivation factor will be on Chip Kelly's side. It is his first bowl game and he will be more interested and motivated.

As far as technical knowledge, I believe there to be a diminishing return to experience and knowledge. While Tressel has the advantage in preparing his team for bowl games, its unclear to me how much of an advantage it is.

Ranked Opponents: I am a firm believer that the ending ranking, not the midseason ranking, indicates the true skill of a team. For example, USC was ranked #4 when they lost to Oregon, but have clearly proven to college football followers everywhere that they are not the fourth best team in the land.

So lets look at their ranked opponents and how they played against them:

Oregon lost to #6 Boise State, beat #23 Utah, beat #24 USC, lost to #21 Stanford, beat #20 Arizona, and beat #18 Oregon State. Also of note, they beat Purdue.

Ohio State lost to #24 USC, beat #25 Wisconsin, beat #13 Penn State, and beat #10 Iowa. And they lost to Purdue.

Here Ohio State has the advantage of beating two highly ranked teams (Penn State and Iowa) but Oregon has played half their season against ranked opponents (tougher average schedule).

Common Opponents: Oregon and Ohio State played two common opponents: USC (home games for both teams) and Purdue (home for Oregon, away for Ohio State). Oregon won both games and Ohio State lost both games. This seems like an important detail. Especially the USC game. With hindsight we realize USC was lucky to upset Ohio State by scoring on a last minute touchdown.

Schematics: Ohio State and Jim Tressel have struggled against the option and spread in the past. Look at their performance this year against Navy, and Florida in the national championship game. Also, Texas when they had Vince Young. Oregon has a fast, small, and athletic group of scorers who thrive on open field running. Ohio has struggled in the past against these teams.

Oregon has this season handled physical teams with mixed results. They lost to a fired up Boise State team in Idaho and to a physical Stanford team. They did however beat USC easily and handled their difficult schedule with aplomb.

Stadium: I anticipate the Rose Bowl being a home game for Oregon, as it is their first trip in many years there and Oregon's proximity to the Rose Bowl (relative to Ohio State).

X-factor: Ohio State has lost three straight bowl games. Jim Tressel won't want to graduate a class that hasn't won a bowl game.

Secondly, Ohio State has lost three players due to academic ineligibility.

Conclusion: Oregon has the bulk of the advantages.

NBA Christmas Day Notes

2009-12-27T19:43:00.002-05:00

I read the preview about the Lakers game on Christmas, when they played the Cavaliers.

The Cavs talked about how the game was a test for them, to see where they were and how they measured up against the Lakers. They frequently used the word "test" and insisted it was a big game.

Conversely, the Lakers described how they lost to Orlando twice last year in the regular season before beating them in the playoffs. They said it was just another game and not to draw too much meaning from it.

The Cavaliers won handily and lead the final 40 minutes of the game, often by twenty points or more.

This should have been a real red flag for the Lakers, who were non-chalant about the game and were blown out.

NBA Notes

2009-12-24T23:20:00.004-05:00

When the Lakers held Utah to six points in the fourth quarter and came from behind to beat them, they travelled two days later to play at Utah. And promptly had their double-digit win streak broken.

Remember: Basketball is a game of effort. There is non-sustainable effort, and sustainable effort. A better team with equal effort will win the game. An inferior team with superior effort will overcome a better opponent.

And I don't just mean hustle during the game. I mean locking in on a game, practicing extra hard, and getting everyone "in the zone" days before hand.

Ohio State versus Oregon

2009-12-19T15:35:00.003-05:00

Ohio State plays Oregon in the Rose Bowl this year; the game is still two weeks away. Oregon is favored by 3.5 points over Ohio State. My initial reaction was that Oregon should win by more than that, and a few things lead me to that consideration.

One is that they both played USC at home. Ohio State lost on a last minute touchdown, while Oregon blew out USC and trampled all over their defense.

The second is that Jim Tressel has suffered notable losses to option quarterbacks, and at least struggled more against them than they do against conventional attacks. Losses to Vince Young, Illinois two years ago, and the near to defeat to Navy (Navy?!) at home highlight his teams struggles. I think it is a combination of the rarity with which they face option attacks and simply a facet of Jim Tressel's coaching philosophy. He doesn't like to take risks, he doesn't like uncontrolled chaos, etc., that the option attack is more lethal than normal against him. He recruits players and coaches them to do specific functions really, really well and he tries to keep the game within those parameters. He's had a lot of success doing that (one national championship, three national championship appearances) but has also seen his teams struggle against the spontaneous playmaking and athleticism of spread and option attacks (like the loss to Florida).

This will require more thought and analysis, plus a return to Bleacher Report is called for!

Miami vs Dallas Part 2,3,4,5,& 6...

2009-12-19T02:13:00.002-05:00

I just read how Dallas hasn't lost in Miami since their playoff defeat there four years ago. They have a lot of painful memories of that loss and still try to stick it to them. And their record against Miami since then has been very, very good. And basketball is a game of motivation and focus.

Dallas simply cares a lot about winning against Miami, to try to ease the pain of that defeat. So I can't help but think that it would have been a good bet to go with Dallas against Miami. And in general any team that gains supremacy over an opponent who handed them a bitter post-season loss, will consistently deliver victories against them. Being the better team, it is a matter of effort and focus. The painful memory will ensure both.

This is a formula that could be applied to the future.

NBA Notes

2009-12-18T02:28:00.003-05:00

I was reading about Andrew Bynums rebounding woes, and how they have coincided with Pau Gasol's extraordinary rebounding performance. And people have been studying film, trying to figure out why Bynum can't be more like Pau Gasol.

And it seems clear to me that the two are related. With two seven footers on the team, if one is getting 22 rebounds in a game, the other simply can't be getting that many. Of the rebounds that fall near the rim and in the key (the ones a big man will collect), there can't be more than 30 or so a game per team.

A typical game has about 50 missed shots. Most fall within the key (where big men on both teams fight for the rebounds) and 15 or so rebound long and the guards and small forwards fight over them.

So if Gasol is hogging all the rebounds (and getting all the accolades) Bynum can't be blamed too much.

Also, the Hawks are this year's "overachieving" team, running up the score at every opportunity and enjoying the ride and their performances. They should handily cover the spread the majority of the time this season. This prediction is based on the data I did last year by watching teams' performances versus the spread for the entire 2008-2009 season.

Thoughts on the Heisman

2009-12-14T01:30:00.002-05:00

The Heisman Trophy has, to me, lost some of its prestige. It is supposed to be given to the season's most outstanding player. But it is frequently given to the running back or quarterback on the top ranked team.

Team performance has a considerable effect on Heisman voting, but it is an individual award. This makes no sense.

Also the voting is divided by region, and the Heisman Voting regulations stipulate: For Heisman voting purposes, the nation is divided into six regions—each of which get 145 votes. Put another way, each region gets exactly 16.67 percent of the votes. However, each region does not constitute an even one-sixth of the population. Three regions (Far West, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic) have larger populations than that – and three have less (Northeast, South, and Southwest). In fact, the Far West has the greatest population at 21.1% of the country and the Northeast has the least – 11.9%.

To me this is a strange way to vote and decide a winner. I also disagree with the fact that it almost always goes to a quarterback or runningback and never to a defensive or offensive lineman. The award would be much more prestigious if it were spread evenly throughout the positions, simply trying to highlight the most outstanding players regardless of stats.

Kobe's game winning shot

2009-12-09T20:46:00.003-05:00

I watched Kobe hit a crazy game winning shot over Dwayne Wade in a game recently. And after he hit it, he was surrounded by teammates who were cheering, congratulating him, etc.

The teammates all like each other. Any complaints about Kobe dividing the team or being a negative influence on the team appear to be overrated.

Florida's Woes

2009-12-09T20:40:00.003-05:00

Florida ended up losing the SEC Championship game to Alabama, a resounding 31-13 defeat. Two things of note: their best defensive lineman, the MVP of last year's SEC Championship game, was suspended prior to the game for getting a DUI about five days before the game.

Second, I just read that defensive coordinator was officially hired by Louisville, just five days after the loss. He most assuredly had been contacted by Louisville before the SEC Championship game and had heard about their interest even earlier.

So did that help his focus? I'm sure it did. It certainly didn't IMPROVE his focus. And all the distractions inside his own head, visions of grandeur, etc., contributed to Florida's defeat. But thats how it goes in sports. The winners get copied, and the best copy of a program is a coordinator, or even better, the actual head coach of the program.

Lastly, Florida was a five point favorite.

The attack on Florida begins!

2009-12-03T02:11:00.002-05:00

I was reading that the defensive coordinator for Florida, which has had one of the top defenses in the college ranks these last four years, is being sought after by the program at Louisville.

This is consistent with the idea that successful programs breed success in their coaches, and vice versa, and thus programs that struggled hire away coaches from good programs.

But that added bonus for Louisville, an SEC team, is two fold: they weaken Florida by taking away their defensive coordinator (who runs the defense and calls the plays), and the next time they play Florida, they will have a coach who knows their offense, defense, and personnel inside and out.

Upset alert the next time Louisville plays Florida.

Bill Belichick's 4th down call

2009-11-16T23:31:00.002-05:00

I like his call. It was aggressive, and determined to go for the win, not just avoid losing! I haven't been blogging lately, I just haven't had the urge to. Not sure why.

Week #10 Lines

2009-11-07T00:24:00.000-05:00

Boise St.	21	LOUISIANA TECH	50

NCAA Football

Saturday, Nov. 7

MICHIGAN STATE	20	Western Michigan	54½

CINCINNATI	16½	Connecticut

PITTSBURGH	21½	Syracuse	50

IOWA	16½	Northwestern	45

MINNESOTA	7	Illinois	51½

WEST VIRGINIA	20	Louisville	54

NC STATE	6	Maryland

GEORGIA TECH	16	Wake Forest

NORTH CAROLINA	10	Duke	43½

Wisconsin	10½	INDIANA	54½

ARKANSAS	7	South Carolina	53½

Oklahoma State	7	IOWA STATE	51

MISSOURI	14½	Baylor	44½

FLORIDA	35	Vanderbilt	47

Byu	13	WYOMING	48

NOTRE DAME	11	Navy	55½

SMU	17½	Rice	56

Utep	7	TULANE	57½

ALABAMA	7½	Lsu	39½

TEXAS	36½	Central Florida	48

Kent	3	AKRON	41½

AIR FORCE	17	Army	36

Kansas	2½	KANSAS STATE	57½

Oklahoma	5½	NEBRASKA	41½

PENN STATE	3½	Ohio State	40

Tcu	24½	SAN DIEGO STATE	47½

Fresno State	7½	IDAHO	70

UTAH	27½	New Mexico	46

ARIZONA	33	Washington State	60

CALIFORNIA	7	Oregon State	60½

UCLA	4½	Washington

Oregon	6½	STANFORD	57

Texas A&m	3	COLORADO	56½

MIAMI FLORIDA	13½	Virginia	45

TENNESSEE	26	Memphis	52

CLEMSON	8½	Florida State

TULSA	1	Houston U	67½

Usc	10	ARIZONA STATE	45½

MICHIGAN	6	Purdue	53

UNLV	1	Colorado State	61½

Utah State	2½	HAWAII	60

UAB	6½	Florida Atlantic	66½

NORTH TEXAS	1	UL Monroe	65½

Troy	24	WESTERN KENTUCKY	67

ARKANSAS STATE	13½	UL Lafayette	47½

MIDDLE TENN ST	13	Florida Intl	54

NCAA Football

Sunday, Nov. 8

Nevada	14	SAN JOSE STATE	62

The NBA Season has started...

2009-10-30T22:09:00.003-04:00

I've been a bit remiss in making posts. Thats partly because I don't currently have cable, or even a couch to watch it on!

So the data coming into my brain has been limited by ESPN's website and a few other select sites. However I have made big progress on finding an edge when picking pro and college football games. If you've read any of my posts, I'm sure you're familiar with it.

However the NBA season is upon us, and I've got a few observations to make:

The Celtics are going to start strong again; no surprise there. I've stated before I'm a big fan of Rasheed Wallace's game and his size.

The problem again will be that they will likely wear themselves out by the end of the season and probably have some injuries along the way due to playing so hard.

The team that won't have the problem is the Lakers. The addition of Ron Artest adds another slacker/big time player, and they don't need any more. And I think they will rest on their laurels, so to speak, because of their championship win last season.

I expect the Lakers to win fewer games that last year.

Also, the Cavs are going to be terrible with Shaq. They badly over achieved last year and they added a big, slow doofus past his prime. I like LeBron and just wish his teammates were better and he didn't have Shaq.

Week #9 Lines

2009-10-29T23:48:00.000-04:00

Thursday, Oct. 29

VIRGINIA TECH	16½	North Carolina	43½

NCAA Football

Friday, Oct. 30

West Virginia	3	SOUTH FLORIDA	47½

NCAA Football

Saturday, Oct. 31

CONNECTICUT	7½	Rutgers	47

Cincinnati	14½	SYRACUSE	51

BOSTON COLLEGE	6	Central Michigan	51½

Ohio	6½	BALL STATE	44

VIRGINIA	7	Duke	47½

IOWA	17½	Indiana	47½

WISCONSIN	6½	Purdue	53½

Miami Florida	7	WAKE FOREST	51

FLORIDA STATE	9	NC State	64

NO ILLINOIS	12	Akron	42

OHIO STATE	44	New Mexico State	48½

Georgia Tech	11½	VANDERBILT	46½

TEXAS A&M	7	Iowa State	60½

Mississippi	4	AUBURN	50

ARKANSAS	38	Eastern Michigan	60½

KENT	2½	Western Michigan	50½

Nebraska	13	BAYLOR	45½

TULSA	16½	Smu	53

UTEP	7	Uab	64

BOISE ST.	35	San Jose State	56½

FLORIDA	15	Georgia	48

Toledo	5½	MIAMI OHIO	56½

OREGON STATE	10	Ucla	48

NAVY	6½	Temple	40

California	6½	ARIZONA STATE	52½

Michigan	7	ILLINOIS	53½

Missouri	3½	COLORADO	46½

OKLAHOMA	28	Kansas State	48½

Texas	9	OKLAHOMA STATE	51½

Hawaii		NEVADA

TCU	35	Unlv	57½

Air Force	6	COLORADO STATE	44

Penn State	14½	NORTHWESTERN	47

IDAHO	3	Louisiana Tech	56

FRESNO STATE	17	Utah State	63

KENTUCKY	3½	Mississippi State	46

TEXAS TECH	6½	Kansas	67½

SAN DIEGO STATE	16	New Mexico	51

NOTRE DAME	27½	Washington State	60

TENNESSEE	5½	South Carolina	40

Usc	3	OREGON	46½

HOUSTON U	6½	Southern Miss	62½

UTAH	17	Wyoming	43½

LSU	35½	Tulane	45½

Michigan State	3½	MINNESOTA	46½

LOUISVILLE	3	Arkansas State	50½

FLORIDA INTL	3½	UL Lafayette	56

NORTH TEXAS	11	Western Kentucky	66

FLORIDA ATLANTIC	1	Middle Tenn St	66

TROY	16½	UL Monroe	58

Coastal Carolina		CLEMSON

NCAA Football

Sunday, Nov. 1

CENTRAL FLORIDA	4	Marshall	43

Tebow stymied by his old offensive coordinator...

2009-10-24T23:36:00.001-04:00

ESPN game recap:

STARKVILLE, Miss. -- Florida's offense got just what it needed: Help from Mississippi State.

Chris Rainey scored from 8 yards out after the Bulldogs stumbled on a fake punt and Dustin Doe may have slipped a fumble on an interception return for a touchdown past the referees as the second-ranked Gators came away with a tough win, 29-19 over old friend Dan Mullen Saturday night.

The Bulldogs (3-5, 1/3 SEC) stymied the Gators (7-0, 5-0) near the goal line all night, but Rainey's run and Doe's 23-yard return helped Florida extend the nation's longest winning streak to 17 games.

Tim Tebow scored on a 26-yard run and picked up big chunks of yardage outside the Bulldogs 20. But the Gators offense is still struggling and doesn't resemble the juggernaut that won last season's national title.

The Bulldogs kept it close with a pair of interception returns for touchdowns from Johnthan Banks. Tebow had just one in his career before the game against his old offensive coordinator's new team.

They also kept the Gators out of the end zone on their first four trips inside the 20, leading to three short field goals and Banks' first TD return, which went for 100 yards.

With Mississippi State's offense going nowhere against the Gators' nasty defense, Mullen gambled on fourth-and-2 at his own 27. He called for a fake punt, with Robert Elliott taking a pitch on the reverse from the punter. But Elliott tripped trying to make a cut and lost 5 yards.

Six plays later, including a fourth-and-short conversion by Tebow, Rainey found a seem and darted into the end zone. The Gators finally had some cushion, 23-13.

The Gators have scored seven touchdowns in 25 trips to the red zone in SEC play this season.

After No. 1 Alabama needed a blocked field goal on the game's last play to beat Tennessee 12-10, the Gators might have had a chance to grab the top-ranking back in the AP poll.

But Florida worked almost as hard putting away the Bulldogs as Alabama did against the Vols.

And the Gators might have gotten a break on a close call.

Two plays after Rainey's touchdown, Doe grabbed a deflected pass at the 23 and found a path to the end zone.

But the linebacker started celebrating and slowing down before the goal line and Bulldogs receiverBrandon McRae knocked the ball out of Doe's hand. It was ruled a touchdown and it stood up on video review. Had the score been overturned, the Bulldogs could have had the ball at the 20.

Red zone struggles were the topic all week in Gainesville after 23-20 win over Arkansas that cost the Gators the No. 1 ranking. Florida was first in the BCS with Alabama second.

Florida entered the game 76th in red-zone efficiency. Players and coaches attributed it to several things: Poor play by wide receivers and offensive linemen, the loss of Mullen and do-everything playmaker Percy Harvin, Tebow's recent concussion and new offensive coordinator Steve Addazio's play-calling.

All that talk did little to change things Saturday, and the Bulldogs tied it up 13-13 early in the third quarter in a field goal.

Tebow and the Gators had no trouble moving the ball outside the 20. The Heisman winner ripped off an impressive 26-yard scoring run when he jumped for a bad snap, faked a pitch, stiff-armed a defender to get into the open field, then slipped the ball past the pylon on a dive for the end zone.

Florida's defense also came up with a few big plays. The Gators were without middle linebacker Brandon Spikes and a pair of defensive linemen, but still kept Mississippi State's offense out of the end zone and Anthony Dixonin check, snapping his string of five straight 100-yard rushing games.

The critical part is that Tebow went against his old offensive coordinator, and the offense really struggled.